01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Palermo to win69%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Serie BStadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo25°0,6 mm13 km/h
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PalermoCounter-attacks & crossesvs
PadovaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Palermo (69%)
Palermo – Padova · Serie B
1 · Palermo 69%X 18%12% Padova · 2
69%
18%
12%
Analysis: Palermo – Padova
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Palermo's daunting 69% win probability underscores their strength against Padova, enhanced by a four-match winning streak. This, coupled with their potent offensive numbers — 2.23 expected goals versus the visitors' scant 0.83 — paints a picture of dominance. Despite the limited head-to-head sample of two games, both victories for the hosts align with the current trends favoring Palermo.
The Sicilian side's home fortress sees them winning 61% of their games, a testament to their control and effective counter-attacking style. While Padova brings a physical, balanced approach, they struggle with a mere 0.89 xG per match and a worrying 1.7 xGA. The visitors are unlikely to disrupt Palermo's defensive resilience, which allows just 1.1 xGA.
The most likely scoreline of 2-0 would fall under the 2.5 goals mark, even as the model still leans toward over 2.5 goals at 59%. However, given the expected defensive discipline from both sides, a 2-1 result isn't out of the question. This setup suggests pursuing the straightforward home win, balancing risk with a solid return.
PalermoForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #14xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Tommaso AugelloLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.26
- Dennis JohnsenLWxG 0.49 · xT 0.01
- Filippo RanocchiaCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
PadovaForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #12xP/match #17Points #11
Key players
- Pietro FusiLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
- Lorenzo CarissoniRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Marco PompettiRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Palermo – Padova
Predicted score matrix
Padova →
Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–13.6%
0–21.6%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–010.2%
1–18.9%
1–23.6%
1–31.0%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–011.7%
2–19.7%
2–24.0%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–08.7%
3–17.2%
3–23.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–08.2%
4+–16.8%
4+–22.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.3-09%
Expected goals
2,23–0,83
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
–
Over 2,559%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Palermo to win69%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score41%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score41%
- Lorenzo Crisetig to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesPalermo 2Draw 0Padova 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Key facts
- Palermo come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Palermo win 61% of their home matches all-time (41 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Palermo
Padova
Palermo (7–3)
Padova (3–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Palermo
Padova
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Palermo
Padova
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Palermo | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 4 |
| xPoints | 5.8 | 2.7 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 0.89 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Palermo | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 343 | 335 |
| Passes against per match | 355 | 469 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.1 | 23.1 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Palermo | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| Other | Palermo | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Mattia Perin (Palermo) | Alessandro Sorrentino (Padova) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 12 |
| Save % | 70% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Palermo vs Padova according to our model?
The model gives Palermo a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Palermo 69%, draw 18%, Padova 12%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.