Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

J1 League2 September 2026Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka28°0,4 mm7 km/h

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Cerezo OsakaCounter-attacks & crosses

Kashiwa ReysolBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Kashiwa Reysol (40%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.53 (+1 %)

1 · Cerezo Osaka 31%X 29%40% Kashiwa Reysol · 2

31%

29%

40%

Analysis: Cerezo Osaka – Kashiwa Reysol

Marcus Johansson · 28 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Kashiwa Reysol's nine-match winning streak casts a long shadow over their clash with Cerezo Osaka, setting up a fascinating tactical battle. The hosts tend to play on the counter and utilize crosses, a style that could find it difficult to break down the visitors' balanced and physical approach. Despite the rain potentially dampening attacking flair, it’s unlikely to drastically alter the model's slight edge towards Kashiwa Reysol.

The numbers are compelling. The visitors boast superior expected goals (xG) at 1.4 per match compared to Osaka’s 0.6, and their defensive solidity shines through with an expected goals against (xGA) of 0.91, which sharply contrasts with the hosts' 1.4. This defensive edge is significant given Kashiwa's ability to find the net in their last ten league outings. Cerezo, despite their counter-attacking style, will need to lift their game to disrupt this pattern and make the most of their opportunities.

Historically, the head-to-head record since 2023 is balanced, with Cerezo holding one win against Kashiwa's one, alongside four draws. However, this small sample size is overshadowed by the visitors' current form and statistical dominance. With a model probability leaning towards Kashiwa Reysol at 40% compared to Cerezo’s 31%, and a most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13%, the visitors appear to hold the upper hand.

For the sharpest angle, the ongoing winning run and superior metrics of Kashiwa Reysol suggest the visitors hold the value edge for an away win. While both teams are likely to score, the edge is clearly with the visitors to potentially grind out a narrow 0-1 victory, although a draw remains possible given the model's probabilities. The over 2.5 goals line, poised at 51%, looks finely balanced but may just tip under given the weather and tactical setups.

Cerezo Osaka

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #19xGA #15xT #20xP/match #19Points #6

Key players

Shunta TanakaCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Jackson Alexander IrvineCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
Rikito InoueCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

Kashiwa Reysol

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #14xP/match #6Points #3

Key players

Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Tojiro KuboRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.03
Yoshio KoizumiRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Cerezo Osaka – Kashiwa Reysol

Predicted score matrix

Kashiwa Reysol →

Cerezo Osaka →

0–07.0%

0–18.6%

0–26.0%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.7%

1–112.6%

1–28.2%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.2%

2–18.4%

2–25.6%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.8%

3–13.8%

3–22.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,37–1,34

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.00

Over 2,551%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Tojiro Kubo to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Thiago Eduardo de Andrade to score24%
Hinata Kida to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw29% probability@3.53PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cerezo Osaka	X	2 · Kashiwa Reysol
Betsafe	3.00	3.30	2.18
Betsson	3.00	3.30	2.18
Nordicbet	3.00	3.30	2.18
Pinnacle	3.18	EV+ 1% 3.53	2.19

Odds updated 31 Aug, 12:28

Odds movement

1+7 %

33 %28 %

2.96 → 3.18

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.49 → 3.53

2-6 %

45 %40 %

2.33 → 2.19

Over 2,50 %

55 %50 %

1.84 → 1.83

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Cerezo Osaka 1Draw 4Kashiwa Reysol 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 1,7)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Kashiwa Reysol come into this round on 9 straight wins.
Kashiwa Reysol have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cerezo Osaka

Kashiwa Reysol

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cerezo Osaka (3–4)

Kashiwa Reysol (9–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cerezo Osaka

Kashiwa Reysol

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cerezo Osaka

Kashiwa Reysol

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cerezo Osaka	Kashiwa Reysol
Points	6	9
xPoints	2.5	5.1
xG per match	0.6	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	0.91
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.08

Playing style	Cerezo Osaka	Kashiwa Reysol
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.47	0.75
xT per match	0.61	0.92
xTA per match	1.2	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	22	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.18
Entries into the box per match	7	13
Entries into the box against	14	7
Pass completion %	0.75	0.87
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.79
Passes per match	382	653
Passes against per match	248	366
Switches of play per match	23.2	41.7
Long balls per match	31	35

Set pieces	Cerezo Osaka	Kashiwa Reysol
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	4.6	4.7
Corners against per match	5.9	3.4
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.86
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.89

Other	Cerezo Osaka	Kashiwa Reysol
Throw-in control	0.8	0.74

The goalkeepers	Kosuke Nakamura (Cerezo Osaka)	Ryosuke Kojima (Kashiwa Reysol)
Saves	8	7
Save %	67%	64%
xG prevented	52%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol according to our model?

The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cerezo Osaka 31%, draw 29%, Kashiwa Reysol 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.