Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

J1 League19 September 2026Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka26°4,2 mm13 km/h

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Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

Sanfrecce HiroshimaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (58%)

1 · Avispa Fukuoka 19%X 23%58% Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 2

19%

23%

58%

Analysis: Avispa Fukuoka – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sanfrecce Hiroshima's high press and possession style have been a thorn in Avispa Fukuoka's side, as seen in their six encounters since 2023, with the visitors winning five and drawing one. This dominance is underlined by a model probability giving Sanfrecce a commanding 58% chance of victory. Their aggressive approach is likely to keep Fukuoka on the back foot, as the visitors look to exploit any defensive lapses with precision.

Avispa Fukuoka's balanced and physical approach has not been enough to counter Hiroshima's strategic press, which has consistently disrupted their rhythm. The hosts have managed only four points compared to Sanfrecce's eleven in the league, further showcasing the gap in current form. With expected goals (xG) figures at 1.02 for Fukuoka and 1.97 for Sanfrecce, the visitors are anticipated to create significantly more scoring opportunities.

The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 0-2 each at 10% reflect both Sanfrecce’s offensive prowess and Fukuoka’s potential to at least find the net once. However, with an over 2.5 goals probability at 58% and both teams to score at 55%, the smart money could be on a more open contest than the historical record suggests. A slight rain, expected at 2.4 mm, may dampen the tempo but should not heavily influence the goal-scoring potential, which is already factored into the model.

Given the statistical edges in both offensive and defensive metrics, Sanfrecce Hiroshima looks poised to continue their strong run against Fukuoka. Expect a 1-2 outcome favoring the visitors, aligning with both their strategy and statistical superiority.

Avispa Fukuoka

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #13xP/match #5Points #16

Key players

Shosei UsuiFxG 0.36 · xT 0.03
Yu HashimotoRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
Werik Silva PintoFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Form WDDWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #5

Key players

Akito SuzukiFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
Sébastien Romain Teddy HallerFxG 0.53 · xT 0.08
Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.41

Match prediction: Avispa Fukuoka – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Predicted score matrix

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

Avispa Fukuoka →

0–05.3%

0–19.6%

0–29.7%

0–36.4%

0–4+5.0%

1–04.8%

1–110.4%

1–210.0%

1–36.5%

1–4+5.1%

2–02.6%

2–15.2%

2–25.1%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.6%

3–00.9%

3–11.8%

3–21.7%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-210%
4.0-110%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,02–1,97

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win58%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win58%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Akito Suzuki to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Akito Suzuki to score37%
Tomoya Miki to be booked19%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Avispa Fukuoka 0Draw 1Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5

Goals: 4–10 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Sanfrecce Hiroshima dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avispa Fukuoka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Avispa Fukuoka (9–10)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (13–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avispa Fukuoka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Points	4	11
xPoints	9.9	12
xG per match	1.4	2.3
xGA per match	1	0.69
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.39
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.1

Playing style	Avispa Fukuoka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.54	0.69
xT per match	1	1.7
xTA per match	0.71	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	30	29
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.25
Entries into the box per match	14	20
Entries into the box against	9	9
Pass completion %	0.68	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.78
Passes per match	271	469
Passes against per match	379	317
Switches of play per match	17.6	37.2
Long balls per match	29	42

Set pieces	Avispa Fukuoka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.17
Corners per match	5.1	5.7
Corners against per match	1.5	2
xG per corner	0.01	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.67

Other	Avispa Fukuoka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Throw-in control	0.8	0.72

The goalkeepers	Takumi Nagaishi (Avispa Fukuoka)	Issei Ouchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
Saves	7	15
Save %	58%	79%
xG prevented	32%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Avispa Fukuoka

Fixtures, form & tips

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima according to our model?

The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avispa Fukuoka 19%, draw 23%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.