01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Cesena or draw (1X)61%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Serie BOrogel Stadium Dino Manuzzi, Cesena26°18 km/h
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CesenaLow block & directvs
MantovaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Cesena (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.99 (+14 %)
Cesena – Mantova · Serie B
1 · Cesena 37%X 26%37% Mantova · 2
37%
26%
37%
Analysis: Cesena – Mantova
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The hosts' style is misrepresented: the facts describe Cesena as "low defence & direct" (a weak/leaky defense with a direct attacking approach), not a defensive team. The text incorrectly calls this a "defensive posture" and "defensive setup" twice, which contradicts the profile.
CORRECTED TEXT:
With both Cesena and Mantova sitting at a 37% win probability according to the model, this matchup is as tight as they come. The hosts lean towards a more direct approach, hoping to catch the visitors off-kilter, while Mantova will naturally seek to dominate possession. Given Cesena's leaky defence, the model anticipates a fairly open game — 57% for over 2.5 goals — suggesting the home side might struggle to keep Mantova's xG of 1.2 per match at bay.
Cesena boasts a head-to-head balance against Mantova with 2 wins and 2 losses, but this small sample shouldn't overshadow the current form and statistical indicators. Mantova edges Cesena in both actual points (6 vs 4) and expected points (3.4 vs 3.2), which reflects their more consistent performance. A 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable scoreline at 12%, though a slight nod goes towards a 1-2 away victory at 9%.
For those seeking value, over 3.5 goals at odds of 3.35 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet looks appealing — the model sees a 35% likelihood, offering a 17% edge. This aligns with the expectation of an open contest, given Cesena's vulnerable defence.
CesenaForm DDLDW
League ranking xG #19xGA #6xT #20xP/match #7Points #4
Key players
- Cristian ShpendiFxG 0.42 · xT 0.04
- Mihajlo IlićCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
- Riccardo PaganoCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
MantovaForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #10xGA #1xT #12xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Rares IlieFxG 0.37 · xT 0.09
- Francesco RuoccoLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.00
- Ettore GliozziFxG 0.36 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Cesena – Mantova
Predicted score matrix
Mantova →
Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–17.4%
0–25.9%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.1%
1–111.6%
1–28.6%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.3%
2
2–05.4%
2–18.2%
2–26.3%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–02.6%
3–14.0%
3–23.0%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,45–1,53
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@1.84
Over 2,557%
@1.99EV+12%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Cesena or draw (1X)61%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Cristian Shpendi to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Leonardo Mancuso to score24%
- Simone Trimboli to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.557% probability@1.99PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
- Over 3.535% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- Over 3.535% probability@3.25BetssonEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cesena | X | 2 · Mantova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.42 | 3.10 | EV+ 3% 2.80 |
| Betsson | 2.42 | 3.10 | EV+ 3% 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.42 | 3.10 | EV+ 3% 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.32 | EV+ 4% 2.84 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 05:18
Odds movement
1-1 %
40 %35 %
2.52 → 2.50
X-1 %
31 %26 %
3.36 → 3.32
2+1 %
36 %31 %
2.80 → 2.84
Over 2,50 %
50 %45 %
1.99 → 1.99
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCesena 2Draw 0Mantova 2
Goals: 7–10 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cesena
Mantova
Cesena (3–2)
Mantova (5–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cesena
Mantova
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cesena
Mantova
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cesena | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| xG per match | 0.66 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.9 | 0.58 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.02 | 0.46 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Cesena | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.22 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.33 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.55 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 10 | 34 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 4 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 21 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 275 | 329 |
| Passes against per match | 467 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.8 | 29.3 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Cesena | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Corners per match | 1 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 9.1 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.75 |
| Other | Cesena | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.51 |
| The goalkeepers | Alessandro Siano (Cesena) | Francesco Bardi (Mantova) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 2 |
| Save % | 83% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cesena vs Mantova according to our model?
The model gives Cesena a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cesena 37%, draw 26%, Mantova 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.