Mantova vs Empoli: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Serie B30 August 2026Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova26°9 km/h

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MantovaPossession control

3–1

EmpoliLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Mantova (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Empoli @ 4.29 (+30 %)

1 · Mantova 43%X 27%30% Empoli · 2

43%

27%

30%

Analysis: Mantova – Empoli

Oscar Nilsson · 29 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

In their limited head-to-head encounters, Empoli holds a slight advantage over Mantova with one draw and one win since 2023. However, the small sample size diminishes its significance when set against current form and expected goals. It's a contrast of styles: the hosts thrive on possession, while Empoli leans on a low defensive line and direct play. The previous results don't tell us much about how this matchup will unfold now.

Current form and analytics suggest a match leaning towards Mantova. Despite Empoli’s slight edge in xPoints (2.1 to 1.2), Mantova's xG stats point to a more robust attacking potential, with 1.1 xG per match compared to Empoli's 0.89. Defensively, the hosts also stand firm, allowing just 0.73 xGA per match versus Empoli's 1.0. Mantova's ability to generate 0.57 xG within eight seconds of winning the ball underscores their efficiency in counter-attacks, indicating an opportunity to exploit Empoli's vulnerabilities.

The model probabilities paint a picture of Mantova as marginal favorites, given a 43% chance of winning compared to Empoli's 30%. Most probable scorelines are tight, with 1-1 at 12% and a 1-0 win for Mantova close behind at 10%. The over/under 2.5 goals line sits at a delicate 51%, suggesting a game that might just teeter over the edge towards goals, but not by much. Both teams finding the net is a more likely scenario at 55%.

Yet, despite the home side's statistical advantages, value hunters have a reason to glance towards Empoli. Odds of 3.45 across multiple bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 5% edge based on the model's 30% win probability for the visitors. Such odds don't come often, making Empoli the sharper angle for those seeking value amid the data-driven landscape of this Serie B clash.

Mantova

Form LWWLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #9xP/match #11Points #3

Key players

Ettore GliozziFxG 0.34 · xT 0.04
Lorenzo IgnacchitiCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Simone TrimboliCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Empoli

Form DLWDW

League ranking xG #13xGA #10xT #20xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Matteo EganRWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.09
Marco CurtoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Cristian CauzCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Mantova 43% · Draw 27% · Empoli 30%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - EmpoliBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,18fair 13,54+5 %

Miss

Matchresultat - MantovaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,33fair 8,43-13 %

Hit

Match prediction: Mantova – Empoli

Predicted score matrix

Empoli →

Mantova →

0–07.0%

0–17.6%

0–24.7%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.7%

1–112.4%

1–27.2%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.7%

2–19.1%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.9%

3–14.6%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,52–1,19

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.73

Over 2,551%

@2.17EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Leonardo Mancuso to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Leonardo Mancuso to score27%
Marco Curto to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Empoli30% probability@4.29PinnacleEV+30%reference odds
2 · Empoli30% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
2 · Empoli30% probability@3.90BetssonEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mantova	X	2 · Empoli
Betsafe	1.95	3.10	EV+ 18% 3.90
Betsson	1.95	3.10	EV+ 18% 3.90
Nordicbet	1.95	3.10	EV+ 18% 3.90
Pinnacle	2.02	3.23	EV+ 30% 4.29

Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

49 %44 %

2.05 → 2.02

X-4 %

32 %27 %

3.38 → 3.23

2+16 %

27 %22 %

3.70 → 4.29

Over 2,5+3 %

47 %42 %

2.11 → 2.17

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Mantova 0Draw 1Empoli 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mantova

Empoli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mantova (2–1)

Empoli (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mantova

Empoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mantova

Empoli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mantova	Empoli
Points	3	3
xPoints	1.2	2.1
xG per match	1.1	0.89
xGA per match	0.73	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.57	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.18

Playing style	Mantova	Empoli
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.28
Field tilt	0.66	0.06
xT per match	0.99	0.18
xTA per match	0.55	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	39	17
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.16
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.02
Entries into the box per match	13	5
Entries into the box against	7	17
Pass completion %	0.75	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.67
Passes per match	361	192
Passes against per match	330	650
Switches of play per match	24.5	12.6
Long balls per match	32	23

Set pieces	Mantova	Empoli
xG from free kicks	0.14	0
Corners per match	2.9	1.9
Corners against per match	2	4.8
xG per corner	0	0.21
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.4

Other	Mantova	Empoli
Throw-in control	0.44	0.67

The goalkeepers	Francesco Bardi (Mantova)	Jacopo Seghetti (Empoli)
Saves	1	2
Save %	50%	100%
xG prevented	25%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mantova

Fixtures, form & tips

Empoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mantova vs Empoli according to our model?

The model gives Mantova a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mantova 43%, draw 27%, Empoli 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.