J1 LeagueKashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima24°31,7 mm24 km/h

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    Kashima AntlersKashima AntlersBalanced & physical
    0–1
    Urawa RedsUrawa RedsLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Kashima Antlers (54%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.15 (+14 %)

    Kashima Antlers – Urawa Reds · J1 League

    1 · Kashima Antlers 54%X 25%21% Urawa Reds · 2

    Analysis: Kashima Antlers – Urawa Reds

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Kashima Antlers have had the upper hand against Urawa Reds in recent meetings, going unbeaten in their last four encounters since 2023, though it's worth noting that three of these matches ended in draws. This head-to-head sample is small and weighs less than the teams' current form and expected goals. The Antlers have shown consistent prowess in front of goal, having scored in nine consecutive league games, which speaks to their balanced yet physical playing style.

    In terms of current form, the home side holds the advantage with 12 points compared to Urawa's 6 this season. However, the underlying xPoints suggest a closer battle, with the Reds slightly edging the Antlers. The visitors tend to rely on a more direct approach but have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. This stands in contrast to Kashima's more robust defense, which has conceded just 1.1 goals per match on average.

    Given the expected goals, Kashima Antlers seem the likelier side to find the back of the net, with their xG at 1.60 compared to Urawa's 0.96. The model favors a 1-1 or 1-0 scoreline, each at 12%, with a slight edge toward a 2-0 victory for the hosts at 10%. The rain in the forecast could suppress scoring opportunities, already factored into the model's under 2.5 goals probability of 53%.

    The sharpest betting angle lies with the under 2.5 goals market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 1.95, while the model rates this outcome at 53%, presenting a valuable edge of 3%. With the weather and defensive metrics in mind, this angle offers the most promising return.

    Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers
    Form WWWWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #4xP/match #12Points #2
    Key players
    • Leo CearaFxG 0.80 · xT 0.22
    • Rikuto HiroseRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.31
    • Ryoya OgawaLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
    Urawa RedsUrawa Reds
    Form LLLWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #18xT #2xP/match #11Points #12
    Key players
    • Ryoma WatanabeFxG 0.54 · xT 0.25
    • Takuro KanekoRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.38
    • Matheus SavioCAMxG 0.42 · xT 0.14
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Kashima Antlers 54% · Draw 25% · Urawa Reds 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Kashima AntlersBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,49fair 8,19-33 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Urawa Red DiamondsBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,98fair 22,16-41 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Kashima Antlers – Urawa Reds

    Predicted score matrix

    Urawa Reds →
    Kashima Antlers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.1%
    0–17.1%
    0–23.6%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.0%
    1–112.2%
    1–25.7%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.9%
    2–19.5%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.3%
    3–15.1%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.0%
    4+–12.9%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,60–0,96
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @2.15EV+3%
    Over 2,547%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Kashima Antlers to win54%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.73

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Kashima Antlers to win54%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • Yuma Suzuki to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • Yuma Suzuki to score38%
    • Yuta Miyamoto to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.553% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
    • Under 2.553% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • Under 2.553% probability@1.95BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Kashima AntlersX2 · Urawa Reds
    Betsafe1.753.404.20
    Betsson1.753.404.20
    Nordicbet1.753.404.20
    Pinnacle1.83
    EV+ 0%
    3.97    		4.17

