Pisa vs Virtus Entella: Prediction & Odds (11 Sept 2026)

Serie B11 September 2026Arena Garibaldi, Pisa23°13 km/h

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PisaBalanced & physical

Virtus EntellaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Pisa (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Virtus Entella @ 5.32 (+74 %)

1 · Pisa 38%X 29%33% Virtus Entella · 2

38%

29%

33%

Analysis: Pisa – Virtus Entella

Oscar Nilsson · 10 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Pisa goes into this clash with Virtus Entella holding a slight edge, yet the betting market seems to overlook the visitors' potential for a surprise. While Pisa has shown a stronger form with 6 points compared to Entella’s solitary point, the game could be more balanced than expected. The mathematical model assigns a 38% chance to a Pisa victory and 33% to Entella, highlighting the narrow gap. A 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 13%, but don't discount the 0-1 possibility, sitting closely at 10%.

Pisa's advantage is evident in metrics like xG (1.9 vs 0.94) and xGA (0.76 vs 0.9), suggesting a more potent and defensively sound team. However, Entella's possession and high-press style could disrupt Pisa’s balanced approach. The expected goals indicate a tight contest: Pisa at 1.21 and Entella at 1.17. The chance of over 2.5 goals is modest at just 42%, suggesting a low-scoring encounter, while both teams scoring hovers around 49%.

Despite Pisa’s statistical edge, there’s significant value in backing Entella at 4.9 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This represents a 60% edge over the model's 33% chance for an away win. While not a guarantee, it’s an angle worth considering for bettors seeking value in the market.

The game is likely to be closely contested, potentially ending in a draw or a marginal victory for either side. The model leans slightly towards Pisa, but with the odds on Entella offering a substantial edge, savvy punters might find the visitors worth a flutter.

Pisa

Form LDLWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Samuele AngoriLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.18
Mattéo TramoniLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.38
Mehdi LerisLBxG 0.22 · xT 0.21

Virtus Entella

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #5xP/match #15Points #16

Key players

Bernat Guiu VilanovaLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
Mattia AlborghettiCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Andrea TiritielloCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Pisa – Virtus Entella

Predicted score matrix

Virtus Entella →

Pisa →

0–09.7%

0–110.5%

0–26.3%

0–32.5%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.8%

1–113.5%

1–27.7%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.8%

2–17.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.7%

3–13.2%

3–21.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,21–1,17

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.62

Over 2,542%

@2.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Pisa or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Pisa or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals58%
M'Bala Nzola to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Andrea Franzoni to score30%
Leonardo Benedetti to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Virtus Entella33% probability@5.32PinnacleEV+74%reference odds
2 · Virtus Entella33% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+67%reference odds
2 · Virtus Entella33% probability@5.10BetssonEV+67%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pisa	X	2 · Virtus Entella
Betsafe	1.70	3.25	EV+ 67% 5.10
Betsson	1.70	3.25	EV+ 67% 5.10
Nordicbet	1.70	3.25	EV+ 67% 5.10
Pinnacle	1.81	3.30	EV+ 74% 5.32

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

56 %51 %

1.87 → 1.81

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.30

2+14 %

21 %16 %

4.67 → 5.32

Over 2,5-1 %

44 %39 %

2.37 → 2.35

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pisa

Virtus Entella

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pisa (5–2)

Virtus Entella (3–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pisa

Virtus Entella

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pisa

Virtus Entella

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pisa	Virtus Entella
Points	6	1
xPoints	6.6	3.3
xG per match	1.9	0.94
xGA per match	0.76	0.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.28

Playing style	Pisa	Virtus Entella
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.56	0.74
xT per match	1.2	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.38
Won balls, offensive half	32	32
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.3
Entries into the box per match	15	16
Entries into the box against	15	4
Pass completion %	0.75	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	338	369
Passes against per match	386	300
Switches of play per match	19.5	31.6
Long balls per match	21	36

Set pieces	Pisa	Virtus Entella
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.09
Corners per match	4.4	4.9
Corners against per match	6	2.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.86

Other	Pisa	Virtus Entella
Throw-in control	0.65	0.8

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Confente (Pisa)	Federico Del Frate (Virtus Entella)
Saves	10	5
Save %	83%	50%
xG prevented	86%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pisa vs Virtus Entella according to our model?

The model gives Pisa a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pisa 38%, draw 29%, Virtus Entella 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.