Cremonese vs Padova: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Serie B6 September 2026Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona28°14 km/h

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CremonesePossession & high press

3–1

PadovaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Cremonese (57%)

1 · Cremonese 57%X 24%19% Padova · 2

57%

24%

19%

Analysis: Cremonese – Padova

Erik Lindberg · 5 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Cremonese enters this Serie B fixture with a statistical edge, despite having yet to secure a point this season. A possession-focused side with a high press, they appear well-suited to exploit Calcio Padova’s more physical and balanced approach. The model gives the hosts a 57% chance of victory, highlighting Cremonese as the likely winners in this encounter.

The expected goals (xG) tilt in Cremonese's favor, 1.69 to Padova's 0.97, reinforcing their home advantage. This disparity suggests that the hosts should find opportunities to break down Padova's defense, which has been conceding an average of 1.8 xGA per match. In contrast, Cremonese's defense appears robust, allowing only 0.79 xGA per game, pointing to a possible clean sheet.

Although Cremonese has yet to secure a point in the league, the model suggests they are outperforming their xG of 0.83 per match relative to their results so far. Padova, with four points on the board, may seem the better side at first glance. However, their xG of 0.72 indicates they’ve perhaps been more fortunate than effective, and the small sample of head-to-head results cannot outweigh these numbers.

The most probable scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw (12%), followed closely by a 1-0 (11%) and 2-0 (10%) win for the home side. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits delicately balanced at 50%, hinting at a potentially tight affair. Meanwhile, both teams to score sits at 51%, suggesting a fairly even chance either side keeps a clean sheet or not.

For those inclined to punt, Cremonese to win is valued at 1.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, offering a 6% edge based on the model's assessment. This homespun bet aligns with the calculated probabilities, turning a seemingly mundane encounter into a profitable opportunity.

Cremonese

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #5xT #5xP/match #15Points #20

Key players

Jari VandeputteLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.29
Matteo BianchettiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Sebastiano LupertoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19

Padova

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #18xT #10xP/match #17Points #7

Key players

Pietro FusiLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
Christian Diego PastinaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Lorenzo CarissoniRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.03

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Cremonese 57% · Draw 24% · Padova 19%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CremoneseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,56fair 7,33-11 %

Hit

Matchresultat - PadovaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,46fair 21,90-34 %

Miss

Match prediction: Cremonese – Padova

Predicted score matrix

Padova →

Cremonese →

0–07.3%

0–16.5%

0–23.3%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.5%

1–111.8%

1–25.6%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.0%

2–19.7%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.6%

3–15.5%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.5%

4+–13.4%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,69–0,97

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.79

Over 2,550%

@2.09EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cremonese to win57%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cremonese to win57%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Jamie Richard Vardy to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Jamie Richard Vardy to score29%
Marco Perrotta to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Cremonese57% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
1 · Cremonese57% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
1 · Cremonese57% probability@1.85BetssonEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cremonese	X	2 · Padova
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 1.85	3.30	4.10
Betsson	EV+ 6% 1.85	3.30	4.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 1.85	3.30	4.10
Pinnacle	EV+ 10% 1.93	3.49	4.27

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

10 %

53 %48 %

1.92 → 1.93

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.44 → 3.49

2+4 %

25 %20 %

4.09 → 4.27

Over 2,5+1 %

49 %44 %

2.06 → 2.09

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cremonese

Padova

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cremonese (0–4)

Padova (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cremonese

Padova

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cremonese

Padova

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cremonese	Padova
Points	0	4
xPoints	1.9	1.7
xG per match	0.83	0.72
xGA per match	0.79	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.16

Playing style	Cremonese	Padova
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.85	0.38
xT per match	1.3	0.89
xTA per match	0.26	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	31	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.22
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	4	12
Pass completion %	0.85	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.83	0.67
Passes per match	528	291
Passes against per match	301	453
Switches of play per match	28.4	16.5
Long balls per match	26	28

Set pieces	Cremonese	Padova
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	6.5	4.1
Corners against per match	2	5.1
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.11	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.7

Other	Cremonese	Padova
Throw-in control	0.71	0.75

The goalkeepers	Andrea Fulignati (Cremonese)	Alessandro Sorrentino (Padova)
Saves	4	9
Save %	80%	90%
xG prevented	37%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cremonese

Fixtures, form & tips

Padova

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cremonese vs Padova according to our model?

The model gives Cremonese a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cremonese 57%, draw 24%, Padova 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.