01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Benevento or draw (1X)58%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Serie BStadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento25°20 km/h
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BeneventoBalanced & physicalvs
Hellas VeronaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Benevento (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.10 (+22 %)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Benevento – Hellas Verona · Serie B
1 · Benevento 35%X 31%34% Hellas Verona · 2
35%
31%
34%
Analysis: Benevento – Hellas Verona
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Benevento may be nursing aspirations to rise in Serie B, but Hellas Verona's possession-dominant style presents a formidable challenge. With Verona having accrued four points in the standings compared to Benevento's solitary one, the visitors are clearly in better form. Yet, it's not just the points that tell the story: Verona's expected goals per match stand at a robust 2.8, significantly dwarfing the hosts' 1.0. This disparity in attacking potency could tip the scales in a tightly contested match.
Despite Verona's superior metrics, the model still leans toward Benevento, a nod to their physical and balanced play that might disrupt the visitors' rhythm. With both teams' likelihood to score pegged at 61%, a closely fought battle with goals on both sides seems imminent. The probability of a 1-1 scoreline (11%) being the most likely outcome further illustrates the potential for a closely contested encounter. However, Verona's edge in expected goals suggests they might just edge it, with a 1-2 result (9%) being on the cards.
Analyzing the defenses, Verona's expected goals against per match, a mere 0.69, highlights their solid defensive setup, which could stifle Benevento's attempts to find the net. In contrast, the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities are evident with an xGA of 1.4, possibly giving Verona the opportunities they need to exploit.
The over/under 2.5 goals market leans towards the over, with a 58% probability. For those searching for value, the over 3.5 goals option is particularly enticing. Offered at odds of 3.4 by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model rates this outcome at 36%, presenting a 21% edge. This market captures the potential for a more open game, especially if Verona's attacking prowess comes to the fore.
In essence, while Benevento's chances shouldn't be discounted, Verona's superior form and statistics suggest they could just edge this encounter. For those looking at betting angles, the value on over 3.5 goals poses an intriguing possibility.
BeneventoForm LDL
League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #17xP/match #14Points #18
Key players
- Francesco Paolo SalveminiFxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
- Marco TumminelloFxG 0.27 · xT 0.02
- Davide LamestaRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.21
Hellas VeronaForm LDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #12
Key players
- Samuele MulattieriFxG 0.59 · xT 0.04
- Dailon Rocha Livramento do RosarioRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.13
- Gabriele ZappaRBxG 0.50 · xT 0.25
Match prediction: Benevento – Hellas Verona
Predicted score matrix
Hellas Verona →
Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–17.5%
0–26.3%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.4%
1–28.9%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.7%
2
2–04.9%
2–17.8%
2–26.3%
2–33.4%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.7%
3–23.0%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,41–1,61
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@1.77
Over 2,558%
@2.10EV+15%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Benevento or draw (1X)58%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Marco Tumminello to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Marco Tumminello to score28%
- Jesús Santiago Pérez to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.558% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.40BetssonEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Benevento | X | 2 · Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Betsson | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Nordicbet | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.67 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:09
Odds movement
1-5 %
34 %29 %
3.05 → 2.90
X+3 %
34 %29 %
3.02 → 3.10
2+5 %
39 %34 %
2.54 → 2.67
Over 2,50 %
48 %43 %
2.09 → 2.10
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Benevento (2–4)
Hellas Verona (7–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Benevento
Hellas Verona
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Benevento
Hellas Verona
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Benevento | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 4 |
| xPoints | 3.3 | 6.9 |
| xG per match | 1 | 2.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.69 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.72 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Benevento | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.75 |
| xT per match | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 0.44 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 333 | 420 |
| Passes against per match | 363 | 265 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.2 | 30.9 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Benevento | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 8 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 1.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.4 |
| Other | Benevento | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Gianmarco Vannucchi (Benevento) | Nicola Leali (Hellas Verona) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 6 |
| Save % | 60% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 29% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Benevento vs Hellas Verona according to our model?
The model gives Benevento a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benevento 35%, draw 31%, Hellas Verona 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.