01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Benevento or draw (X2)53%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Serie BStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno28°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
AscoliPossession controlvs
BeneventoBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Benevento (39%)Soft draw
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Ascoli – Benevento · Serie B
1 · Ascoli 39%X 22%39% Benevento · 2
39%
22%
39%
Analysis: Ascoli – Benevento
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: With identical win probabilities of 39%, Ascoli and Benevento are evenly matched on paper. The most striking tension in this matchup lies in their contrasting styles and defensive records. Ascoli's possession-based approach may seem robust, yet they've been shipping goals at an alarming rate, averaging 2.7 expected goals against per match. By contrast, Benevento's more balanced and physical setup has yielded a considerably sturdier defensive record, with an xGA of only 1.1 per match.
Despite Ascoli's early-season points advantage, the underlying numbers tell a different story. The hosts' defensive frailties could be their undoing against a Benevento side that, while struggling for points, has shown resilience and potential to capitalize on such weaknesses. Benevento's xPoints at 3.1, starkly contrasting with Ascoli's 1.3, indicate that Benevento may have been unlucky rather than simply underperforming.
The model leans towards Benevento Calcio as the most likely outcome, with a 1-1 scoreline being the most probable at 12%. However, given the disparity in defensive solidity, a narrow victory for the visitors at 2-1 is plausible and sits just behind at 9%. The likelihood of both teams finding the net is pegged at 58%, suggesting action at both ends but not an outright goal spree. The expected goals tally of 1.66 for Ascoli and 1.25 for Benevento supports this, hinting at a contest where fine margins could decide the winner.
For those seeking a sharp betting angle, Benevento's odds of winning offer significant value. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all pricing them at 3.35, there's a 30% edge according to the model's 39% probability for an away win. It's a calculated risk, acknowledging both the strengths and vulnerabilities of the traveling side against a leaky Ascoli defense.
AscoliForm WD
League ranking xG #5xGA #20xT #3xP/match #20Points #5
Key players
- Andrea SilipoRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.16
- Simone D'UffiziLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.28
- Marcos CuradoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.45
BeneventoForm LD
League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #13xP/match #8Points #17
Key players
- Francesco Paolo SalveminiFxG 0.59 · xT 0.01
- Davide LamestaRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.29
- Luigi CherubiniLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Ascoli – Benevento
Predicted score matrix
Benevento →
Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–16.5%
0–24.3%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–08.8%
1–111.7%
1–27.1%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.5%
2–19.4%
2–25.8%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.2%
3–23.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.1%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,66–1,25
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@1.79
Over 2,556%
@2.05EV+12%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Benevento or draw (X2)53%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Benevento39% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · Benevento39% probability@3.05BetssonEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · Benevento39% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ascoli | X | 2 · Benevento |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.25 | 3.10 | EV+ 19% 3.05 |
| Betsson | 2.25 | 3.10 | EV+ 19% 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.25 | 3.10 | EV+ 19% 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.37 | EV+ 19% 3.05 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 04:33
Odds movement
1-3 %
43 %38 %
2.39 → 2.33
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.40 → 3.37
2+4 %
34 %29 %
2.93 → 3.05
Over 2,5-3 %
48 %43 %
2.11 → 2.05
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ascoli
Benevento
Ascoli (3–2)
Benevento (2–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ascoli
Benevento
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ascoli
Benevento
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ascoli | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.73 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.41 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Ascoli | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.83 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.56 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 442 | 390 |
| Passes against per match | 227 | 381 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.4 | 29.7 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Ascoli | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 6.6 | 9.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.6 |
| Other | Ascoli | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.84 |
| The goalkeepers | Samuele Vitale (Ascoli) | Gianmarco Vannucchi (Benevento) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 3 |
| Save % | 80% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 16% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ascoli vs Benevento according to our model?
The model gives Benevento a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ascoli 39%, draw 22%, Benevento 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.