Serie BStadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza21°6 km/h

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    VicenzaVicenzaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Juve StabiaJuve StabiaCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Juve Stabia (37%)Soft draw
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    Vicenza – Juve Stabia · Serie B

    1 · Vicenza 34%X 28%37% Juve Stabia · 2

    Analysis: Vicenza – Juve Stabia

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A razor-thin margin separates these two sides in what promises to be a tightly contested Serie B clash. With the model giving Juve Stabia a slight win probability edge at 37% over Vicenza’s 34%, the visitors carry the favored tag, albeit by the slimmest of margins. Yet, the most probable scoreline tells a different story with a 1-1 draw leading the prediction at 12%, supported by the expected goals tally (Vicenza 1.37, Juve Stabia 1.38).

    Vicenza holds a slight advantage in underlying numbers, boasting 1.6 xG per match compared to Juve Stabia’s 1.0, and a better defensive posture with 1.2 xGA against 1.5. This suggests the hosts have more scoring potential and defensive solidity. However, both teams employ a counter-attacking style with a focus on crosses, making their battle likely to hinge on who can exploit these opportunities more effectively.

    For those seeking value, the away win at odds of 3.9 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers a tempting proposition, given the model’s assessment of Juve Stabia's 37% win probability. With a 45% edge on the odds, it stands as the sharpest angle for punters looking to back the visitors in this encounter.

    VicenzaVicenza
    Form WLD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #6xP/match #7Points #10
    Key players
    • Silvio MerkajFxG 0.52 · xT 0.18
    • Gabriele MonciniFxG 0.47 · xT 0.06
    • Filippo AlessioLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
    Juve StabiaJuve Stabia
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #13xP/match #20Points #14
    Key players
    • Marco BellichCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
    • Davide BettellaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
    • Leonardo CandelloneFxG 0.24 · xT 0.00

    Match prediction: Vicenza – Juve Stabia

    Predicted score matrix

    Juve Stabia →
    Vicenza →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–18.5%
    0–26.1%
    0–32.8%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–08.4%
    1–112.4%
    1–28.4%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–18.3%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.6%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-18%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,37–1,38
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,548%
    @1.67
    Over 2,552%
    @2.26EV+11%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Juve Stabia or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.07

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Juve Stabia or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Fabio Maistro to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Fabio Maistro to score22%
    • Marco Carraro to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Juve Stabia37% probability@3.93PinnacleEV+46%reference odds
    • 2 · Juve Stabia37% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+45%reference odds
    • 2 · Juve Stabia37% probability@3.90BetssonEV+45%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VicenzaX2 · Juve Stabia
    Betsafe1.983.05
    EV+ 45%
    3.90
    Betsson1.983.05
    EV+ 45%
    3.90
    Nordicbet1.983.05
    EV+ 45%
    3.90
    Pinnacle2.133.11
    EV+ 46%
    3.93

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:30

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    49 %44 %

    2.04 → 2.13

    X0 %
    33 %28 %

    3.12 → 3.11

    2-6 %
    26 %21 %

    4.17 → 3.93

    Over 2,5-4 %
    44 %39 %

    2.36 → 2.26

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vicenza
    Juve Stabia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vicenza (5–7)
    Juve Stabia (2–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vicenza
    Giuseppe Cuomo: 123 passningar, xT 0.32CuomoRiccardo Marchizza: 95 passningar, xT 0.11MarchizzaMarco Carraro: 89 passningar, xT 0.02CarraroLorenzo Caferri: 75 passningar, xT 0.62CaferriRiccardo Gagno: 71 passningar, xT 0.12GagnoLoris Zonta: 68 passningar, xT -0.04ZontaFilippo Costa: 65 passningar, xT 0.44CostaMaxime Jean Roberto Leverbe: 65 passningar, xT 0.38LeverbeMattia Valoti: 47 passningar, xT 0.15ValotiGiulio Pellizzari: 43 passningar, xT 0PellizzariThomas Sandon: 41 passningar, xT 0.11Sandon
    Juve Stabia
    Davide Bettella: 250 passningar, xT 0.33BettellaMarco Bellich: 222 passningar, xT 0.09BellichManuel Ricciardi: 160 passningar, xT 0.08RicciardiGiulio Scuderi: 108 passningar, xT 0.23ScuderiDavide Buglio: 96 passningar, xT -0.01BuglioPietro Boer: 82 passningar, xT -0.03BoerChristian Pierobon: 64 passningar, xT 0.03PierobonNermin Karić: 53 passningar, xT 0.15KarićFederico Artioli: 50 passningar, xT 0.15ArtioliNicola Patanè: 47 passningar, xT 0.47PatanèLeonardo Candellone: 21 passningar, xT 0Candellone
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vicenza
    Giuseppe Cuomo: 123 passningar, xT 0.32CuomoRiccardo Marchizza: 95 passningar, xT 0.11MarchizzaMarco Carraro: 89 passningar, xT 0.02CarraroLorenzo Caferri: 75 passningar, xT 0.62CaferriRiccardo Gagno: 71 passningar, xT 0.12GagnoLoris Zonta: 68 passningar, xT -0.04ZontaFilippo Costa: 65 passningar, xT 0.44CostaMaxime Jean Roberto Leverbe: 65 passningar, xT 0.38LeverbeMattia Valoti: 47 passningar, xT 0.15ValotiGiulio Pellizzari: 43 passningar, xT 0PellizzariThomas Sandon: 41 passningar, xT 0.11Sandon
    Juve Stabia
    Davide Bettella: 250 passningar, xT 0.33BettellaMarco Bellich: 222 passningar, xT 0.09BellichManuel Ricciardi: 160 passningar, xT 0.08RicciardiGiulio Scuderi: 108 passningar, xT 0.23ScuderiDavide Buglio: 96 passningar, xT -0.01BuglioPietro Boer: 82 passningar, xT -0.03BoerChristian Pierobon: 64 passningar, xT 0.03PierobonNermin Karić: 53 passningar, xT 0.15KarićFederico Artioli: 50 passningar, xT 0.15ArtioliNicola Patanè: 47 passningar, xT 0.47PatanèLeonardo Candellone: 21 passningar, xT 0Candellone

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVicenzaJuve Stabia
    Points43
    xPoints4.52.2
    xG per match1.61
    xGA per match1.21.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.460.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.38
    Playing styleVicenzaJuve Stabia
    Build-up efficiency0.310.28
    Field tilt0.480.45
    xT per match1.10.81
    xTA per match0.890.6
    Won balls, offensive half2726
    Pressing intensity0.240.28
    Pressing efficiency0.240.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.27
    Entries into the box per match1112
    Entries into the box against1112
    Pass completion %0.770.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.75
    Passes per match332407
    Passes against per match323292
    Switches of play per match31.525.3
    Long balls per match3925
    Set piecesVicenzaJuve Stabia
    xG from free kicks0.040.01
    Corners per match75.5
    Corners against per match43.6
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.070.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.59
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.64
    OtherVicenzaJuve Stabia
    Throw-in control0.710.71
    The goalkeepersRiccardo Gagno (Vicenza)Pietro Boer (Juve Stabia)
    Saves1213
    Save %63%72%
    xG prevented36%75%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Vicenza
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Juve Stabia
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vicenza vs Juve Stabia according to our model?

    The model gives Juve Stabia a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vicenza 34%, draw 28%, Juve Stabia 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.