Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa Reds: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

J1 League2 September 2026Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka29°0,9 mm8 km/h

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Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

Urawa RedsLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Avispa Fukuoka (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.23 (+7 %)

1 · Avispa Fukuoka 36%X 33%31% Urawa Reds · 2

36%

33%

31%

Analysis: Avispa Fukuoka – Urawa Reds

Oscar Nilsson · 28 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

In the context of this matchup, the clearest signal comes from the model probabilities, which favor Avispa Fukuoka at 36% over Urawa Reds at 31%. The hosts have a small advantage, backed by the model's leaning and their recent form edge. Fukuoka's balanced and physical style could leverage the Reds' low defense, especially as the visitors have dropped their last three games. Despite Urawa's ability to generate more xG per match at 1.5, their xGA of 2.1 makes them vulnerable against Fukuoka's home presence.

The tight expected goals (Avispa Fukuoka at 1.15, Urawa Reds at 1.12) suggest a close contest, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 or 1-0. The over 2.5 goals odds at 40% further underline the likelihood of a low-scoring affair, which is consistent with the expected rain that typically suppresses goal numbers. The 14% chance of a 1-1 draw highlights caution in expecting a goal rush, though this sits somewhat at odds with Urawa Reds' low-defence, direct style.

Value hunters, take note: the tangible edge for Avispa Fukuoka is supported by the model's lean toward a home win. The evidence points to a modest 1-0 victory for Fukuoka, with the under 2.5 goals as a sensible lean.

Avispa Fukuoka

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #12

Key players

Werik Silva PintoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
Kokoro MaedaCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03

Urawa Reds

Form WWLLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #19xT #2xP/match #15Points #19

Key players

Ryoma WatanabeFxG 0.54 · xT 0.31
Takuro KanekoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.46
Matheus SavioLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Avispa Fukuoka – Urawa Reds

Predicted score matrix

Urawa Reds →

Avispa Fukuoka →

0–010.7%

0–111.2%

0–26.4%

0–32.4%

0–4+0.9%

1–011.5%

1–113.7%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–06.9%

2–17.7%

2–24.3%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.6%

3–12.9%

3–21.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-111%
4.0-011%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,15–1,12

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.60

Over 2,540%

@2.34

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Avispa Fukuoka or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Avispa Fukuoka or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Masato Shigemi to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Masato Shigemi to score24%
Keiya Shiihashi to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw33% probability@3.23PinnacleEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Avispa Fukuoka	X	2 · Urawa Reds
Betsafe	2.35	2.95	3.05
Betsson	2.35	2.95	3.05
Nordicbet	2.35	2.95	3.05
Pinnacle	2.46	EV+ 7% 3.23	2.97

Odds updated 31 Aug, 12:28

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Urawa Reds win since 29 August — the odds have shortened from 3.38 to 2.97 (−12%).

1+9 %

43 %38 %

2.26 → 2.46

X+2 %

32 %27 %

3.17 → 3.23

2-12 %

33 %28 %

3.38 → 2.97

Over 2,5-2 %

43 %38 %

2.38 → 2.34

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Avispa Fukuoka 2Draw 1Urawa Reds 1

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Urawa Reds have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avispa Fukuoka

Urawa Reds

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Avispa Fukuoka (5–4)

Urawa Reds (5–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Urawa Reds

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Urawa Reds

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avispa Fukuoka	Urawa Reds
Points	3	0
xPoints	5.1	3.2
xG per match	1.1	1.5
xGA per match	0.86	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.22

Playing style	Avispa Fukuoka	Urawa Reds
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.43	0.5
xT per match	0.75	1.6
xTA per match	0.66	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	31	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	10	19
Pass completion %	0.67	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.7
Passes per match	255	329
Passes against per match	413	315
Switches of play per match	16.4	20
Long balls per match	29	27

Set pieces	Avispa Fukuoka	Urawa Reds
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.03
Corners per match	5	3
Corners against per match	1.7	5.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.65

Other	Avispa Fukuoka	Urawa Reds
Throw-in control	0.8	0.77

The goalkeepers	Takumi Nagaishi (Avispa Fukuoka)	Shusaku Nishikawa (Urawa Reds)
Saves	6	14
Save %	67%	56%
xG prevented	36%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa Reds according to our model?

The model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avispa Fukuoka 36%, draw 33%, Urawa Reds 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.