Serie BStadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo33°12 km/h

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    PalermoPalermoCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Juve StabiaJuve StabiaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Palermo (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Juve Stabia @ 5.10 (+13 %)

    Palermo – Juve Stabia · Serie B

    1 · Palermo 52%X 26%22% Juve Stabia · 2

    Analysis: Palermo – Juve Stabia

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    52% is the model's probability of Palermo securing a win against SS Juve Stabia, and this tilt in their favor is backed by the numbers. The expected goals (xG) tally leans towards Palermo as well, with a reading of 1.57 compared to Juve Stabia's 1.06. And while the model identifies a 49% probability for over 2.5 goals, this is finely balanced, suggesting we might see a closely contested affair rather than a goal-fest.

    Palermo, boasting a home win rate of 59% in the 39 matches played at their ground, capitalize on their counter-attacking prowess. Their ability to exploit spaces left by Juve Stabia's possession-heavy style could prove decisive. The pattern over their last five head-to-head encounters since 2023 is split evenly, with both sides winning twice, but this small sample weighs less than Palermo's demonstrable edge in current form.

    Numbers point to a likely 1-1 or 1-0 outcome, with both teams to score sitting at 52%. Given the expected goals and the tactical styles, the under 2.5 goals bet has a compelling case. The model not only favors a low-scoring encounter but also suggests that any goal could tip the balance, making Palermo’s defensive discipline crucial.

    SS Juve Stabia’s position as underdogs is reflected in the generous odds of 5.1 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet for an away win. The model sees a 22% chance of an upset, revealing a 13% value edge. If you're looking for risk with potential reward, this is where the sharpest angle lies. Despite Palermo's home advantage, bettors might find value in betting against the favorite, gambling on Juve Stabia to pull off a surprise victory.

    PalermoPalermo
    Form DWLLW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #5xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Joel PohjanpaloFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
    • Tommaso AugelloLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
    • Filippo RanocchiaCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
    Juve StabiaJuve Stabia
    Form LDWDL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #20xP/match #9Points #7
    Key players
    • Leonardo CandelloneFxG 0.38 · xT 0.05
    • Rareş Cătălin BurneteFxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
    • Marco BellichCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Palermo – Juve Stabia

    Predicted score matrix

    Juve Stabia →
    Palermo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.6%
    0–17.3%
    0–24.0%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–112.3%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.9%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–14.9%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,57–1,06
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.72
    Over 2,549%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Palermo to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.95

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Palermo to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Joel Julius Ilmari Pohjanpalo to score24%
    • Filippo Ranocchia to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Juve Stabia22% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
    • 2 · Juve Stabia22% probability@5.10BetssonEV+13%reference odds
    • 2 · Juve Stabia22% probability@5.10NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PalermoX2 · Juve Stabia
    Betsafe1.623.45
    EV+ 13%
    5.10
    Betsson1.623.45
    EV+ 13%
    5.10
    Nordicbet1.623.45
    EV+ 13%
    5.10

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Palermo 2Draw 1Juve Stabia 2
    Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Palermo win 59% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Palermo
    Juve Stabia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Palermo (63–36)
    Juve Stabia (48–49)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Palermo
    Filippo Ranocchia: 218 passningar, xT 1.18RanocchiaPietro Ceccaroni: 171 passningar, xT 0.28CeccaroniTommaso Augello: 160 passningar, xT 0.37AugelloAntonio Palumbo: 136 passningar, xT 0.71PalumboJesse Pekka Joronen: 124 passningar, xT 0.14JoronenPatryk Peda: 107 passningar, xT 0.22PedaNiccolo Pierozzi: 100 passningar, xT 0.25PierozziGiangiacomo Magnani: 79 passningar, xT 0.16MagnaniJacopo Segre: 66 passningar, xT -0.06SegreRui Manuel Muati Modesto: 64 passningar, xT 0.37ModestoAlexis Blin: 49 passningar, xT 0.05Blin
    Juve Stabia
    Andrea Giorgini: 334 passningar, xT 0.22GiorginiMarco Bellich: 262 passningar, xT 0.35BellichGiuseppe Leone: 179 passningar, xT -0.01LeoneChristian Dalle Mura: 173 passningar, xT 0.17MuraSalim Diakite: 154 passningar, xT 0.07DiakiteNicola Mosti: 127 passningar, xT 0.3MostiOmar Correia: 120 passningar, xT 0.01CorreiaAlessandro Confente: 91 passningar, xT 0.21ConfenteLorenzo Carissoni: 78 passningar, xT 0.11CarissoniChristian Pierobon: 72 passningar, xT -0.05PierobonAlessio Cacciamani: 70 passningar, xT 0.38Cacciamani
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Palermo
    Filippo Ranocchia: 218 passningar, xT 1.18RanocchiaPietro Ceccaroni: 171 passningar, xT 0.28CeccaroniTommaso Augello: 160 passningar, xT 0.37AugelloAntonio Palumbo: 136 passningar, xT 0.71PalumboJesse Pekka Joronen: 124 passningar, xT 0.14JoronenPatryk Peda: 107 passningar, xT 0.22PedaNiccolo Pierozzi: 100 passningar, xT 0.25PierozziGiangiacomo Magnani: 79 passningar, xT 0.16MagnaniJacopo Segre: 66 passningar, xT -0.06SegreRui Manuel Muati Modesto: 64 passningar, xT 0.37ModestoAlexis Blin: 49 passningar, xT 0.05Blin
    Juve Stabia
    Andrea Giorgini: 334 passningar, xT 0.22GiorginiMarco Bellich: 262 passningar, xT 0.35BellichGiuseppe Leone: 179 passningar, xT -0.01LeoneChristian Dalle Mura: 173 passningar, xT 0.17MuraSalim Diakite: 154 passningar, xT 0.07DiakiteNicola Mosti: 127 passningar, xT 0.3MostiOmar Correia: 120 passningar, xT 0.01CorreiaAlessandro Confente: 91 passningar, xT 0.21ConfenteLorenzo Carissoni: 78 passningar, xT 0.11CarissoniChristian Pierobon: 72 passningar, xT -0.05PierobonAlessio Cacciamani: 70 passningar, xT 0.38Cacciamani

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePalermoJuve Stabia
    Points7555
    xPoints67.157.8
    xG per match1.71.3
    xGA per match1.11.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.18
    Playing stylePalermoJuve Stabia
    Build-up efficiency0.30.28
    Field tilt0.50.46
    xT per match1.10.71
    xTA per match0.850.87
    Won balls, offensive half2923
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.30.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.33
    Entries into the box per match1410
    Entries into the box against1112
    Pass completion %0.730.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.73
    Passes per match302371
    Passes against per match324315
    Switches of play per match24.618.8
    Long balls per match2924
    Set piecesPalermoJuve Stabia
    xG from free kicks0.130.05
    Corners per match54.5
    Corners against per match4.54.2
    xG per corner0.080.05
    xGA per corner against0.050.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.520.3
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.54
    OtherPalermoJuve Stabia
    Throw-in control0.670.68
    The goalkeepersJesse Pekka Joronen (Palermo)Alessandro Confente (Juve Stabia)
    Saves11290
    Save %78%69%
    xG prevented53%40%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Palermo vs Juve Stabia according to our model?

    The model gives Palermo a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Palermo 52%, draw 26%, Juve Stabia 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.