Pisa vs Catanzaro: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Serie B30 August 2026Arena Garibaldi, Pisa26°14 km/h

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PisaBalanced & physical

CatanzaroCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Catanzaro (39%)

1 · Pisa 34%X 28%39% Catanzaro · 2

34%

28%

39%

Analysis: Pisa – Catanzaro

Sofia Andersson · 25 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Pisa's home resilience meets Catanzaro's potential in a Serie B clash that tilts slightly towards the visitors. The model probabilities favor Catanzaro with a 39% chance of victory, leaning towards a narrow win or a draw, and suggesting a tight contest. Despite Pisa's seemingly stronger xG numbers, translating this advantage into goals has been their Achilles' heel, reflected in their modest expected goals tally of 1.08.

The home side's balanced and physical approach contrasts with Catanzaro's counter-attacking and crossing strategy. Yet, the hosts have not capitalized on their xG superiority, evidenced by their xPoints advantage of 2.1 to Catanzaro's 1.2. Moreover, Pisa's defensive xGA of 0.63 per match should, in theory, give them a solid base, but the predicted low scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 suggest otherwise. The head-to-head record, albeit from a small sample, shows two draws, hinting at a closely-fought affair.

Catanzaro's edge in the model is not mirrored in their xG stats, where Pisa stands taller. However, the visitors' ability to find value at odds of 4.2 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, given a 39% win probability, offers a tempting proposition. This suggests that despite Pisa’s statistical edges, the visitors could exploit the hosts’ inefficiencies in converting chances.

The under 2.5 goals market leans towards a low-scoring game, with just 42% backing the over. Both teams scoring sits under 50%, further emphasizing a likely cagey affair. A 1-1 draw appears the most probable outcome, but Catanzaro's value at odds of 4.2 cannot be ignored for those seeking a sharp betting angle. This assessment underscores an intriguing betting opportunity where the numbers support a play on the visitors.

Pisa

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #17

Key players

Stefano MoreoFxG 0.26 · xT 0.07
Samuele AngoriLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.20
Malthe HøjholtFxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Numbers from Serie A 2025

Catanzaro

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #19xT #11xP/match #11Points #12

Key players

Pietro IemmelloFxG 0.32 · xT 0.05
Filippo PittarelloFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06
Simone PontissoCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Pisa – Catanzaro

Predicted score matrix

Catanzaro →

Pisa →

0–09.9%

0–111.7%

0–27.7%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.4%

1–09.8%

1–113.4%

1–28.3%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.5%

2–05.5%

2–17.0%

2–24.5%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.0%

3–12.5%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,08–1,28

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.60

Over 2,542%

@2.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Catanzaro or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Catanzaro or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Mattia Liberali to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Mattia Liberali to score24%
Michel Aebischer to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Catanzaro39% probability@4.73PinnacleEV+82%reference odds
2 · Catanzaro39% probability@4.30BetsafeEV+66%reference odds
2 · Catanzaro39% probability@4.30BetssonEV+66%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pisa	X	2 · Catanzaro
Betsafe	1.82	3.15	EV+ 66% 4.30
Betsson	1.82	3.15	EV+ 66% 4.30
Nordicbet	1.82	3.15	EV+ 66% 4.30
Pinnacle	1.80	3.45	EV+ 82% 4.73

Odds updated 28 Aug, 13:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Pisa win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.99 to 1.80 (−10%).

1-10 %

55 %45 %

1.99 → 1.80

X+6 %

33 %23 %

3.26 → 3.45

2+17 %

27 %17 %

4.04 → 4.73

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Pisa 0Draw 2Catanzaro 0

Goals: 0–0

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pisa

Catanzaro

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pisa (0–1)

Catanzaro (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pisa

Catanzaro

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pisa

Catanzaro

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pisa	Catanzaro
Points	0	0
xPoints	2.1	1.2
xG per match	2	1.6
xGA per match	0.63	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.3

Playing style	Pisa	Catanzaro
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.66	0.56
xT per match	1.8	0.97
xTA per match	1.1	2.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	12
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.09
Entries into the box per match	15	10
Entries into the box against	15	18
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.8
Passes per match	468	349
Passes against per match	326	304
Switches of play per match	29.9	23
Long balls per match	30	27

Set pieces	Pisa	Catanzaro
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	4.1	6
Corners against per match	6.2	10
xG per corner	0.01	0.12
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.7

Other	Pisa	Catanzaro
Throw-in control	0.78	0.87

The goalkeepers	Simone Canestrelli (Pisa)	Mirko Pigliacelli (Catanzaro)
Saves	2	6
Save %	100%	67%
xG prevented	100%	71%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pisa vs Catanzaro according to our model?

The model gives Catanzaro a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pisa 34%, draw 28%, Catanzaro 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.