01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Empoli or draw (1X)70%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Serie BStadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli26°9 km/h
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EmpoliPossession controlvs
CremoneseThe model's lean: 1 · Empoli (37%)Soft draw
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Empoli – Cremonese · Serie B
1 · Empoli 37%X 30%33% Cremonese · 2
37%
30%
33%
Analysis: Empoli – Cremonese
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Thirty-seven percent: that's the model's likelihood of an Empoli victory this Saturday against Cremonese in Serie B. While it might seem like a marginal edge, it becomes more intriguing when you consider that the bookies — Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — offer odds of 2.75 on an Empoli win. This indicates a tiny value opportunity for those keen on the home side, even if it's by just a sliver.
Empoli's expected goals of 1.34 slightly edge out Cremonese's 1.08, suggesting that quality and creativity are more likely to flourish in the home camp. However, with a most probable scoreline of 1-1 at 13% and the model weighing in with a 30% chance of a draw, it's clear the gaps are narrow. Indeed, the model subtly nods towards a 1-0 Empoli win at 12%, buoyed by the 44% likelihood of seeing under 2.5 goals in this clash. Slippery conditions, courtesy of 6.5 mm of rain, could dampen the attacking zest from both sides, already contemplating a cagey affair.
Cremonese, though only slightly trailing Empoli in the probability stakes, have not been written off. The 33% chance of an away triumph keeps them well within touching distance, albeit lacking the betting edge their opponents hold. With both teams to score hovering at 49%, these sides are poised on a knife-edge, where each defensive lapse could prove decisive.
Empoli might just have the wind, or in this case, the rain, at their backs. The value lies in backing them at odds of 2.75, a proposition that, while not a sure-fire lock, carries a slight yet tangible edge. Betting on a low-scoring 1-0 victory for the home side, enhanced by both weather and model insights, emerges as the most astute angle.
EmpoliForm LDLWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #11xP/match #11Points #17
Key players
- Stiven ShpendiFxG 0.42 · xT 0.07
- Brando MoruzziLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.22
- Gabriele GuarinoCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.09
CremoneseForm WLWDW
Key players
- Manuel De LucaFxG 0.47 · xT -0.01
- Michele CollocoloRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.09
- Marco NastiFxG 0.54 · xT 0.00
Match prediction: Empoli – Cremonese
Predicted score matrix
Cremonese →
Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–19.2%
0–25.2%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.5%
1–113.2%
1–26.9%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.0%
2–18.6%
2–24.7%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.6%
3–13.9%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.7%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-09%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,34–1,08
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.72
Over 2,544%
@2.00
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Empoli or draw (1X)70%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Stiven Shpendi to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Federico Bonazzoli to score21%
- Alberto Grassi to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Empoli37% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- 1 · Empoli37% probability@2.75BetssonEV+1%reference odds
- 1 · Empoli37% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Empoli | X | 2 · Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Betsson | EV+ 1% 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Empoli
Cremonese
Empoli (47–54)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Empoli
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Empoli
| The goalkeepers | Andrea Fulignati (Empoli) | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 108 | – |
| Save % | 67% | – |
| xG prevented | 39% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Empoli vs Cremonese according to our model?
The model gives Empoli a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Empoli 37%, draw 30%, Cremonese 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.