01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sampdoria or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Serie BStadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova26°16 km/h
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SampdoriaPossession & high press1–2
Juve StabiaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Sampdoria (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Juve Stabia @ 4.86 (+54 %)
Sampdoria – Juve Stabia · Serie B
1 · Sampdoria 37%X 31%32% Juve Stabia · 2
37%
31%
32%
Analysis: Sampdoria – Juve Stabia
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Sampdoria's possession-based approach is set to collide with Juve Stabia’s counter-attacking style, creating a fascinating clash of football philosophies. With Sampdoria's inclination to dominate the ball and Juve Stabia's penchant for soaking up pressure before launching crosses and attacks, the tactical battle will likely be the heart of this matchup. The hosts may control possession, but the visitors are well-equipped to exploit any lapses with their swift counter-moves.
The numbers provide a slight edge to Sampdoria, as they have a 37% chance of victory, compared to Juve Stabia's 32%, with a 31% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals (xG) tally paints a similar picture: Sampdoria stands at 1.22 compared to Juve Stabia's 1.11. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw (14%), followed by a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts at 11%. History between these teams since 2023 includes four matches, balanced with a win each and two draws—though with such a small sample, form and current expectations weigh more heavily.
Defensively, Sampdoria appears more robust, boasting an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.67 per match, highlighting their ability to limit scoring opportunities. On the flip side, Juve Stabia's xGA stands at a more vulnerable 1.4. If the visitors fail to tighten up, Sampdoria's high press could capitalize. Yet, with 41% of matches predicted to exceed 2.5 goals and both teams to score at a moderate 48%, neither side is primed for a high-scoring affair.
For those eyeing value, the odds favor Juve Stabia as an intriguing underdog. At odds of 4.2 with bookies like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model suggests a 33% edge, highlighting a potential return if they spring a surprise. While Sampdoria may hold a slight advantage, the visitors' odds present a compelling case for those willing to back the unexpected.
SampdoriaForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #12xP/match #14Points #10
Key players
- Massimo CodaFxG 0.43 · xT 0.06
- Luigi CherubiniLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.12
- Liam HendersonCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Juve StabiaForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #10xP/match #16Points #18
Key players
- Leonardo CandelloneFxG 0.38 · xT 0.05
- Rareş Cătălin BurneteFxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
- Marco BellichCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sampdoria 37% · Draw 31% · Juve Stabia 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Juve StabiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 19,18fair 16,25+18 %
MissMatchresultat - SampdoriaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,86fair 13,62-42 %
MissMatch prediction: Sampdoria – Juve Stabia
Predicted score matrix
Juve Stabia →
Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.1%
0–110.4%
0–26.0%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–011.5%
1–113.6%
1–27.3%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.2%
2–18.0%
2–24.5%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.3%
3–21.8%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,22–1,11
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.64
Over 2,541%
@2.36
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sampdoria or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Massimo Coda to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Massimo Coda to score29%
- Giuseppe Leone to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Juve Stabia32% probability@4.86PinnacleEV+54%reference odds
- 2 · Juve Stabia32% probability@4.40BetsafeEV+39%reference odds
- 2 · Juve Stabia32% probability@4.40BetssonEV+39%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sampdoria | X | 2 · Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.82 | 3.15 | EV+ 39% 4.40 |
| Betsson | 1.82 | 3.15 | EV+ 39% 4.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | 3.15 | EV+ 39% 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | EV+ 5% 3.39 | EV+ 54% 4.86 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:37
Odds movement
1-3 %
53 %48 %
1.93 → 1.87
X+5 %
31 %26 %
3.23 → 3.39
2+11 %
23 %18 %
4.36 → 4.86
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSampdoria 1Draw 2Juve Stabia 1
Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sampdoria
Juve Stabia
Sampdoria (1–1)
Juve Stabia (0–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sampdoria
Juve Stabia
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sampdoria
Juve Stabia
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sampdoria | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 0 |
| xPoints | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.92 |
| xGA per match | 0.67 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| Playing style | Sampdoria | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.82 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 0.41 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| Entries into the box per match | 23 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 5 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 475 | 384 |
| Passes against per match | 238 | 323 |
| Switches of play per match | 39.8 | 26 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Sampdoria | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 12.3 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 0 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.83 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0 | 0.5 |
| Other | Sampdoria | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Peter Vindahl Jensen (Sampdoria) | Pietro Boer (Juve Stabia) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 1 | 4 |
| Save % | 50% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 20% | 82% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia according to our model?
The model gives Sampdoria a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sampdoria 37%, draw 31%, Juve Stabia 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.