Serie BStadio Romeo Menti, Castellammare di Stabia26°14 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Juve StabiaJuve StabiaCounter-attacks & crosses
    0–3
    PisaPisaBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Juve Stabia (45%)

    Juve Stabia – Pisa · Serie B

    1 · Juve Stabia 45%X 31%24% Pisa · 2

    Analysis: Juve Stabia – Pisa

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    A 45% win probability for Juve Stabia stands out against Pisa’s 24%, signaling a clear model lean towards the hosts. Despite this, Pisa edges several advanced metrics: they lead in expected points, xG per match, and xGA per match. The visitors’ balanced and physical style contrasts with the hosts’ counter-attacking preference, suggesting a tactical clash that could influence the game's dynamics.

    While Juve Stabia's expected goals of 1.48 surpass Pisa’s 0.97, their xPoints and xG per match are notably lower. Pisa's superior stats in xGA and xG within 8 seconds of ball recovery point to a side that can defend solidly and strike quickly. However, the small head-to-head sample since 2023, split evenly between the two sides, carries less weight than these broader metrics.

    Nevertheless, there’s undeniable value in the hosts at odds of 2.8 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a 25% edge according to the model's 45% win expectancy. As the most probable scorelines are 1-1 and 1-0, a tight match seems likely, with the under 2.5 goals slightly more favorable at a 56% chance. The numbers suggest betting on a home win holds significant potential.

    Juve StabiaJuve Stabia
    Form WDLLW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #11xP/match #19Points #10
    Key players
    • Kevin PiscopoLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.31
    • Leonardo CandelloneFxG 0.32 · xT 0.01
    • Marco BellichCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
    PisaPisa
    Form WLDLW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #1xP/match #1Points #11
    Key players
    • Mattéo TramoniLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.62
    • Mehdi LerisLBxG 0.33 · xT 0.32
    • Omar CorreiaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Juve Stabia 45% · Draw 31% · Pisa 24%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Juve StabiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,12fair 9,54+17 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - PisaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,28fair 21,51-62 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Juve Stabia – Pisa

    Predicted score matrix

    Pisa →
    Juve Stabia →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.0%
    0–18.0%
    0–24.1%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–012.4%
    1–112.8%
    1–26.0%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.4%
    2–19.2%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–04.6%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,48–0,97
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,556%
    @1.75
    Over 2,544%
    @2.14

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Juve Stabia or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Juve Stabia or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Fabio Maistro to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • M'Bala Nzola to score23%
    • Giuseppe Leone to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Juve Stabia45% probability@3.43PinnacleEV+53%reference odds
    • 1 · Juve Stabia45% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
    • 1 · Juve Stabia45% probability@3.15BetssonEV+40%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Juve StabiaX2 · Pisa
    Betsafe
    EV+ 40%
    3.15    		3.002.25
    Betsson
    EV+ 40%
    3.15    		3.002.25
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 40%
    3.15    		3.002.25
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 53%
    3.43    		3.092.37

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.35 to 2.14 (−9%).

    1+21 %
    36 %26 %

    2.84 → 3.43

    X+1 %
    37 %27 %

    3.06 → 3.09

    2-9 %
    43 %33 %

    2.60 → 2.37

    Over 2,5-9 %
    47 %37 %

    2.35 → 2.14

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Juve Stabia 1Draw 0Pisa 1
    Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Juve Stabia
    Pisa
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Juve Stabia (2–2)
    Pisa (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Juve Stabia
    Davide Bettella: 170 passningar, xT 0.26BettellaMarco Bellich: 167 passningar, xT 0.07BellichManuel Ricciardi: 93 passningar, xT 0.04RicciardiDavide Buglio: 74 passningar, xT 0BuglioGiulio Scuderi: 65 passningar, xT 0.16ScuderiPietro Boer: 52 passningar, xT 0.01BoerChristian Pierobon: 47 passningar, xT 0.03PierobonNermin Karić: 37 passningar, xT 0.14KarićNicola Patanè: 23 passningar, xT 0.19PatanèFederico Artioli: 22 passningar, xT 0.01ArtioliThomas Battistella: 17 passningar, xT 0Battistella
    Pisa
    Giuseppe Leone: 85 passningar, xT 0.13LeoneMehdi Leris: 71 passningar, xT 0.45LerisSimone Canestrelli: 70 passningar, xT 0.05CanestrelliAlessandro Confente: 66 passningar, xT 0.05ConfenteSimone Zanon: 64 passningar, xT 0.66ZanonRosen Petkov Bozhinov: 59 passningar, xT 0.06BozhinovOmar Correia: 51 passningar, xT 0.07CorreiaMattéo Tramoni: 47 passningar, xT 0.74TramoniAndrea Petagna: 45 passningar, xT -0.09PetagnaArturo Calabresi: 38 passningar, xT 0.17Calabresiİsak Vural: 33 passningar, xT -0.02Vural
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Juve Stabia
    Davide Bettella: 170 passningar, xT 0.26BettellaMarco Bellich: 167 passningar, xT 0.07BellichManuel Ricciardi: 93 passningar, xT 0.04RicciardiDavide Buglio: 74 passningar, xT 0BuglioGiulio Scuderi: 65 passningar, xT 0.16ScuderiPietro Boer: 52 passningar, xT 0.01BoerChristian Pierobon: 47 passningar, xT 0.03PierobonNermin Karić: 37 passningar, xT 0.14KarićNicola Patanè: 23 passningar, xT 0.19PatanèFederico Artioli: 22 passningar, xT 0.01ArtioliThomas Battistella: 17 passningar, xT 0Battistella
    Pisa
    Giuseppe Leone: 85 passningar, xT 0.13LeoneMehdi Leris: 71 passningar, xT 0.45LerisSimone Canestrelli: 70 passningar, xT 0.05CanestrelliAlessandro Confente: 66 passningar, xT 0.05ConfenteSimone Zanon: 64 passningar, xT 0.66ZanonRosen Petkov Bozhinov: 59 passningar, xT 0.06BozhinovOmar Correia: 51 passningar, xT 0.07CorreiaMattéo Tramoni: 47 passningar, xT 0.74TramoniAndrea Petagna: 45 passningar, xT -0.09PetagnaArturo Calabresi: 38 passningar, xT 0.17Calabresiİsak Vural: 33 passningar, xT -0.02Vural

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJuve StabiaPisa
    Points33
    xPoints1.64.5
    xG per match1.12.1
    xGA per match1.40.71
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.28
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.440.08
    Playing styleJuve StabiaPisa
    Build-up efficiency0.280.3
    Field tilt0.410.61
    xT per match0.861.8
    xTA per match0.781.2
    Won balls, offensive half2732
    Pressing intensity0.280.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.26
    Entries into the box per match1319
    Entries into the box against1417
    Pass completion %0.80.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.790.72
    Passes per match399390
    Passes against per match319367
    Switches of play per match25.819.9
    Long balls per match2521
    Set piecesJuve StabiaPisa
    xG from free kicks00.02
    Corners per match6.35.1
    Corners against per match3.97.2
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.620.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.57
    OtherJuve StabiaPisa
    Throw-in control0.660.7
    The goalkeepersPietro Boer (Juve Stabia)Alessandro Confente (Pisa)
    Saves97
    Save %82%78%
    xG prevented71%82%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Juve Stabia
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Pisa
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Juve Stabia vs Pisa according to our model?

    The model gives Juve Stabia a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Juve Stabia 45%, draw 31%, Pisa 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.