Empoli vs Arezzo: Prediction & Odds (11 Sept 2026)

Serie B11 September 2026Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli22°15 km/h

EmpoliLow block & direct

ArezzoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Empoli (40%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Arezzo @ 3.87 (+50 %)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Empoli 40%X 21%39% Arezzo · 2

40%

21%

39%

Analysis: Empoli – Arezzo

Marcus Johansson · 10 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

With just a handful of encounters between Empoli and Arezzo, the head-to-head record is an unreliable indicator for this clash. Instead, it's the clash of styles and current form that might dictate proceedings. Empoli, with their low defensive line and penchant for direct play, have managed a slim lead in points and expected points over their visitors. Arezzo, favoring possession control, offer a contrasting approach that could either unlock Empoli's backline or play into the hosts' hands.

The model's probabilities suggest a razor-thin margin between Empoli's 40% chance of winning and Arezzo's 39%, leaning slightly towards the home side. This is reflected in the most likely scorelines, with a 1-1 draw leading the way at 10%, followed closely by a 2-1 victory for Empoli at 9%. The expected goals further underscore Empoli's edge, predicting 1.86 goals to Arezzo's 1.39. Yet, Arezzo's superior xG per match over Empoli's reveals their potential to surprise.

While Empoli's defensive numbers are solid, conceding just 0.92 xGA per match, Arezzo's 2.1 xGA indicates vulnerabilities that the hosts might exploit. Despite the defensive disparities, both sides have shown an inclination to find the net, with a 64% chance both teams will score. The over 2.5 goals statistic at 63% also suggests a lively affair, particularly given Empoli's direct style that can create unpredictable, high-scoring scenarios.

For those looking at betting value, the sharpest angle lies in the over 3.5 goals market. At odds of 3.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a notable 53% edge according to the model's estimation of a 41% chance. While this high goal line is ambitious, the combination of Empoli's direct attack, Arezzo's possession game, and both defenses' tendencies could just be the recipe for more goals than expected.

Empoli

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #18xGA #7xT #19xP/match #9Points #8

Key players

Edoardo SaporitiFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Stiven ShpendiFxG 0.25 · xT -0.03
Gerard YepesCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.00

Arezzo

Form WLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #20xT #10xP/match #16Points #15

Key players

Pietro CianciFxG 0.55 · xT 0.05
Alessandro ArenaRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Artur IoniţăLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Empoli – Arezzo

Predicted score matrix

Arezzo →

Empoli →

0–04.2%

0–15.1%

0–23.8%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.8%

1–06.9%

1–110.3%

1–27.0%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.7%

2–19.3%

2–26.5%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.4%

3–04.2%

3–15.8%

3–24.0%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.9%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,86–1,39

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@1.71

Over 2,563%

@2.18EV+31%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Empoli or draw (1X)72%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Empoli or draw (1X)72%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Stiven Shpendi to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Stiven Shpendi to score29%
Gennaro Iaccarino to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Arezzo39% probability@3.87PinnacleEV+50%reference odds
2 · Arezzo39% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+46%reference odds
2 · Arezzo39% probability@3.75BetssonEV+46%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Empoli	X	2 · Arezzo
Betsafe	2.02	3.05	EV+ 46% 3.75
Betsson	2.02	3.05	EV+ 46% 3.75
Nordicbet	2.02	3.05	EV+ 46% 3.75
Pinnacle	2.10	3.23	EV+ 50% 3.87

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:36

Odds movement

1+6 %

49 %44 %

1.98 → 2.10

X-3 %

32 %27 %

3.32 → 3.23

2-4 %

27 %22 %

4.02 → 3.87

Over 2,5-1 %

46 %41 %

2.21 → 2.18

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Empoli

Arezzo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Empoli (3–3)

Arezzo (4–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Empoli

Arezzo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Empoli

Arezzo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Empoli	Arezzo
Points	6	3
xPoints	4.2	3.2
xG per match	0.76	1
xGA per match	0.92	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.55

Playing style	Empoli	Arezzo
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.31	0.32
xT per match	0.44	0.87
xTA per match	0.87	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	22	16
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.14
Entries into the box per match	7	9
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.66
Passes per match	357	260
Passes against per match	437	464
Switches of play per match	26.9	34.5
Long balls per match	33	45

Set pieces	Empoli	Arezzo
xG from free kicks	0	0.02
Corners per match	5	3.6
Corners against per match	3	4.6
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.71

Other	Empoli	Arezzo
Throw-in control	0.78	0.69

The goalkeepers	Jacopo Seghetti (Empoli)	Alessandro Nunziante (Arezzo)
Saves	13	10
Save %	81%	53%
xG prevented	78%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Empoli vs Arezzo according to our model?

The model gives Empoli a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Empoli 40%, draw 21%, Arezzo 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.