01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Südtirol or draw (X2)66%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Serie BStadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento28°0,5 mm16 km/h
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BeneventoBalanced & physical1–1
SüdtirolCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Südtirol (40%)
Benevento – Südtirol · Serie B
1 · Benevento 32%X 28%40% Südtirol · 2
32%
28%
40%
Analysis: Benevento – Südtirol
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Benevento's defense will be under scrutiny as they face a Südtirol side that thrives on counter-attacks and precision crossing. The stats are revealing: Benevento's expected goals against (xGA) sit at a worrying 1.7 per match, which could spell trouble against a Südtirol team adept at exploiting defensive lapses. Südtirol, in contrast, have managed to keep their xGA at a mere 0.86, indicative of their defensive discipline.
The numbers paint a compelling picture. Südtirol not only have the upper hand in points with three compared to Benevento's zero, but they also lead in expected points, suggesting their early-season form is not a fluke. Benevento's expected goals (xG) of 0.92 per match is higher than Südtirol's 0.57, offering a flicker of hope for the hosts if they can capitalize on their chances. Yet, with the visitors' robust defensive setup, opportunities might be scarce.
Model probabilities lean towards Südtirol with a 40% chance of victory, backed by the most likely scorelines favoring a 1-1, 0-1, or 1-2 outcome. Even though the odds of both teams scoring sit at 56%, the prospect of Südtirol's defensive resilience suggests a low-scoring affair is plausible. The over 2.5 goals metric at 52% shows a slight tendency towards more goals, but against Südtirol's structured defense, this might not manifest.
For the value hunters, Südtirol's victory at odds of 3.6 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers a 45% edge according to the model, marking a rare opportunity for a calculated risk. With Südtirol's defensive control and Benevento's vulnerability at the back, a 1-1 draw is the single most likely scoreline, though a narrow win for the visitors remains a strong possibility, underscoring the potential value in backing Südtirol.
BeneventoForm L
League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #14xP/match #16Points #16
SüdtirolForm LDDDW
League ranking xG #20xGA #7xT #17xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Andrea GiorginiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
- Simone TronchinCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.00
- Riccardo StivanelloCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Benevento 32% · Draw 28% · Südtirol 40%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SudtirolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 16,56fair 9,05+83 %
MissMatchresultat - BeneventoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,30fair 10,99-24 %
MissMatch prediction: Benevento – Südtirol
Predicted score matrix
Südtirol →
Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–18.8%
0–26.6%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.9%
1–112.4%
1–28.7%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.4%
2–17.9%
2–25.7%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.5%
3–22.5%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.5%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,31–1,45
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.62
Over 2,552%
@2.38EV+16%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Südtirol or draw (X2)66%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Südtirol40% probability@4.05PinnacleEV+63%reference odds
- 2 · Südtirol40% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+57%reference odds
- 2 · Südtirol40% probability@3.90BetssonEV+57%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Benevento | X | 2 · Südtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.95 | 3.10 | EV+ 57% 3.90 |
| Betsson | 1.95 | 3.10 | EV+ 57% 3.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.95 | 3.10 | EV+ 57% 3.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.20 | EV+ 63% 4.05 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
1+3 %
48 %43 %
2.02 → 2.09
X0 %
33 %28 %
3.20 → 3.20
2+1 %
27 %22 %
4.03 → 4.05
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Südtirol
Benevento (1–2)
Südtirol (1–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Benevento
Südtirol
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Benevento
Südtirol
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Benevento | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.92 | 0.57 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 0.86 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | Benevento | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.18 |
| xT per match | 0.8 | 0.46 |
| xTA per match | 0.77 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 11 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.2 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 3 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 391 | 318 |
| Passes against per match | 366 | 331 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.9 | 18.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Benevento | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 8.2 | 0.96 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.1 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.4 |
| Other | Benevento | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Gianmarco Vannucchi (Benevento) | Alessandro Plizzari (Südtirol) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 3 |
| Save % | 50% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 16% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Benevento vs Südtirol according to our model?
The model gives Südtirol a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benevento 32%, draw 28%, Südtirol 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.