Ascoli vs Carrarese: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Serie B29 August 2026Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno30°26 km/h

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AscoliPossession control

CarraresePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Ascoli (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Carrarese @ 4.12 (+21 %)

1 · Ascoli 41%X 30%29% Carrarese · 2

41%

30%

29%

Analysis: Ascoli – Carrarese

Erik Lindberg · 27 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Three points already on the board for Ascoli contrast sharply with Carrarese's slow start. Yet, dig deeper into the numbers, and the picture isn't so clear. The 1-1 scoreline lurks as most likely at 13%, just nudging out a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts. Ascoli's expected goals of 1.26 give them a slight edge over Carrarese's 1.07, suggesting they might eke out a tight advantage. But both teams share a possession-control style, indicating a midfield battle, with few clear chances materializing.

Despite the initial results, Carrarese's xPoints (1.4) outshine Ascoli's (0.4). Carrarese's xGA of 1.2 per match also suggests a more stable defense compared to Ascoli's leaky 3.4. Although Ascoli has the early points advantage, the visitors' underlying numbers reveal a side that could frustrate their hosts, especially if they tighten up at the back.

A dull 1-1 or 1-0 outcome seems plausible, with under 2.5 goals edging closer. For those hunting value, Carrarese at 4.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers an 18% edge on the model's 29% win probability. It's a calculated risk on a night likely short on fireworks.

Ascoli

Form W

League ranking xG #10xGA #20xT #19xP/match #20Points #5

Carrarese

Form DLDLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #12xT #16xP/match #10Points #14

Key players

Filippo OlianaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Elhadj Moustapha CisseFxG 0.22 · xT -0.01
Niccolo BelloniCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Ascoli – Carrarese

Predicted score matrix

Carrarese →

Ascoli →

0–010.1%

0–110.0%

0–25.6%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.8%

1–113.5%

1–27.0%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.7%

2–18.3%

2–24.4%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.2%

3–13.5%

3–21.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,07

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.55

Over 2,541%

@2.30

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ascoli or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ascoli or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Samuele Vitale to score9%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Mattia Finotto to score21%
Nicolo Calabrese to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Carrarese29% probability@4.12PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
2 · Carrarese29% probability@4.00BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
2 · Carrarese29% probability@4.00BetssonEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ascoli	X	2 · Carrarese
Betsafe	1.95	3.05	EV+ 18% 4.00
Betsson	1.95	3.05	EV+ 18% 4.00
Nordicbet	1.95	3.05	EV+ 18% 4.00
Pinnacle	2.00	3.20	EV+ 21% 4.12

Odds updated 28 Aug, 06:40

Odds movement

1+3 %

50 %45 %

1.94 → 2.00

X-1 %

32 %27 %

3.24 → 3.20

2-4 %

25 %20 %

4.30 → 4.12

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Carrarese

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ascoli (2–1)

Carrarese (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ascoli

Carrarese

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ascoli

Carrarese

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ascoli	Carrarese
Points	3	0
xPoints	0.4	1.4
xG per match	1.1	0.73
xGA per match	3.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.58	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.54	0.57

Playing style	Ascoli	Carrarese
Build-up efficiency	0.14	0.3
Field tilt	0.4	0.34
xT per match	0.38	0.55
xTA per match	2	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	32	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.28
Entries into the box per match	11	7
Entries into the box against	19	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.63
Passes per match	345	331
Passes against per match	285	362
Switches of play per match	13.2	17.7
Long balls per match	25	28

Set pieces	Ascoli	Carrarese
xG from free kicks	0.22	0.01
Corners per match	3	2
Corners against per match	5.1	2.9
xG per corner	0.06	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.8	0.67

Other	Ascoli	Carrarese
Throw-in control	0.73	0.56

The goalkeepers	Nicholas Rizzo (Ascoli)	Fabio Ruggeri (Carrarese)
Saves	5	3
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ascoli vs Carrarese according to our model?

The model gives Ascoli a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ascoli 41%, draw 30%, Carrarese 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.