Padova vs Ascoli: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Serie B12 September 2026Stadio Euganeo, Padova

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PadovaBalanced & physical

AscoliPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Ascoli (36%)Soft draw

1 · Padova 33%X 31%36% Ascoli · 2

33%

31%

36%

Analysis: Padova – Ascoli

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A glance at the head-to-head record between Padova and Ascoli offers limited insights due to the small sample size. Thus, current form and expected goals become pivotal in assessing this Serie B clash. Ascoli emerges slightly ahead with a 36% win probability, nudging out Padova's 33%. Draws account for 31%, reflecting a tight contest.

Padova's balanced and physical approach contrasts with Ascoli's possession-oriented, high-pressing style. This tactical clash leaves the two teams with close expected goals: 1.13 for Padova and 1.22 for Ascoli. Despite the visitors' style advantage, Padova's defensive edge with a slightly better xGA of 1.7 compared to Ascoli's 1.8 cannot be ignored. The model suggests that goals may be a premium, peaking at a 14% likelihood for a 1-1 draw, and a respective 11% and 10% chance for 0-1 and 1-0 scorelines.

Examining the teams' points and xPoints, Ascoli holds an upper hand with 7 points versus Padova's 4, and an xPoints of 4.0 over Padova's 2.7. Ascoli also boasts an xG of 1.8 per match, substantially higher than Padova's 0.89. This indicates a more potent attack from the visitors, even if their defense remains slightly more vulnerable than the hosts'.

From a betting perspective, the value lies with Ascoli. Offered at odds of 3.2 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model's 36% win probability suggests a 16% edge. Favoring Ascoli aligns with the numbers, signaling a likely narrow victory for the visitors, though caution is warranted due to the balanced nature of this matchup. Expect a tightly contested game, with a lean under 2.5 goals, as the strategic styles of these sides may suppress a high-scoring affair.

Padova

Form WWWDL

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #12xP/match #17Points #11

Key players

Pietro FusiLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Lorenzo CarissoniRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Marco PompettiRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.01

Ascoli

Form WDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #19xT #2xP/match #10Points #4

Key players

Nicholas RizzoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Simone D'UffiziLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.29
Abdoul Razack GuiébréLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Padova – Ascoli

Predicted score matrix

Ascoli →

Padova →

0–09.9%

0–111.3%

0–27.1%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.4%

1–113.5%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.1%

2–17.4%

2–24.5%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.3%

3–12.8%

3–21.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,13–1,22

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.77EV+3%

Over 2,542%

@2.09

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ascoli or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ascoli or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Andrea Silipo to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Pietro Fusi to score27%
Samuele Damiani to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ascoli36% probability@3.48PinnacleEV+26%reference odds
2 · Ascoli36% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
2 · Ascoli36% probability@3.20BetssonEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Padova	X	2 · Ascoli
Betsafe	2.15	3.20	EV+ 16% 3.20
Betsson	2.15	3.20	EV+ 16% 3.20
Nordicbet	2.15	3.20	EV+ 16% 3.20
Pinnacle	2.21	EV+ 1% 3.30	EV+ 26% 3.48

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:32

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Padova win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 2.37 to 2.21 (−7%).

1-7 %

44 %39 %

2.37 → 2.21

X+3 %

32 %27 %

3.19 → 3.30

2+11 %

31 %26 %

3.14 → 3.48

Over 2,5-3 %

48 %43 %

2.15 → 2.09

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Padova

Ascoli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Padova (3–4)

Ascoli (4–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Padova

Ascoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Padova

Ascoli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Padova	Ascoli
Points	4	7
xPoints	2.7	4
xG per match	0.89	1.8
xGA per match	1.7	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.49
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.29

Playing style	Padova	Ascoli
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.25
Field tilt	0.41	0.7
xT per match	0.82	1.4
xTA per match	1.1	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.36
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	335	403
Passes against per match	469	225
Switches of play per match	23.1	24.6
Long balls per match	29	27

Set pieces	Padova	Ascoli
xG from free kicks	0	0.08
Corners per match	4.5	6.7
Corners against per match	4.5	6.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.74

Other	Padova	Ascoli
Throw-in control	0.78	0.72

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Sorrentino (Padova)	Samuele Vitale (Ascoli)
Saves	12	8
Save %	75%	80%
xG prevented	38%	68%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Padova

Fixtures, form & tips

Ascoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Padova vs Ascoli according to our model?

The model gives Ascoli a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Padova 33%, draw 31%, Ascoli 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.