Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

J1 League6 September 202623°18,5 mm9 km/h

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Fagiano OkayamaPossession & high press

3–2

Sanfrecce HiroshimaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (48%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.80 (+18 %)

1 · Fagiano Okayama 22%X 29%48% Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 2

22%

29%

48%

Analysis: Fagiano Okayama – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Erik Lindberg · 5 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A clear pattern emerges when examining the clash between Fagiano Okayama and Sanfrecce Hiroshima: the visitors are favored with a 48% probability of winning, a significant edge over the hosts' 22%. With Hiroshima's unbeaten streak stretching to 8 league matches, it's no surprise the numbers align in their favor. Despite the small head-to-head sample showing one win each, the broader picture of form and expected goals firmly tilts toward Hiroshima.

The most likely scoreline models suggest a tight affair: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (12%) are the front-runners. With an average goal expectation of 1.38 for Hiroshima against Okayama's 1.00, offensive prowess leans slightly towards the visitors. Yet, the defensive metrics show both teams excel in keeping things tight at the back, with Okayama's xGA at 0.71 and Hiroshima's at an impressive 0.51.

Rain might dampen the prospect of a high-scoring contest, and the model is already reflective of this with just a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score hangs at a balanced 48%, further illustrating the likelihood of a low-goal encounter. Given both teams employ possession and high press strategies, the midfield battle could be fierce, potentially stifling fluid attacking play.

For those seeking a sharp angle, the under 1.5 goals market is where value lurks. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet each offer odds of 3.8, with the model identifying an 18% edge at a 31% probability. This suggests significant value, especially in a matchup projected to be cagey. If you're inclined to back a low-scoring tussle, this could very well be the bet that pays the bills.

Fagiano Okayama

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #2xT #5xP/match #5Points #10

Key players

Leonardo Andriel dos SantosFxG 0.28 · xT -0.02
Lucas Marcos MeirelesFxG 0.38 · xT -0.01
Sang Ho NaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.27

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Form WWDDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #4

Key players

Mutsuki KatoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
Akito SuzukiFxG 0.52 · xT 0.08
Sébastien Romain Teddy HallerFxG 0.50 · xT 0.07

Final score

3 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Fagiano Okayama 22% · Draw 29% · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 48%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Fagiano OkayamaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,04fair 20,51-46 %

Hit

Matchresultat - Sanfrecce HiroshimaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,66fair 10,80-48 %

Miss

Match prediction: Fagiano Okayama – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Predicted score matrix

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

Fagiano Okayama →

0–09.6%

0–112.4%

0–28.9%

0–34.1%

0–4+1.9%

1–08.9%

1–113.1%

1–28.8%

1–34.1%

1–4+1.9%

2–04.6%

2–16.4%

2–24.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.5%

3–12.1%

3–21.5%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.0-29%
5.1-09%

Expected goals

1,00–1,38

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.98EV+14%

Over 2,542%

@1.97

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win48%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win48%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Akito Suzuki to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Akito Suzuki to score30%
Hiroshi Omori to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.531% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
Under 1.531% probability@3.80BetssonEV+18%reference odds
Under 1.531% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fagiano Okayama	X	2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Betsafe	3.70	3.40	1.88
Betsson	3.70	3.40	1.88
Nordicbet	3.70	3.40	1.88
Pinnacle	4.04	EV+ 5% 3.61	1.94

Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 2.05 to 1.90 (−7%).

1+13 %

30 %20 %

3.56 → 4.04

X-1 %

31 %21 %

3.65 → 3.61

2-3 %

54 %44 %

2.00 → 1.94

Over 2,5+11 %

57 %47 %

1.77 → 1.97

Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Fagiano Okayama 1Draw 0Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fagiano Okayama

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fagiano Okayama (5–5)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (11–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fagiano Okayama

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fagiano Okayama

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fagiano Okayama	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Points	7	11
xPoints	8.3	11.3
xG per match	1.1	2.4
xGA per match	0.71	0.51
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.09

Playing style	Fagiano Okayama	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.66	0.66
xT per match	1.3	1.7
xTA per match	0.53	0.7
Won balls, offensive half	30	30
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.22
Entries into the box per match	17	20
Entries into the box against	8	9
Pass completion %	0.7	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.78
Passes per match	302	420
Passes against per match	331	351
Switches of play per match	16.8	34.8
Long balls per match	26	41

Set pieces	Fagiano Okayama	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.21
Corners per match	6.5	5.2
Corners against per match	3.4	2
xG per corner	0.01	0.09
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.6

Other	Fagiano Okayama	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Throw-in control	0.66	0.7

The goalkeepers	Shun Matsuda (Fagiano Okayama)	Issei Ouchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
Saves	2	13
Save %	50%	93%
xG prevented	41%	91%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fagiano Okayama

Fixtures, form & tips

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima according to our model?

The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fagiano Okayama 22%, draw 29%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.