Südtirol vs Catanzaro: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Serie B5 September 2026Stadio Druso, Bolzano27°12 km/h

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SüdtirolCounter-attacks & crosses

2–0

CatanzaroCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Südtirol (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Catanzaro @ 3.33 (+10 %)

1 · Südtirol 37%X 30%33% Catanzaro · 2

37%

30%

33%

Analysis: Südtirol – Catanzaro

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Südtirol's recent unbeaten streak across five league games highlights their current form, despite their lower expected goals tally compared to Catanzaro. The hosts have a slight edge in model probabilities at 37% to secure a win, but the match is finely balanced with a draw at 30% and the visitors at 33%. Both teams employ a similar counter-attacking style with an emphasis on crossing, suggesting a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair.

The head-to-head record is limited to just four matches since 2023, showing an even split with one win each and two draws. While Südtirol has the edge in points and xPoints, Catanzaro surpasses them with a higher expected goals per match at 1.2, indicating a potential threat in front of goal. However, Südtirol's defense could prove robust enough to handle the visitors' attacking attempts given their superior xGA per match.

Despite Südtirol's slight model lean, bettors might find value in backing Catanzaro at odds of 3.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, where there's a 4% edge. A 1-1 draw is the most probable scoreline at 13%, with over 2.5 goals having a modest 44% probability. The numbers suggest a tight contest with both defenses potentially holding firm.

Südtirol

Form DDDWD

League ranking xG #20xGA #14xT #18xP/match #14Points #6

Key players

Andrea GiorginiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Silvio MerkajFxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
Simone TronchinCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.01

Catanzaro

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #19xT #8xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Jacopo PetriccioneCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.25
N'Dri Philippe KoffiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.07
Pietro IemmelloCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.14

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Südtirol 37% · Draw 30% · Catanzaro 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CatanzaroBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,16fair 11,34+7 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SudtirolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,93fair 15,35-42 %

Miss

Match prediction: Südtirol – Catanzaro

Predicted score matrix

Catanzaro →

Südtirol →

0–09.0%

0–111.0%

0–27.5%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.3%

1–113.2%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.5%

2–17.3%

2–24.8%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.1%

3–12.8%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,13–1,32

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.79

Over 2,544%

@2.15

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Südtirol or draw (1X)59%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Südtirol or draw (1X)59%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Silvio Merkaj to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Mattia Liberali to score24%
Simone Tronchin to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Catanzaro33% probability@3.33PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
2 · Catanzaro33% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
2 · Catanzaro33% probability@3.15BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Südtirol	X	2 · Catanzaro
Betsafe	2.25	3.00	EV+ 4% 3.15
Betsson	2.25	3.00	EV+ 4% 3.15
Nordicbet	2.25	3.00	EV+ 4% 3.15
Pinnacle	2.41	3.11	EV+ 10% 3.33

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.28 to 2.09 (−8%).

1+6 %

42 %37 %

2.28 → 2.41

X-2 %

34 %29 %

3.17 → 3.11

20 %

32 %27 %

3.34 → 3.33

Over 2,5-8 %

46 %41 %

2.28 → 2.09

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Südtirol 1Draw 2Catanzaro 1

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

Key facts

Sudtirol are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Südtirol

Catanzaro

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Südtirol (2–1)

Catanzaro (3–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Südtirol

Catanzaro

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Südtirol

Catanzaro

The teams in numbers

Performance	Südtirol	Catanzaro
Points	4	0
xPoints	2	1.7
xG per match	0.59	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.36

Playing style	Südtirol	Catanzaro
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.32	0.49
xT per match	0.41	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	13	17
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.19
Entries into the box per match	6	14
Entries into the box against	16	20
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.77
Passes per match	356	378
Passes against per match	360	309
Switches of play per match	18	19.6
Long balls per match	24	24

Set pieces	Südtirol	Catanzaro
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	0.97	7
Corners against per match	7.8	8.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.62

Other	Südtirol	Catanzaro
Throw-in control	0.71	0.67

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Plizzari (Südtirol)	Mirko Pigliacelli (Catanzaro)
Saves	6	12
Save %	86%	71%
xG prevented	27%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Südtirol

Fixtures, form & tips

Catanzaro

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Südtirol vs Catanzaro according to our model?

The model gives Südtirol a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Südtirol 37%, draw 30%, Catanzaro 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.