01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Palermo to win52%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serie BStadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo27°11 km/h
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PalermoCounter-attacks & crossesvs
SampdoriaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Palermo (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sampdoria @ 5.48 (+18 %)
Palermo – Sampdoria · Serie B
1 · Palermo 52%X 26%21% Sampdoria · 2
52%
26%
21%
Analysis: Palermo – Sampdoria
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT holds mostly, but contains factual errors:
1. "60% win rate at home since their return to Serie B" is an unsupported addition — the facts only state "all-time (40 played)," not tied to Serie B return. 2. "under 2.5 goals at a near-even 49%" is incorrect — the facts state Over 2.5 goals is 49%, not under. 3. "Palermo's defensive solidity, conceding an xGA of just 1.1 per match" misrepresents the data — the facts show xGA edge favors Sampdoria (0.96 vs Palermo's 1.1), meaning Sampdoria's defense is comparatively better, not Palermo's.
Corrected text:
Palermo hold a slight edge in the recent head-to-heads against Sampdoria, remaining unbeaten with one win and three draws in their last four encounters. But with such a small sample size, these games weigh less than current form and expected goals. The numbers sketch a scene that heavily favors the hosts, particularly given their remarkable 60% win rate at home all-time.
With three consecutive victories, Palermo's form is undeniable. Their counter-attacking style, bolstered by effective crossing, perfectly complements their recent momentum. Their expected goals (xG) of 1.59 against the visitors' 1.03 further underscore their attacking edge. Despite Sampdoria's reliance on possession and a high press, they have struggled to convert this approach into points, as reflected in their lowly single point accumulated so far this season.
The most likely scorelines, according to the model, are a 1-1 draw at 12%, and a 1-0 win for Palermo at 11%. While both teams to score hovers at 51%, the lean is slightly towards an open affair with over 2.5 goals at a near-even 49%. Palermo's attacking edge, backed by an xG of 1.59 per match, might prove decisive against Sampdoria's slightly better xGA of 0.96.
With the odds tilted towards Palermo at a 52% probability to claim victory, there is potential value here. A bet on a 1-0 scoreline could be shrewd, given Palermo's recent form and home strength. Keep an eye on bookmakers offering odds on a narrow Palermo win, particularly if they align with the slight model edge for a home victory. This is where the numbers suggest the sharpest angle lies.
PalermoForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #13xP/match #3Points #5
Key players
- Dennis JohnsenLWxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
- Filippo RanocchiaCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.17
- Tommaso AugelloLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.26
SampdoriaForm DWLDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #14xP/match #7Points #15
Key players
- Tjas BegicLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.26
- Antoine MakoumbouCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
- Mattia VitiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Palermo – Sampdoria
Predicted score matrix
Sampdoria →
Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–17.2%
0–23.9%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–011.3%
1–112.3%
1–26.1%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.2%
2–19.5%
2–24.9%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.9%
3–15.0%
3–22.6%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,59–1,03
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,551%
@1.97EV+1%
Over 2,549%
@1.90
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Palermo to win52%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score45%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score45%
- Dennis Hadžikadunić to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sampdoria21% probability@5.48PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
- 2 · Sampdoria21% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Sampdoria21% probability@5.10BetssonEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Palermo | X | 2 · Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.65 | 3.45 | EV+ 10% 5.10 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 3.45 | EV+ 10% 5.10 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | 3.45 | EV+ 10% 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | EV+ 2% 3.86 | EV+ 18% 5.48 |
Odds updated 7 Sept, 10:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Palermo win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.97 to 1.67 (−15%).
1-15 %
58 %48 %
1.97 → 1.67
X+18 %
32 %22 %
3.28 → 3.86
2+34 %
25 %15 %
4.10 → 5.48
Over 2,5-9 %
53 %43 %
2.09 → 1.90
Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPalermo 1Draw 3Sampdoria 0
Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Key facts
- Palermo come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Palermo win 60% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Palermo
Sampdoria
Palermo (4–2)
Sampdoria (2–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Palermo
Sampdoria
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Palermo
Sampdoria
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Palermo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 1 |
| xPoints | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.96 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Palermo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| xT per match | 0.83 | 0.8 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.58 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 21 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 346 | 393 |
| Passes against per match | 333 | 329 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.7 | 30.5 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Palermo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 6.9 |
| Corners against per match | 7.4 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| Other | Palermo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Mattia Fortin (Palermo) | Peter Vindahl Jensen (Sampdoria) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Save % | 100% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Palermo vs Sampdoria according to our model?
The model gives Palermo a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Palermo 52%, draw 26%, Sampdoria 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.