01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Cremonese or draw (1X)62%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serie BStadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona28°0,1 mm21 km/h
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CremonesePossession & high press0–3
ModenaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Cremonese (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Modena @ 3.68 (+11 %)
Cremonese – Modena · Serie B
1 · Cremonese 44%X 26%30% Modena · 2
44%
26%
30%
Analysis: Cremonese – Modena
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Two draws in their recent head-to-head encounters since 2023 suggest a balanced rivalry between Cremonese and Modena, but the visitors have the slight advantage with better points and expected points. Modena's edge is also evident in their superior xG per match, averaging 1.7 compared to Cremonese's 1.0. However, Cremonese's defensive metrics offer some hope, with an xGA of 0.9 slightly below Modena's 0.92, showcasing their resilience at the back.
Cremonese’s playing style relies heavily on possession and a high press, which can disrupt Modena's balanced and physical approach. The visitors might find themselves under pressure, especially in the midfield, where Cremonese will look to win the ball back quickly and transition into attack. However, Modena's physicality could prove decisive in breaking up these plays and creating opportunities on the counter.
The statistical model leans towards Cremonese with a 44% win probability, but Modena shouldn't be overlooked, especially given their ability to outperform in terms of expected goals. The expected goals suggest a narrow affair, with Cremonese at 1.28 and Modena at 1.35, hinting at a tight 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome at 13%. The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 49%, making a low-scoring game seem slightly more likely.
For those looking at the betting angles, value lies with Modena at odds of 4.3 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates Modena's chance of victory at 30%, providing a significant 29% edge over the bookmakers. With value firmly on Modena's side, taking a chance on the away win could be a shrewd move.
CremoneseForm LWDWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #7xT #6xP/match #18Points #19
Key players
- Jari VandeputteLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.56
- Matteo BianchettiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Alessandro VogliaccoRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
ModenaForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #15xP/match #6Points #2
Key players
- Ettore GliozziFxG 0.73 · xT 0.02
- Alessandro SersantiFxG 0.27 · xT 0.06
- Daniel TonoliCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
Final score
0 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Cremonese 44% · Draw 26% · Modena 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ModenaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,38fair 10,55+17 %
MissMatchresultat - CremoneseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,43fair 11,69-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Cremonese – Modena
Predicted score matrix
Modena →
Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–19.4%
0–26.6%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.9%
1–112.8%
1–28.4%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.9%
2–18.0%
2–25.4%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.4%
3–22.3%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,28–1,35
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.65
Over 2,549%
@2.12EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Cremonese or draw (1X)62%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Jamie Richard Vardy to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Jamie Richard Vardy to score33%
- Fabio Gerli to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Modena30% probability@3.68PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- Over 2.549% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- Over 2.549% probability@2.12BetssonEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cremonese | X | 2 · Modena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.20 | 2.95 | EV+ 1% 3.35 |
| Betsson | 2.20 | 2.95 | EV+ 1% 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.20 | 2.95 | EV+ 1% 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.06 | EV+ 11% 3.68 |
Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:39
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Modena win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 4.48 to 3.68 (−18%).
1+21 %
58 %38 %
1.89 → 2.28
X-7 %
40 %20 %
3.29 → 3.06
2-18 %
33 %13 %
4.48 → 3.68
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCremonese 0Draw 2Modena 0
Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cremonese
Modena
Cremonese (0–1)
Modena (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cremonese
Modena
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cremonese
Modena
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cremonese | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 0.7 | 2 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.9 | 0.92 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Cremonese | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.94 | 0.34 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 0.18 | 0.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.11 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 5 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.84 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 652 | 367 |
| Passes against per match | 192 | 392 |
| Switches of play per match | 37.9 | 33 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Cremonese | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 1.9 | 8.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.1 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.21 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Other | Cremonese | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Andrea Fulignati (Cremonese) | Leandro Chichizola (Modena) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 2 |
| Save % | 80% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cremonese vs Modena according to our model?
The model gives Cremonese a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cremonese 44%, draw 26%, Modena 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.