Pisa vs Padova: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Serie B23 August 2026Arena Garibaldi, Pisa26°9 km/h

Pisa

PadovaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Pisa (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Padova @ 4.80 (+21 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Pisa 48%X 26%25% Padova · 2

48%

26%

25%

Analysis: Pisa – Padova

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Pisa Sporting Club, currently tipped by the model with a 48% probability of winning, faces off against Calcio Padova in a Serie B clash that promises tension more than goals. The most likely scorelines suggest a tight affair, with 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), and 0-0 (10%) leading the way. Pisa's expected goals tally of 1.34 slightly edges Calcio Padova's 1.01, hinting at a narrow margin of victory for the hosts.

But numbers alone don't tell the full tale. Pisa Sporting Club's recent form suggests they could have the upper hand, and with the model's probabilities backing them, their chances are solid. Yet, those hoping for a goal-fest might be left wanting as the over 2.5 goals probability languishes at just 42%. Defenses could very well dictate the game's rhythm, particularly with a 47% chance of both teams finding the net.

Calcio Padova, however, isn't to be underestimated. Despite their underdog status, there's substantial value in betting on their victory at odds of 4.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a model-rated chance of 25% against the bookies' implied probability, the 23% edge is hard to ignore for those seeking a calculated gamble.

Head-to-head data, limited in scope, carries less weight in this encounter compared to current form and expected goals. Thus, Pisa Sporting Club appears poised to edge this one, quite possibly by a slender 1-0 margin. Yet, in the world of betting, sometimes the best moves are the bold ones. With Calcio Padova's odds offering such a significant edge, the lure of the outsider is a tempting proposition.

Pisa

Form WWWLD

Key players

Stefano MoreoFxG 0.26 · xT 0.12
Matteo TramoniLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.18
Idrissa ToureRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.10

Padova

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #14xP/match #20Points #11

Key players

Kevin LasagnaFxG 0.30 · xT 0.02
Mattia BortolussiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.02
Alessandro CapelliRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Pisa – Padova

Predicted score matrix

Padova →

Pisa →

0–09.9%

0–19.3%

0–24.9%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.5%

1–012.4%

1–113.3%

1–26.5%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.5%

2–18.6%

2–24.4%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.8%

3–13.9%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,34–1,01

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.65

Over 2,542%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pisa to win48%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pisa to win48%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Stefano Moreo to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Stefano Moreo to score27%
Marco Perrotta to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Padova25% probability@4.80BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
2 · Padova25% probability@4.80BetssonEV+21%reference odds
2 · Padova25% probability@4.80NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pisa	X	2 · Padova
Betsafe	1.72	3.35	EV+ 21% 4.80
Betsson	1.72	3.35	EV+ 21% 4.80
Nordicbet	1.72	3.35	EV+ 21% 4.80

Odds updated 18 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

1+2 %

56 %51 %

1.68 → 1.72

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.35

2-2 %

21 %16 %

4.90 → 4.80

Over 2,5+2 %

47 %42 %

2.05 → 2.10

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pisa

Padova

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Padova (39–49)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Padova

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Padova

The goalkeepers	Pisa	Alessandro Sorrentino (Padova)
Saves	–	86
Save %	–	74%
xG prevented	–	53%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pisa vs Padova according to our model?

The model gives Pisa a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pisa 48%, draw 26%, Padova 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.