Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima Antlers: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

J1 League19 September 2026Uvance Todoroki Stadium, Kawasaki24°1,8 mm12 km/h

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Kawasaki FrontaleBalanced & physical

Kashima AntlersPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Kashima Antlers (46%)

1 · Kawasaki Frontale 30%X 24%46% Kashima Antlers · 2

30%

24%

46%

Analysis: Kawasaki Frontale – Kashima Antlers

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Six matches since the start of 2023 offer a split verdict between Kawasaki Frontale and Kashima Antlers, each claiming three wins without a draw. Yet, this small sample size should not overshadow the current form and analytical predictions. Despite the even head-to-head, the model leans toward the visitors, who boast a 46% chance of victory. With Kawasaki's balanced and physical play clashing against Kashima's possession-oriented strategy, the game promises tactical intrigue.

The expected goals (xG) metrics reveal Kawasaki generating slightly more opportunities per game, with 1.6 xG, compared to Kashima’s 1.5. However, the defensive figures tilt the scales towards the visitors, with the hosts conceding more on average (1.5 xGA to Kashima's 1.0). This defensive edge, combined with Kashima's higher real points tally (12 against Kawasaki's 9), suggests a subtle superiority favoring the Antlers.

Weather might play its part, with 31.4 mm of rain potentially dampening goal-scoring exploits, although the model has already factored this in. Despite the conditions, there's still a solid 61% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability for both teams finding the net. The nature of this high-scoring fixture, averaging 3.2 goals per encounter, further supports a prediction of goals.

The sharpest angle lies in recognizing Kashima Antlers' edge. Bet365 offers odds of 2.20 for a Kashima win, presenting value given the probabilities and recent trends. A 2-1 victory for the visitors aligns with both the model's insights and the tactical landscape, making Kashima Antlers the side to back in this vibrant clash.

Kawasaki Frontale

Form DDWLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #10xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Yasuto WakizakaCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.13
Yuki YamamotoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
Tatsuya ItoRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.16

Kashima Antlers

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #2xP/match #13Points #3

Key players

Leo CearaFxG 0.72 · xT 0.19
Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Ryoya OgawaLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Kawasaki Frontale – Kashima Antlers

Predicted score matrix

Kashima Antlers →

Kawasaki Frontale →

0–04.7%

0–17.3%

0–26.6%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.5%

1–05.8%

1–110.9%

1–29.2%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.4%

2–04.2%

2–17.4%

2–26.4%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.4%

3–02.0%

3–13.4%

3–23.0%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.0-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,40–1,74

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Kashima Antlers to win46%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Kashima Antlers to win46%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score43%
Kento Misao to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Kawasaki Frontale 3Draw 0Kashima Antlers 3

Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kawasaki Frontale

Kashima Antlers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kawasaki Frontale (12–9)

Kashima Antlers (13–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kawasaki Frontale

Kashima Antlers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kawasaki Frontale

Kashima Antlers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kawasaki Frontale	Kashima Antlers
Points	9	12
xPoints	8.8	7.7
xG per match	1.6	1.5
xGA per match	1.5	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.28

Playing style	Kawasaki Frontale	Kashima Antlers
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.59	0.71
xT per match	1	1.5
xTA per match	1.2	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	19	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	16	15
Entries into the box against	15	8
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.74
Passes per match	416	508
Passes against per match	354	270
Switches of play per match	19.7	33
Long balls per match	22	39

Set pieces	Kawasaki Frontale	Kashima Antlers
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.06
Corners per match	4.6	4.4
Corners against per match	3.8	4.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.43	0.59

Other	Kawasaki Frontale	Kashima Antlers
Throw-in control	0.68	0.77

The goalkeepers	Svend Arvid Stanislaw Brodersen (Kawasaki Frontale)	Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers)
Saves	27	12
Save %	75%	60%
xG prevented	41%	27%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kawasaki Frontale

Fixtures, form & tips

Kashima Antlers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima Antlers according to our model?

The model gives Kashima Antlers a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kawasaki Frontale 30%, draw 24%, Kashima Antlers 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.