FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

J1 League19 September 2026Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo24°3,6 mm8 km/h

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FC TokyoBalanced & physical

Nagoya GrampusPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · FC Tokyo (56%)

1 · FC Tokyo 56%X 24%20% Nagoya Grampus · 2

56%

24%

20%

Analysis: FC Tokyo – Nagoya Grampus

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: FC Tokyo's grip on this matchup is undeniable, with three victories in their last six encounters against Nagoya Grampus. While the sample size remains small, it aligns with Tokyo's current form — unbeaten in their last five league matches. The hosts' balance of physicality and defensive discipline contrasts sharply with Nagoya's possession-based approach, suggesting a tactical battle in midfield.

The numbers present a clear advantage for Tokyo. They're not just collecting points but doing so with underlying solidity. Their xG per match stands at 1.7, notably higher than Nagoya's 1.2, while defensively, they concede fewer quality opportunities, with an xGA of 1.2 compared to the visitors' 1.6. These statistics reflect more than just table position; they reveal Tokyo's ability to create and suppress chances effectively.

Expected goals tell an even sharper story: Tokyo's predicted 1.92 versus Nagoya's mere 1.00 casts doubt on the visitors' ability to challenge the hosts' unbeaten streak. Factor in the expected rain, and we might see a cautious first half as both sides adapt to the slick conditions. Yet, the model still favors over 2.5 goals at 56%, suggesting that despite the weather, openings will emerge, especially as legs tire and defenses stretch.

In terms of betting angles, Tokyo's win probability at 56% aligns neatly with the odds. However, the most lucrative angle might lie in the over 2.5 goals market. Despite the anticipated rain, the over 2.5 goals market may offer potential value. The data points to a game where Tokyo's attacking prowess should eventually shine through, propelling them to a likely 2-1 victory.

FC Tokyo

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #5xP/match #6Points #6

Key players

Motoki NagakuraFxG 0.37 · xT 0.10
Marcelo Ryan Silvestre dos SantosFxG 0.57 · xT 0.15
Takahiro KoCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.15

Nagoya Grampus

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #8xP/match #18Points #14

Key players

Katsuhiro NakayamaLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
Tomoki TakamineCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
Haruya FujiiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: FC Tokyo – Nagoya Grampus

Predicted score matrix

Nagoya Grampus →

FC Tokyo →

0–05.6%

0–15.1%

0–22.7%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.0%

1–110.6%

1–25.2%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.9%

2–19.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.3%

3–16.4%

3–23.2%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.7%

4+–14.8%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,92–1,00

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

FC Tokyo to win56%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

FC Tokyo to win56%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Motoki Nagakura to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Motoki Nagakura to score25%
Tomoki Takamine to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

FC Tokyo 3Draw 2Nagoya Grampus 1

Goals: 11–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Tokyo dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
FC Tokyo are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Tokyo

Nagoya Grampus

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Tokyo (11–8)

Nagoya Grampus (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Tokyo

Nagoya Grampus

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Tokyo

Nagoya Grampus

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Tokyo	Nagoya Grampus
Points	11	6
xPoints	9.3	5.7
xG per match	1.7	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.6	0.27

Playing style	FC Tokyo	Nagoya Grampus
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.54	0.58
xT per match	1.2	1.1
xTA per match	0.95	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.33
Entries into the box per match	19	16
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.75
Passes per match	408	423
Passes against per match	331	292
Switches of play per match	24.6	35
Long balls per match	28	41

Set pieces	FC Tokyo	Nagoya Grampus
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	3.8	5.6
Corners against per match	4.7	4.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.17	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.73

Other	FC Tokyo	Nagoya Grampus
Throw-in control	0.73	0.76

The goalkeepers	Seung-Gyu Kim (FC Tokyo)	Alexandre Pisano (Nagoya Grampus)
Saves	10	19
Save %	56%	68%
xG prevented	21%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

FC Tokyo

Fixtures, form & tips

Nagoya Grampus

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus according to our model?

The model gives FC Tokyo a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Tokyo 56%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.