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    55 %50 %

    1.75 → 1.83

    X+3 %
    27 %22 %

    3.84 → 3.97

    2-6 %
    25 %20 %

    4.42 → 4.17

    Over 2,5-3 %
    56 %51 %

    1.81 → 1.75

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Kashima Antlers 1Draw 3Urawa Reds 0
    Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Kashima Antlers have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    • Kashima Antlers win 58% of their home matches all-time (57 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kashima Antlers
    Urawa Reds
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kashima Antlers (13–10)
    Urawa Reds (11–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kashima Antlers
    Ikuma Sekigawa: 304 passningar, xT 0.38SekigawaRikuto Hirose: 282 passningar, xT 1.42HiroseMatheus Bueno: 277 passningar, xT 0.27BuenoRyoya Ogawa: 267 passningar, xT 0.58OgawaGaku Shibasaki: 245 passningar, xT 0.33ShibasakiNaomichi Ueda: 244 passningar, xT 0.32UedaKento Misao: 200 passningar, xT 0.06MisaoYuma Suzuki: 171 passningar, xT -0.01SuzukiTomoki Hayakawa: 131 passningar, xT 0.25HayakawaYuta Matsumura: 118 passningar, xT 0.93MatsumuraLeo Ceara: 107 passningar, xT 0.56Ceara
    Urawa Reds
    Yuta Miyamoto: 285 passningar, xT 0.59MiyamotoDanilo Boza: 192 passningar, xT 0.12BozaKaito Yasui: 136 passningar, xT 0.25YasuiYoichi Naganuma: 123 passningar, xT 0.47NaganumaRyoma Watanabe: 105 passningar, xT 0.71WatanabeMatheus Savio: 102 passningar, xT 0.31SavioTakuro Kaneko: 100 passningar, xT 1.85KanekoShusaku Nishikawa: 87 passningar, xT 0.33NishikawaTatsuki Seko: 86 passningar, xT 0.15SekoKotaro Hayashi: 81 passningar, xT 0.17HayashiHayate Ueki: 78 passningar, xT 0.07Ueki
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kashima Antlers
    Ikuma Sekigawa: 304 passningar, xT 0.38SekigawaRikuto Hirose: 282 passningar, xT 1.42HiroseMatheus Bueno: 277 passningar, xT 0.27BuenoRyoya Ogawa: 267 passningar, xT 0.58OgawaGaku Shibasaki: 245 passningar, xT 0.33ShibasakiNaomichi Ueda: 244 passningar, xT 0.32UedaKento Misao: 200 passningar, xT 0.06MisaoYuma Suzuki: 171 passningar, xT -0.01SuzukiTomoki Hayakawa: 131 passningar, xT 0.25HayakawaYuta Matsumura: 118 passningar, xT 0.93MatsumuraLeo Ceara: 107 passningar, xT 0.56Ceara
    Urawa Reds
    Yuta Miyamoto: 285 passningar, xT 0.59MiyamotoDanilo Boza: 192 passningar, xT 0.12BozaKaito Yasui: 136 passningar, xT 0.25YasuiYoichi Naganuma: 123 passningar, xT 0.47NaganumaRyoma Watanabe: 105 passningar, xT 0.71WatanabeMatheus Savio: 102 passningar, xT 0.31SavioTakuro Kaneko: 100 passningar, xT 1.85KanekoShusaku Nishikawa: 87 passningar, xT 0.33NishikawaTatsuki Seko: 86 passningar, xT 0.15SekoKotaro Hayashi: 81 passningar, xT 0.17HayashiHayate Ueki: 78 passningar, xT 0.07Ueki

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKashima AntlersUrawa Reds
    Points126
    xPoints6.66.7
    xG per match1.61.8
    xGA per match1.11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.16
    Playing styleKashima AntlersUrawa Reds
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.730.51
    xT per match1.41.5
    xTA per match0.571.4
    Won balls, offensive half2427
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.320.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.25
    Entries into the box per match1512
    Entries into the box against716
    Pass completion %0.80.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.69
    Passes per match529329
    Passes against per match277288
    Switches of play per match34.221
    Long balls per match3829
    Set piecesKashima AntlersUrawa Reds
    xG from free kicks0.070.02
    Corners per match4.32.8
    Corners against per match3.75
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.64
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.68
    OtherKashima AntlersUrawa Reds
    Throw-in control0.790.72
    The goalkeepersTomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers)Shusaku Nishikawa (Urawa Reds)
    Saves923
    Save %53%61%
    xG prevented21%58%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Kashima Antlers
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Urawa Reds
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Reds according to our model?

    The model gives Kashima Antlers a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashima Antlers 54%, draw 25%, Urawa Reds 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.