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    JEF United ChibaJEF United ChibaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano OkayamaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Fagiano Okayama (48%)Best value by the model: 1 · JEF United Chiba @ 3.92 (+7 %)

    JEF United Chiba – Fagiano Okayama · J1 League

    1 · JEF United Chiba 27%X 25%48% Fagiano Okayama · 2

    Analysis: JEF United Chiba – Fagiano Okayama

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The numbers are telling. Okayama not only holds a 48% probability of winning but also a decisive advantage in expected goals, registering 1.43 to Chiba's 1.09. Their defensive solidity, marked by an xGA of just 0.28 per match, starkly contrasts with Chiba's porous 2.7. This imbalance suggests that Okayama can control both ends of the pitch, further supported by their superior xPoints of 6.1 against Chiba's 1.3. While the hosts will hope to spring surprise counter-attacks, their recent lack of cutting edge, illustrated by a meager xG of 0.48, doesn't inspire confidence.

    While the model suggests 0-1 and 1-2 as plausible outcomes, the most likely scoreline remains 1-1 at 13%, reflecting the potential for Chiba to snatch a goal amid Okayama's pressure. However, the chance of over 2.5 goals occurring is just 46%, slightly below average, implying a tighter affair, with the expected rainfall potentially dampening the attacking flow further.

    For those seeking value, backing Okayama to win aligns with both tactical expectations and the numbers, given their form and statistical edge.

    JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba
    Form LLL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #20xT #19xP/match #20Points #20
    Key players
    • Taishi TaguchiCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
    • Koji ToriumiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • Takashi KawanoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
    Form LWLWD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #3xP/match #2Points #7
    Key players
    • Lucas Marcos MeirelesFxG 0.40 · xT 0.01
    • Sang Ho NaFxG 0.07 · xT 0.29
    • Hiroshi OmoriCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: JEF United Chiba – Fagiano Okayama

    Predicted score matrix

    Fagiano Okayama →
    JEF United Chiba →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–111.2%
    0–28.2%
    0–33.9%
    0–4+1.9%
    1
    1–08.4%
    1–112.9%
    1–29.0%
    1–34.3%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–04.8%
    2–16.8%
    2–24.9%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–12.5%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-08%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,09–1,43
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.96EV+6%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.86

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Fagiano Okayama to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Fagiano Okayama to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Takaya Kimura to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Takaya Kimura to score21%
    • Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · JEF United Chiba27% probability@3.92PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
    • Under 2.554% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · JEF United Chiba27% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · JEF United ChibaX2 · Fagiano Okayama
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    3.80    		3.401.85
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    3.80    		3.401.85
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    3.80    		3.401.85
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 7%
    3.92    		3.721.88

    Odds updated 31 Aug, 12:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 29 August — the odds have shortened from 2.17 to 1.86 (−14%).

    1-1 %
    29 %19 %

    3.94 → 3.92

    X+11 %
    32 %22 %

    3.34 → 3.72

    2-6 %
    54 %44 %

    1.99 → 1.88

    Over 2,5-14 %
    53 %43 %

    2.17 → 1.86

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • JEF United Chiba have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    JEF United Chiba
    Fagiano Okayama
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    JEF United Chiba (0–9)
    Fagiano Okayama (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    JEF United Chiba
    Daniel Peter Olatunji Hall: 134 passningar, xT -0.01HallKoji Toriumi: 126 passningar, xT 0.17ToriumiTakashi Kawano: 90 passningar, xT 0.5KawanoJose Aurelio Suarez: 81 passningar, xT 0.12SuarezTaishi Taguchi: 76 passningar, xT 0.19TaguchiTakahiro Iida: 74 passningar, xT 0.23IidaMatheus Salgueiro Pains: 72 passningar, xT 0.29PainsTakayuki Mae: 60 passningar, xT -0.03MaeTakumi Tsukui: 52 passningar, xT 0.08TsukuiRikuto Ishio: 31 passningar, xT 0.03IshioDaichi Ishikawa: 29 passningar, xT 0.02Ishikawa
    Fagiano Okayama
    Oberdan Alionço de Lima: 147 passningar, xT 0.2LimaHiroshi Omori: 112 passningar, xT 0.38OmoriYoshitake Suzuki: 100 passningar, xT 0.23SuzukiYugo Tatsuta: 94 passningar, xT 0.24TatsutaEiji Miyamoto: 88 passningar, xT 0.4MiyamotoAtaru Esaka: 85 passningar, xT 0.28EsakaKosuke Shirai: 83 passningar, xT 0.68ShiraiTowa Yamane: 70 passningar, xT 0.25YamaneSang Ho Na: 58 passningar, xT 0.31NaLennart Franklin Moser: 23 passningar, xT 0.06MoserNoah Kenshin Browne: 20 passningar, xT 0.02Browne
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    JEF United Chiba
    Daniel Peter Olatunji Hall: 134 passningar, xT -0.01HallKoji Toriumi: 126 passningar, xT 0.17ToriumiTakashi Kawano: 90 passningar, xT 0.5KawanoJose Aurelio Suarez: 81 passningar, xT 0.12SuarezTaishi Taguchi: 76 passningar, xT 0.19TaguchiTakahiro Iida: 74 passningar, xT 0.23IidaMatheus Salgueiro Pains: 72 passningar, xT 0.29PainsTakayuki Mae: 60 passningar, xT -0.03MaeTakumi Tsukui: 52 passningar, xT 0.08TsukuiRikuto Ishio: 31 passningar, xT 0.03IshioDaichi Ishikawa: 29 passningar, xT 0.02Ishikawa
    Fagiano Okayama
    Oberdan Alionço de Lima: 147 passningar, xT 0.2LimaHiroshi Omori: 112 passningar, xT 0.38OmoriYoshitake Suzuki: 100 passningar, xT 0.23SuzukiYugo Tatsuta: 94 passningar, xT 0.24TatsutaEiji Miyamoto: 88 passningar, xT 0.4MiyamotoAtaru Esaka: 85 passningar, xT 0.28EsakaKosuke Shirai: 83 passningar, xT 0.68ShiraiTowa Yamane: 70 passningar, xT 0.25YamaneSang Ho Na: 58 passningar, xT 0.31NaLennart Franklin Moser: 23 passningar, xT 0.06MoserNoah Kenshin Browne: 20 passningar, xT 0.02Browne

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJEF United ChibaFagiano Okayama
    Points04
    xPoints1.36.1
    xG per match0.481.3
    xGA per match2.70.28
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.450.02
    Playing styleJEF United ChibaFagiano Okayama
    Build-up efficiency0.340.32
    Field tilt0.210.72
    xT per match0.641.5
    xTA per match1.60.47
    Won balls, offensive half1832
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.230.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.29
    Entries into the box per match619
    Entries into the box against216
    Pass completion %0.750.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.69
    Passes per match333321
    Passes against per match435327
    Switches of play per match16.921.8
    Long balls per match2128
    Set piecesJEF United ChibaFagiano Okayama
    xG from free kicks0.060.03
    Corners per match16.3
    Corners against per match5.52.3
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.070.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.37
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.57
    OtherJEF United ChibaFagiano Okayama
    Throw-in control0.770.75
    The goalkeepersJose Aurelio Suarez (JEF United Chiba)Shun Matsuda (Fagiano Okayama)
    Saves92
    Save %50%50%
    xG prevented48%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama according to our model?

    The model gives Fagiano Okayama a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: JEF United Chiba 27%, draw 25%, Fagiano Okayama 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.