Hellas Verona vs Ascoli: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Serie B23 August 2026Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona25°12 km/h

Hellas Verona

Ascoli

The model's lean: 1 · Hellas Verona (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ascoli @ 5.10 (+39 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Hellas Verona 40%X 32%27% Ascoli · 2

40%

32%

27%

Analysis: Hellas Verona – Ascoli

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

40% to Verona, 32% to a draw, and 27% to Ascoli — these percentages tell a story of a match tight enough to play a symphony on a razor's edge. The model leans towards Verona, not overwhelmingly but enough to tickle the edges of optimism for the home side. While the most likely scorelines each settle at 14% for 1-0, 1-1, and 0-0, a whiff of defensive sturdiness permeates the air more than a dazzling display of attacking prowess.

Verona step onto the pitch bearing the mantle of favorites, with expected goals at 1.11 suggesting they hold the slight upper hand. Yet, they're hardly a free-scoring juggernaut; their potential seems to hinge on eking out slender margins rather than blowing opponents away. As for Ascoli, their hopes rest on a delicate balance, with expected goals of 0.92 indicating they're not just here to roll over. The air promises a tactical chess match rather than a goal fest, with only a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.

Ascoli, though not front-runners, carry an intriguing proposition for the daring. The value bet here shines like a beacon for bold punters: away at odds 5.1 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, where the model rates it a 27% chance, offering a substantial 39% edge. Keep your eyes peeled on Ascoli's counter-punching resilience; it's not a guarantee, but it whispers of potential profits in the underbelly of this fixture.

Verona's home advantage edges them towards the likely 1-0 scoreline, yet the clever money might just find its way to Ascoli in the betting books. With defensive natures likely to suppress goals, under 2.5 goals becomes all the more tempting. Can Ascoli defy the odds? It's a question worth asking, as the betting lines suggest the boldest bets might just yield the most significant returns.

Hellas Verona

Ascoli

Form DWLDW

Key players

Eric BotteghinCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Marcello FalzeranoRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.26
Karim ZedadkaLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Hellas Verona – Ascoli

Predicted score matrix

Ascoli →

Hellas Verona →

0–013.5%

0–111.7%

0–25.6%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.5%

1–014.2%

1–113.8%

1–26.2%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.5%

2–08.1%

2–17.4%

2–23.4%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–03.0%

3–12.7%

3–21.3%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-114%
3.0-014%
4.0-112%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,11–0,92

Both teams to score

41%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,0

014%

126%

227%

318%

49%

Under 2,567%

@1.82EV+22%

Over 2,533%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hellas Verona or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hellas Verona or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals67%
Kieron Thomas Bowie to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score41%
Over 2.5 goals33%
Kieron Thomas Bowie to score24%
Karim Zedadka to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ascoli27% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+39%reference odds
2 · Ascoli27% probability@5.10BetssonEV+39%reference odds
2 · Ascoli27% probability@5.10NordicbetEV+39%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hellas Verona	X	2 · Ascoli
Betsafe	1.60	EV+ 17% 3.60	EV+ 39% 5.10
Betsson	1.60	EV+ 17% 3.60	EV+ 39% 5.10
Nordicbet	1.60	EV+ 17% 3.60	EV+ 39% 5.10

Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

Ascoli (38–42)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ascoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ascoli

The goalkeepers	Hellas Verona	Emiliano Viviano (Ascoli)
Saves	–	69
Save %	–	68%
xG prevented	–	41%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hellas Verona vs Ascoli according to our model?

The model gives Hellas Verona a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hellas Verona 40%, draw 32%, Ascoli 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 33% and under at 67%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 41% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.