Cesena vs Cremonese: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Serie B12 September 2026Orogel Stadium Dino Manuzzi, Cesena21°11 km/h

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CesenaLow block & direct

CremonesePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Cesena (40%)

1 · Cesena 40%X 28%32% Cremonese · 2

40%

28%

32%

Analysis: Cesena – Cremonese

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The battle between Cesena and Cremonese highlights a potential misalignment in market pricing. Cesena, with a 40% chance of winning according to the model, presents a compelling case for value. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 3.15, suggesting a significant 27% edge for the hosts.

Despite having a small head-to-head sample since 2023, each team boasts one win. However, Cesena's current form and slight edges in both points and expected points suggest they have the upper hand. The hosts have accumulated five points compared to Cremonese's three, and their xPoints of 4.6 also surpass the visitors' 3.6. Notably, their defensive structure is more robust, conceding only 0.78 expected goals per match versus Cremonese's 0.93.

Offensively, Cremonese have a marginal edge, generating 1.0 expected goals per game compared to Cesena's 0.88. This slight advantage aligns with their possession-based style, although it hasn't translated into tangible success. Both teams show a 55% probability of finding the net, leaning towards a scenario where both sides score.

While the over/under for goals is evenly poised at 50%, the prevailing conditions suggest a tighter affair. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 underscore a finely balanced match, with Cesena holding a minor edge in securing a narrow victory. The hosts' direct approach could exploit Cremonese's high press, offering opportunities to capitalize on turnovers.

In betting terms, Cesena at home at 3.15 is the standout play. The model gives them a 40% chance of winning, a figure the odds currently do not reflect. The value lies squarely on the hosts, making them a smart pick for those looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

Cesena

Form DLDWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #4xT #16xP/match #6Points #9

Key players

Cristian ShpendiFxG 0.38 · xT 0.02
Andrea CiofiRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Dimitri BisoliRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.04

Cremonese

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #4xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Simone PontissoCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Federico BonazzoliRWxG 0.60 · xT 0.04
Jari VandeputteLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.38

Match prediction: Cesena – Cremonese

Predicted score matrix

Cremonese →

Cesena →

0–07.2%

0–18.3%

0–25.5%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.3%

1–112.6%

1–27.8%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.9%

2–18.7%

2–25.5%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.2%

3–14.1%

3–22.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,41–1,27

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.83

Over 2,550%

@2.04EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cesena or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cesena or draw (1X)67%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Cristian Shpendi to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Jamie Richard Vardy to score25%
Alberto Grassi to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Cesena40% probability@3.26PinnacleEV+32%reference odds
1 · Cesena40% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
1 · Cesena40% probability@3.15BetssonEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cesena	X	2 · Cremonese
Betsafe	EV+ 27% 3.15	3.10	2.22
Betsson	EV+ 27% 3.15	3.10	2.22
Nordicbet	EV+ 27% 3.15	3.10	2.22
Pinnacle	EV+ 32% 3.26	3.26	2.30

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:15

Odds movement

1+1 %

32 %27 %

3.23 → 3.26

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.26 → 3.26

20 %

44 %39 %

2.29 → 2.30

Over 2,5-2 %

49 %44 %

2.09 → 2.04

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Cesena 1Draw 0Cremonese 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cesena

Cremonese

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cesena (4–3)

Cremonese (3–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cesena

Cremonese

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cesena

Cremonese

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cesena	Cremonese
Points	5	3
xPoints	4.6	3.6
xG per match	0.88	1
xGA per match	0.78	0.93
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.29

Playing style	Cesena	Cremonese
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.43	0.76
xT per match	0.66	1.2
xTA per match	0.81	0.4
Won balls, offensive half	16	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	16	6
Pass completion %	0.79	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.8
Passes per match	374	520
Passes against per match	394	341
Switches of play per match	34.6	31.4
Long balls per match	40	30

Set pieces	Cesena	Cremonese
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.01
Corners per match	4	5.4
Corners against per match	7.4	3
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.58	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.56

Other	Cesena	Cremonese
Throw-in control	0.84	0.74

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Siano (Cesena)	Federico Agazzi (Cremonese)
Saves	13	6
Save %	81%	60%
xG prevented	73%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cesena

Fixtures, form & tips

Cremonese

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cesena vs Cremonese according to our model?

The model gives Cesena a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cesena 40%, draw 28%, Cremonese 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.