Avellino vs Vicenza: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Serie B29 August 2026Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino28°17 km/h

Läs på svenska

AvellinoPossession control

3–0

VicenzaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Avellino (48%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.85 (+60 %)

1 · Avellino 48%X 19%33% Vicenza · 2

48%

19%

33%

Analysis: Avellino – Vicenza

Sofia Andersson · 27 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Avellino and Vicenza face off with an intriguing backdrop: the hosts dominate possession, while the visitors thrive on counterattacks and crosses. Despite Avellino's home advantage and a model probability slightly favoring them at 48%, the numbers lean more towards a balanced encounter. Both sides seem evenly poised with the most likely scorelines tied at 1-1 and 2-1, making the match ripe for unpredictability.

Avellino's expected goals (xG) per match stands at 0.88, considerably lower than Vicenza's 2.1, underscoring a stark contrast in attacking efficiency. Meanwhile, the expected goals against (xGA) figures are closely matched, with Avellino at 1.7 and Vicenza at 1.6, pointing to potential defensive vulnerabilities. This paints a picture of Avellino struggling to convert possession into chances, while Vicenza's countering style may exploit these gaps.

In terms of form, Vicenza has the upper hand, capturing 3 points in contrast to Avellino's zero. This reflects in their xPoints as well, where Vicenza leads 1.5 to 0.7. The visitors' recent performances indicate a more effective conversion of chances, a critical factor that might tilt the match in their favor despite Avellino's possession dominance. The model's expectations of a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 63%, suggest an open game.

There's a particularly sharp betting angle here. The over 3.5 goals market shows significant value at odds of 3.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model calculates a 42% probability for this outcome, translating to a massive 60% edge. Given both teams' tendencies and xG metrics, this bet could be a smart play for those seeking value beyond traditional outcomes.

Avellino

Form WLWLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #4xP/match #17Points #15

Key players

Raffaele RussoLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.30
Luca PalmieroCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Tommaso CancellottiRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.36

Vicenza

Form W

League ranking xG #2xGA #15xT #1xP/match #7Points #1

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Avellino 48% · Draw 19% · Vicenza 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AvellinoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,96fair 5,14+74 %

Miss

Matchresultat - L.R. Vicenza VirtusBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,48fair 10,97+14 %

Miss

Match prediction: Avellino – Vicenza

Predicted score matrix

Vicenza →

Avellino →

0–04.0%

0–14.7%

0–23.4%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.7%

1–07.0%

1–110.1%

1–26.5%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.1%

2–19.5%

2–26.3%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–04.6%

3–16.2%

3–24.1%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.8%

4+–03.5%

4+–14.7%

4+–23.1%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-07%
4.1-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,95–1,34

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@1.65

Over 2,564%

@2.34EV+39%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Avellino to win48%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Avellino to win48%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Valerio Crespi to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Valerio Crespi to score32%
Marco Carraro to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.542% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+60%reference odds
Over 3.542% probability@3.85BetssonEV+60%reference odds
Over 3.542% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+60%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Avellino	X	2 · Vicenza
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 2.22	3.00	EV+ 4% 3.20
Betsson	EV+ 7% 2.22	3.00	EV+ 4% 3.20
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.22	3.00	EV+ 4% 3.20
Pinnacle	EV+ 17% 2.43	2.97	EV+ 14% 3.51

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

1-4 %

45 %35 %

2.52 → 2.43

X-4 %

37 %27 %

3.11 → 2.97

2+17 %

34 %24 %

2.99 → 3.51

Over 2,5+4 %

47 %37 %

2.25 → 2.34

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avellino

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Avellino (1–2)

Vicenza (3–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avellino

Vicenza

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avellino

Vicenza

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avellino	Vicenza
Points	0	3
xPoints	0.7	1.5
xG per match	0.88	2.1
xGA per match	1.7	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.59	0

Playing style	Avellino	Vicenza
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.27
Field tilt	0.46	0.44
xT per match	1.4	2.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	24	21
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.19
Entries into the box per match	16	18
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.83	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.8
Passes per match	490	304
Passes against per match	303	349
Switches of play per match	44.6	35
Long balls per match	44	46

Set pieces	Avellino	Vicenza
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4	10
Corners against per match	2	6
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.12
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.5

Other	Avellino	Vicenza
Throw-in control	0.84	0.73

The goalkeepers	Lorenco Simic (Avellino)	Riccardo Gagno (Vicenza)
Saves	2	4
Save %	100%	67%
xG prevented	100%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Avellino

Fixtures, form & tips

Vicenza

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avellino vs Vicenza according to our model?

The model gives Avellino a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avellino 48%, draw 19%, Vicenza 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.