Serie BStadio Comunale, Chiavari

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    Virtus EntellaVirtus EntellaPossession & high press
    2–2
    VicenzaVicenzaCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Vicenza (44%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.90 (+74 %)

    Virtus Entella – Vicenza · Serie B

    1 · Virtus Entella 37%X 20%44% Vicenza · 2

    Analysis: Virtus Entella – Vicenza

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Virtus Entella's reliance on possession and high pressing comes under the microscope as they face Vicenza, who thrive on counter-attacks and crosses. Both teams enter this matchup with contrasting strengths that define this Serie B fixture. Entella's approach is clear, but their effectiveness is questioned by their current form. With zero points so far and a low xG of just 0.74 per match, their strategy hasn't translated into tangible success. In contrast, Vicenza's counter-attacking style has proven effective, evidenced by their higher xG of 1.7 per match and three points already secured.

    The model gives Vicenza a slight edge with a 44% probability of winning compared to Entella's 37%, and this is reflected in the expected goals as well — 1.63 for Vicenza against Entella's 1.80. Despite the slight tilt towards the visitors, the most likely scorelines suggest a closely fought contest. A 1-1 draw leads the predictions with a 10% chance, followed closely by a 2-1 scoreline for Entella and a 1-2 scoreline for Vicenza. The hosts' better defensive numbers, with an xGA of 0.61 compared to Vicenza's 1.1, might give them a glimmer of hope in stifling the visitors' attack.

    Goals seem likely in this clash. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 66%, with both teams expected to score 67% of the time. The high-press versus counter-attack dynamic could lead to an open game despite Entella's struggles in converting possession into goals. For those seeking value, the betting market offers a compelling angle: over 3.5 goals at odds of 4.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 45%, providing a significant 85% edge.

    In essence, while Vicenza holds a slight advantage, the game's chaotic nature and the attacking thrusts from both sides make a high-scoring affair not just possible, but probable. A 1-2 victory for the visitors seems the most plausible outcome, with over 2.5 goals a solid lean. Yet, the real value lies in daring to believe the fireworks will extend even further.

    Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella
    Form WLWLL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #2xT #6xP/match #13Points #19
    Key players
    • Bernat Guiu VilanovaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    • Andrea TiritielloCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
    • Stefano Di MarioLWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.48
    VicenzaVicenza
    Form WL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #2xP/match #11Points #8
    Key players
    • Gabriele MonciniFxG 0.33 · xT 0.09
    • Filippo CostaLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.28
    • Filippo AlessioLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Virtus Entella 37% · Draw 20% · Vicenza 44%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Virtus EntellaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,48fair 5,85+45 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Virtus Entella – Vicenza

    Predicted score matrix

    Vicenza →
    Virtus Entella →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.5%
    0–15.0%
    0–24.3%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.4%
    1
    1–05.6%
    1–19.8%
    1–27.7%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.5%
    2
    2–05.3%
    2–18.6%
    2–27.0%
    2–33.8%
    2–4+2.2%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–15.1%
    3–24.2%
    3–32.3%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–22.8%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.9%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,80–1,63
    Both teams to score
    67%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    @1.66
    Over 2,566%
    @2.29EV+46%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vicenza or draw (X2)58%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.02

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vicenza or draw (X2)58%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Filippo Alessio to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score67%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Andrea Franzoni to score35%
    • Marco Carraro to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.545% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+74%reference odds
    • Over 3.545% probability@3.90BetssonEV+74%reference odds
    • Over 3.545% probability@3.90NordicbetEV+74%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Virtus EntellaX2 · Vicenza
    Betsafe2.102.95
    EV+ 58%
    3.60
    Betsson2.102.95
    EV+ 58%
    3.60
    Nordicbet2.102.95
    EV+ 58%
    3.60
    Pinnacle2.193.14
    EV+ 67%
    3.80

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Virtus Entella win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.30 to 2.19 (−5%).

