Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

J1 League5 September 2026Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka25°13,8 mm17 km/h

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Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

Mito HollyhockBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Avispa Fukuoka (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mito Hollyhock @ 3.85 (+11 %)

1 · Avispa Fukuoka 40%X 31%29% Mito Hollyhock · 2

40%

31%

29%

Analysis: Avispa Fukuoka – Mito Hollyhock

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Avispa Fukuoka enters the matchup with a 40% probability of winning, slightly favored over Mito Hollyhock's 29%. The model's lean towards the hosts is reflected in the expected goals, with Fukuoka at 1.24 compared to Mito's 0.92. Despite Mito's superior goal creation at 1.5 xG per match, their defensive frailty is evident, conceding 1.7 xGA per match. Avispa's sturdier defense, allowing just 0.91 xGA, could tip the balance in a low-scoring affair.

The scoreboard may not see much action, given the likelihood of a 1-0 or 1-1 result at 14%, and a 12% chance of a 0-0 stalemate. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at just 37%, and with both teams likely to cancel each other out, a tight contest is on the cards. The expected rain will likely slow down the pace of play, already factored into the cautious goal projections.

From a betting perspective, the model's lean favors Fukuoka to edge a narrow victory, perhaps 1-0, in what figures to be a scrappy, low-scoring encounter, backed by their solid defensive record.

Avispa Fukuoka

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #14xP/match #8Points #15

Key players

Werik Silva PintoFxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.10
Yu HashimotoRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.17

Mito Hollyhock

Form LDWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #16xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Kotaro UchinoFxG 0.38 · xT -0.07
Takumi MaseRWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.24
Sho OmoriLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Avispa Fukuoka – Mito Hollyhock

Predicted score matrix

Mito Hollyhock →

Avispa Fukuoka →

0–011.8%

0–110.2%

0–24.9%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.4%

1–013.8%

1–113.5%

1–26.1%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.5%

2–08.8%

2–18.2%

2–23.8%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–03.7%

3–13.4%

3–21.6%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-114%
3.0-012%
4.0-110%
5.2-09%

Expected goals

1,24–0,92

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

411%

Under 2,563%

@1.67EV+2%

Over 2,537%

@2.21

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Avispa Fukuoka or draw (1X)73%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Avispa Fukuoka or draw (1X)73%
Under 2.5 goals63%
Masato Shigemi to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Masato Shigemi to score24%
Taishi Semba to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mito Hollyhock29% probability@3.85PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
Under 2.563% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
2 · Mito Hollyhock29% probability@3.65BetsafeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Avispa Fukuoka	X	2 · Mito Hollyhock
Betsafe	2.02	3.15	EV+ 5% 3.65
Betsson	2.02	3.15	EV+ 5% 3.65
Nordicbet	2.02	3.15	EV+ 5% 3.65
Pinnacle	2.02	EV+ 5% 3.33	EV+ 11% 3.85

Odds updated 2 Sept, 16:16

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avispa Fukuoka

Mito Hollyhock

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Avispa Fukuoka (6–6)

Mito Hollyhock (6–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Mito Hollyhock

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Mito Hollyhock

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avispa Fukuoka	Mito Hollyhock
Points	3	5
xPoints	6.2	6
xG per match	1.2	1.5
xGA per match	0.91	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.29

Playing style	Avispa Fukuoka	Mito Hollyhock
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.49	0.29
xT per match	0.9	0.85
xTA per match	0.59	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	32	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	9	16
Pass completion %	0.68	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.75
Passes per match	279	325
Passes against per match	375	520
Switches of play per match	16.8	23.3
Long balls per match	28	33

Set pieces	Avispa Fukuoka	Mito Hollyhock
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.1
Corners per match	5.3	6.1
Corners against per match	1.5	3.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.54

Other	Avispa Fukuoka	Mito Hollyhock
Throw-in control	0.8	0.66

The goalkeepers	Takumi Nagaishi (Avispa Fukuoka)	Konosuke Nishikawa (Mito Hollyhock)
Saves	7	14
Save %	58%	74%
xG prevented	32%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock according to our model?

The model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avispa Fukuoka 40%, draw 31%, Mito Hollyhock 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.