01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Palermo or draw (X2)69%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Serie B24°9 km/h
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ArezzoPossession controlvs
PalermoCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Palermo (42%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.15 (+32 %)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Arezzo – Palermo · Serie B
1 · Arezzo 27%X 32%42% Palermo · 2
27%
32%
42%
Analysis: Arezzo – Palermo
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Arezzo's possession control meets Palermo's counter-attacking flair in a Serie B clash that promises to test both teams' strategic acumen. Arezzo, with an impressive 1.7 xG per match, seems capable of generating scoring opportunities even against Palermo's resilient defense. Yet, it's Palermo's knack for exploiting turnovers that could swing the match; their model-backed advantage sits at 42%, making them slight favorites heading into this matchup.
The expected goals metrics marginally favor Arezzo. With an xGA of 0.88 compared to Palermo's 0.92, the hosts may have the defensive edge. Yet, the most likely scorelines suggest a tight contest: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), and 0-1 (9%) point to a narrow, low-scoring margin, with 1-1 and 1-2 having both teams find the net. Despite the model's lean towards Palermo, Arezzo's ability to maintain control might just tilt the xPoints balance in their favor, suggesting a draw could be on the cards.
Intriguingly, the over 2.5 goal probability stands at 54%, with both teams to score at 58%. These metrics highlight an attacking intent that could lead to a high-scoring affair, particularly given Arezzo's xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.59) surpasses Palermo's (0.49). This suggests that quick transitions could catch Palermo off guard, despite their counter-attacking prowess.
As for bettors seeking value, the over 3.5 goals market offers an enticing opportunity. Odds of 4.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a 32% edge, according to the model. While this isn't a guarantee of a high-scoring spectacle, the potential return on investment makes this bet an attractive proposition for those willing to stake on a match that might surpass its expected intensity.
ArezzoForm W
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #7xP/match #3Points #4
Key players
- Artur IoniţăLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.14
- Camillo TavernelliLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
- Samuele RighettiLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.58
PalermoForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #13xP/match #5Points #7
Key players
- Joel PohjanpaloFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
- Tommaso AugelloLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
- Filippo RanocchiaCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Arezzo – Palermo
Predicted score matrix
Palermo →
Arezzo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–18.7%
0–27.1%
0–33.7%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–07.1%
1–112.0%
1–29.1%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–04.8%
2–17.5%
2–25.8%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–02.0%
3–13.2%
3–22.5%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,28–1,57
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@1.58
Over 2,554%
@2.39EV+22%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Palermo or draw (X2)69%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.532% probability@4.15BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
- Over 3.532% probability@4.15BetssonEV+32%reference odds
- Over 3.532% probability@4.15NordicbetEV+32%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Arezzo | X | 2 · Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.30 | 3.05 | 2.18 |
| Betsson | 3.30 | 3.05 | 2.18 |
| Nordicbet | 3.30 | 3.05 | 2.18 |
| Pinnacle | 3.66 | 3.11 | 2.18 |
Odds updated 27 Aug, 16:17
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Palermo win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 2.49 to 2.18 (−12%).
1+18 %
33 %23 %
3.10 → 3.66
X+2 %
36 %26 %
3.04 → 3.11
2-12 %
46 %36 %
2.49 → 2.18
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 27/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Arezzo
Palermo
Arezzo (2–1)
Palermo (1–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Arezzo
Palermo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Arezzo
Palermo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Arezzo | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPoints | 2.1 | 2 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0 |
| Playing style | Arezzo | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.42 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.99 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 15 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.1 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 303 | 323 |
| Passes against per match | 490 | 384 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.7 | 29 |
| Long balls per match | 47 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Arezzo | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 1 | 0.17 |
| Other | Arezzo | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.44 |
| The goalkeepers | Matteo Gilli (Arezzo) | Mattia Fortin (Palermo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 4 |
| Save % | 100% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Arezzo vs Palermo according to our model?
The model gives Palermo a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arezzo 27%, draw 32%, Palermo 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.