Mantova vs Sampdoria: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Serie B13 September 2026Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova20°7 km/h

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MantovaPossession control

SampdoriaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Mantova (42%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 11.00 (+76 %)

1 · Mantova 42%X 27%31% Sampdoria · 2

42%

27%

31%

Analysis: Mantova – Sampdoria

Sofia Andersson · 5 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Mantova's 42% win probability against Sampdoria suggests a clear tilt towards the hosts. Despite a narrow expected goals margin (1.46 vs 1.38), the home side’s head-to-head record—two wins, a draw, and a loss from four matchups—reinforces their edge. Although the sample is small, Mantova has capitalized on its possession-based style, leveraging a more resilient defense with an xGA of 0.58 compared to Sampdoria's 0.96. The hosts have also shown a knack for tight games, reflected in their marginal edge in points and expected points.

The goal model points to a slight inclination towards over 2.5 goals at 54%, but the rainy forecast of 6.9 mm could dampen the scoring potential, already factored into this percentage. Both teams are likely to find the net, with a 58% chance indicating defensive vulnerabilities on both ends. Sampdoria's high pressing might unsettle Mantova, yet the visitors have struggled to convert possession into points, highlighted by their meager tally of one point.

There's potential lean towards Mantova given their favorable home statistics and Sampdoria’s underwhelming form. A 1-1 scoreline looms over others, aligning with the model's projections as the most likely outcome.

Mantova

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #1xT #12xP/match #5Points #2

Key players

Rares IlieFxG 0.37 · xT 0.09
Francesco RuoccoLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.00
Ettore GliozziFxG 0.36 · xT 0.02

Sampdoria

Form DWLDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #15xP/match #9Points #16

Key players

Tjas BegicLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.26
Antoine MakoumbouCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
Mattia VitiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Mantova – Sampdoria

Predicted score matrix

Sampdoria →

Mantova →

0–06.2%

0–17.7%

0–25.6%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.2%

1–112.1%

1–28.1%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.2%

2–18.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.0%

3–14.2%

3–22.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,46–1,38

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@1.69

Over 2,554%

@2.40EV+30%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Leonardo Mancuso to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Leonardo Mancuso to score30%
Simone Trimboli to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.516% probability@11.00Bet365EV+76%reference odds
Over 3.532% probability@4.50Bet365EV+43%reference odds
Over 2.554% probability@2.40Bet365EV+30%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mantova	X	2 · Sampdoria
Bet365	2.25	2.90	EV+ 4% 3.40
Betsafe	2.12	3.00	EV+ 8% 3.50
Betsson	2.12	3.00	EV+ 8% 3.50
Nordicbet	2.12	3.00	EV+ 8% 3.50
Pinnacle	2.14	3.29	EV+ 8% 3.53

Odds updated 8 Sept, 05:16

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Mantova 2Draw 1Sampdoria 1

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mantova

Sampdoria

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mantova (5–2)

Sampdoria (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mantova

Sampdoria

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mantova

Sampdoria

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mantova	Sampdoria
Points	6	1
xPoints	3.4	3.1
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	0.58	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.19

Playing style	Mantova	Sampdoria
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.6	0.74
xT per match	0.84	0.79
xTA per match	0.55	0.58
Won balls, offensive half	34	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	21
Entries into the box against	6	9
Pass completion %	0.74	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.68
Passes per match	329	392
Passes against per match	334	329
Switches of play per match	29.3	30.5
Long balls per match	34	32

Set pieces	Mantova	Sampdoria
xG from free kicks	0.27	0.08
Corners per match	3	6.9
Corners against per match	4	3.4
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.57

Other	Mantova	Sampdoria
Throw-in control	0.51	0.71

The goalkeepers	Francesco Bardi (Mantova)	Peter Vindahl Jensen (Sampdoria)
Saves	2	5
Save %	50%	63%
xG prevented	38%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mantova vs Sampdoria according to our model?

The model gives Mantova a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mantova 42%, draw 27%, Sampdoria 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.