Carrarese vs Empoli: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Serie B5 September 2026Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara25°11 km/h

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CarraresePossession control

0–1

EmpoliLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Carrarese (39%)

1 · Carrarese 39%X 30%31% Empoli · 2

39%

30%

31%

Analysis: Carrarese – Empoli

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Carrarese enters this clash with a noticeable edge in expected goals per match, averaging 1.3 compared to Empoli's 0.67. This offensive advantage is compounded by their possession control style, which could exploit Empoli’s low defense and direct play. While Carrarese's expected goals against is a concerning 1.7, Empoli’s struggles to generate significant attacking opportunities suggest the hosts may not be heavily punished.

The head-to-head record between these sides is based on just two matches since 2023, with Carrarese having won one and drawn the other. While such a small sample size should be weighed carefully, it hints at a slight psychological edge for the hosts. Moreover, the model probabilities lend further weight to this, giving Carrarese a 39% chance of victory compared to Empoli's 31%.

Despite Empoli's better actual point tally in the season so far, Carrarese has outperformed them in xPoints, clocking in at 3.2 to Empoli's 2.7. This suggests that the hosts have been slightly unlucky and are due a positive result. The most likely scorelines support a tight contest, with 1-1 and 1-0 among the most probable outcomes, though only 1-0 would favor Carrarese.

Betting markets might underestimate the potential for Carrarese to secure a win, though no specific odds are available to confirm this. The expected goals model shows a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, indicating a moderately open, tightly contested battle rather than a clear lean toward under 2.5 goals.

In summary, look for Carrarese to capitalize on their possession and attacking edge to edge out Empoli in a close affair. A 1-0 victory seems plausible, and both teams scoring is a coin flip.

Carrarese

Form LDLLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #17xT #16xP/match #6Points #15

Key players

Elhadj Moustapha CisseFxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
Jonas Jakob RouhiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
Fabio AbiusoFxG 0.49 · xT -0.02

Empoli

Form LWDWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #19xP/match #12Points #9

Key players

Edoardo SaporitiLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Stiven ShpendiFxG 0.32 · xT -0.01
Matteo EganRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.10

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Carrarese 39% · Draw 30% · Empoli 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CarrareseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,03fair 9,21-2 %

Miss

Matchresultat - EmpoliBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,26fair 18,82-40 %

Miss

Match prediction: Carrarese – Empoli

Predicted score matrix

Empoli →

Carrarese →

0–08.4%

0–18.0%

0–24.3%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.6%

1–112.7%

1–26.4%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.9%

2–19.2%

2–24.7%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.4%

3–14.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,49–1,03

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.75

Over 2,546%

@2.15

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Carrarese or draw (1X)74%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Carrarese or draw (1X)74%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Mattia Finotto to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Mattia Finotto to score25%
Matteo Lovato to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Carrarese	X	2 · Empoli
Betsafe	2.32	3.10	2.95
Betsson	2.32	3.10	2.95
Nordicbet	2.32	3.10	2.95
Pinnacle	2.48	3.13	3.17

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

10 %

41 %36 %

2.47 → 2.48

X-2 %

33 %28 %

3.18 → 3.13

2+6 %

34 %29 %

2.99 → 3.17

Over 2,5-2 %

46 %41 %

2.20 → 2.15

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Carrarese 1Draw 1Empoli 0

Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Carrarese

Empoli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Carrarese (2–3)

Empoli (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Carrarese

Empoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Carrarese

Empoli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Carrarese	Empoli
Points	1	3
xPoints	3.2	2.7
xG per match	1.3	0.67
xGA per match	1.7	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.72	0.26

Playing style	Carrarese	Empoli
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.28
Field tilt	0.23	0.17
xT per match	0.59	0.37
xTA per match	1.7	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	18
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.12
Entries into the box per match	9	5
Entries into the box against	16	14
Pass completion %	0.7	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.7
Passes per match	251	264
Passes against per match	449	476
Switches of play per match	14	16.3
Long balls per match	23	25

Set pieces	Carrarese	Empoli
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	5.5	4
Corners against per match	6.5	4
xG per corner	0.11	0.05
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.5

Other	Carrarese	Empoli
Throw-in control	0.59	0.79

The goalkeepers	Giovanni Gabriele Garofani (Carrarese)	Jacopo Seghetti (Empoli)
Saves	8	8
Save %	73%	73%
xG prevented	65%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Carrarese

Fixtures, form & tips

Empoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Carrarese vs Empoli according to our model?

The model gives Carrarese a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Carrarese 39%, draw 30%, Empoli 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.