01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Venezia to win61%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serie AStadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia26°10 km/h
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Veneziavs
LecceLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Venezia (61%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Venezia – Lecce · Serie A
1 · Venezia 61%X 22%17% Lecce · 2
61%
22%
17%
Analysis: Venezia – Lecce
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
61% — that's the model's sharp nod to Venezia, a team seemingly poised to hold court against Lecce in their Serie A clash. Despite a small head-to-head sample where Lecce holds a slight edge with one win and one draw, the present form and expected goals paint a different landscape. Venezia's expected tally of 1.89 goals dwarfs Lecce's meager 0.74, suggesting a clear attacking superiority from the hosts.
Venezia enters this contest with the model's blessings, hinting at a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline, each holding a 13% likelihood. This isn't a matchup bursting with goals, as the 49% probability for over 2.5 goals implies. It's more about Venezia's capacity to keep Lecce at bay while asserting their own offensive prowess. The 45% chance of both teams finding the net reinforces this narrative of a tightly controlled game.
Lecce, despite their head-to-head edge, lacks the firepower to tilt the scales. Their 17% win probability is a testament to their struggles on the road and against a Venezia side geared up for a win. A scoreless or minimal scoring affair seems likely, especially given the model's modest anticipation of goals.
Venezia finds themselves not only as favorites but also a tempting proposition for the sharp bettors. With a substantial 39% value edge at odds of 2.28 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, backing them offers a taste of genuine value. In a match where form and stats converge to favor the home side, the savvy punter would be wise to consider Venezia not just as favorites, but as value-laden victors.
VeneziaForm LDWLL
Key players
- Alessio ZerbinRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.16
- Kike PerezCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
- Alfred DuncanCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
LecceForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #19xGA #13xT #19xP/match #14Points #17
Key players
- Medon BerishaCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
- Walid CheddiraFxG 0.20 · xT 0.01
- Oumar Jacky NgomFxG 0.05 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Venezia – Lecce
Predicted score matrix
Lecce →
Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–15.0%
0–22.0%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–013.4%
1–110.4%
1–23.7%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–012.9%
2–19.5%
2–23.5%
2–30.9%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.1%
3–16.0%
3–22.2%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–05.9%
4+–14.4%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.2-013%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
1,89–0,74
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.68
Over 2,549%
@2.21EV+8%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Venezia to win61%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Lion Lauberbach to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Lion Lauberbach to score34%
- Ylber Ramadani to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Venezia61% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+39%reference odds
- 1 · Venezia61% probability@2.28BetssonEV+39%reference odds
- 1 · Venezia61% probability@2.28NordicbetEV+39%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Venezia | X | 2 · Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 39% 2.28 | 3.15 | 3.35 |
| Betsson | EV+ 39% 2.28 | 3.15 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 39% 2.28 | 3.15 | 3.35 |
Odds updated 19 Aug, 16:37
Odds movement
10 %
44 %39 %
2.28 → 2.28
X0 %
33 %28 %
3.15 → 3.15
2-1 %
31 %26 %
3.40 → 3.35
Over 2,50 %
46 %41 %
2.21 → 2.21
Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVenezia 0Draw 1Lecce 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Venezia
Lecce
Lecce (28–50)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lecce
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lecce
| The goalkeepers | Venezia | Wladimiro Falcone (Lecce) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | – | 110 |
| Save % | – | 69% |
| xG prevented | – | 55% |
| Claims | – | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Venezia vs Lecce according to our model?
The model gives Venezia a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Venezia 61%, draw 22%, Lecce 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.