    1-5 %
    45 %40 %

    2.30 → 2.19

    X+4 %
    33 %28 %

    3.03 → 3.14

    2+14 %
    29 %24 %

    3.33 → 3.80

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Virtus Entella
    Vicenza
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Virtus Entella (1–3)
    Vicenza (3–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Virtus Entella
    Luca Parodi: 113 passningar, xT 0.26ParodiAndrea Tiritiello: 103 passningar, xT 0.14TiritielloNiccolò Squizzato: 99 passningar, xT 0.34SquizzatoMattia Alborghetti: 98 passningar, xT 0.1AlborghettiStefano Di Mario: 67 passningar, xT 0.9MarioBernat Guiu Vilanova: 54 passningar, xT 0.02VilanovaLucas Martello Felippe Nascimento: 46 passningar, xT 0.08NascimentoFederico Del Frate: 44 passningar, xT 0.08FrateLuca Vignali: 35 passningar, xT 0.02VignaliAndrea Franzoni: 34 passningar, xT 0.62FranzoniNicolas Previtali: 22 passningar, xT -0.06Previtali
    Vicenza
    Giuseppe Cuomo: 96 passningar, xT 0.3CuomoRiccardo Marchizza: 95 passningar, xT 0.11MarchizzaMaxime Jean Roberto Leverbe: 65 passningar, xT 0.38LeverbeLoris Zonta: 63 passningar, xT 0.04ZontaLorenzo Caferri: 60 passningar, xT 0.53CaferriMarco Carraro: 58 passningar, xT 0.02CarraroFilippo Costa: 51 passningar, xT 0.43CostaRiccardo Gagno: 46 passningar, xT 0.1GagnoGiulio Pellizzari: 33 passningar, xT -0.01PellizzariFilippo Alessio: 28 passningar, xT 0.06AlessioAlessandro Pietrelli: 27 passningar, xT 0.05Pietrelli
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Virtus Entella
    Luca Parodi: 113 passningar, xT 0.26ParodiAndrea Tiritiello: 103 passningar, xT 0.14TiritielloNiccolò Squizzato: 99 passningar, xT 0.34SquizzatoMattia Alborghetti: 98 passningar, xT 0.1AlborghettiStefano Di Mario: 67 passningar, xT 0.9MarioBernat Guiu Vilanova: 54 passningar, xT 0.02VilanovaLucas Martello Felippe Nascimento: 46 passningar, xT 0.08NascimentoFederico Del Frate: 44 passningar, xT 0.08FrateLuca Vignali: 35 passningar, xT 0.02VignaliAndrea Franzoni: 34 passningar, xT 0.62FranzoniNicolas Previtali: 22 passningar, xT -0.06Previtali
    Vicenza
    Giuseppe Cuomo: 96 passningar, xT 0.3CuomoRiccardo Marchizza: 95 passningar, xT 0.11MarchizzaMaxime Jean Roberto Leverbe: 65 passningar, xT 0.38LeverbeLoris Zonta: 63 passningar, xT 0.04ZontaLorenzo Caferri: 60 passningar, xT 0.53CaferriMarco Carraro: 58 passningar, xT 0.02CarraroFilippo Costa: 51 passningar, xT 0.43CostaRiccardo Gagno: 46 passningar, xT 0.1GagnoGiulio Pellizzari: 33 passningar, xT -0.01PellizzariFilippo Alessio: 28 passningar, xT 0.06AlessioAlessandro Pietrelli: 27 passningar, xT 0.05Pietrelli

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVirtus EntellaVicenza
    Points03
    xPoints2.12.9
    xG per match0.741.7
    xGA per match0.611.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.070.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.070.05
    Playing styleVirtus EntellaVicenza
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.770.53
    xT per match1.31.5
    xTA per match0.360.85
    Won balls, offensive half3530
    Pressing intensity0.20.25
    Pressing efficiency0.330.22
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.23
    Entries into the box per match1815
    Entries into the box against39
    Pass completion %0.770.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.77
    Passes per match394364
    Passes against per match315325
    Switches of play per match30.534.8
    Long balls per match3243
    Set piecesVirtus EntellaVicenza
    xG from free kicks0.040.07
    Corners per match5.48.6
    Corners against per match1.54
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.09
    First touch, offensive corners %0.550.29
    First touch, defensive corners %10.62
    OtherVirtus EntellaVicenza
    Throw-in control0.750.76
    The goalkeepersFederico Del Frate (Virtus Entella)Riccardo Gagno (Vicenza)
    Saves29
    Save %40%64%
    xG prevented22%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Virtus Entella
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Vicenza
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Virtus Entella vs Vicenza according to our model?

    The model gives Vicenza a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Virtus Entella 37%, draw 20%, Vicenza 44%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.