Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

J1 League6 September 2026Uvance Todoroki Stadium, Kawasaki24°57,8 mm35 km/h

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Kawasaki FrontaleBalanced & physical

3–1

Shimizu S-PulseLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Kawasaki Frontale (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Shimizu S-Pulse @ 4.40 (+34 %)

1 · Kawasaki Frontale 44%X 25%31% Shimizu S-Pulse · 2

44%

25%

31%

Analysis: Kawasaki Frontale – Shimizu S-Pulse

Sofia Andersson · 5 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Shimizu S-Pulse offers a tempting edge in this clash, with three bookmakers—Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet—pricing an away win at 3.9. The model gives the visitors a 31% chance, translating to a 19% edge. Despite Kawasaki's slight model lean with a 44% win probability, certain metrics favor the visitors, even though recent head-to-head form favors Kawasaki (1W 1D 0L since 2023).

With both teams showing vulnerability in defense, the expected goals suggest a tight contest. Kawasaki's xGA of 1.5 per match against Shimizu's 1.2 indicates a defensive tilt towards the visitors. Although the Frontale holds a slender points advantage (6 vs. 4), the xPoints favor Shimizu (7.9 vs. 6.3), hinting at their potential to upset.

Weather conditions—23.6°C and heavy rain—might suppress scoring, already factored into the 54% over 2.5 goals probability. Yet, both teams to score remains at 57%, underscoring goal-scoring threats on both sides. Given the numbers, a 1-1 draw seems most likely. Still, the value lies in backing Shimizu at 3.9 odds to capitalize on Kawasaki's defensive frailties.

Kawasaki Frontale

Form DDDWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #11xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Yasuto WakizakaCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
Yuki YamamotoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Tatsuya ItoRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.18

Shimizu S-Pulse

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #8xP/match #7Points #16

Key players

Se-Hun OhFxG 0.48 · xT 0.13
Ryo GermainFxG 0.18 · xT 0.12
Koya KitagawaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.17

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Kawasaki Frontale 44% · Draw 25% · Shimizu S-Pulse 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Shimizu S-PulseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,09fair 11,03-9 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Kawasaki FrontaleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,98fair 8,25-40 %

Hit

Match prediction: Kawasaki Frontale – Shimizu S-Pulse

Predicted score matrix

Shimizu S-Pulse →

Kawasaki Frontale →

0–06.3%

0–17.4%

0–25.1%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.6%

1–112.1%

1–27.7%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.8%

2–18.9%

2–25.8%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.4%

3–14.5%

3–23.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,52–1,31

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.18EV+1%

Over 2,554%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kawasaki Frontale or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kawasaki Frontale or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Tatsuya Ito to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Tatsuya Ito to score40%
Yudai Shimamoto to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Shimizu S-Pulse31% probability@4.40PinnacleEV+34%reference odds
2 · Shimizu S-Pulse31% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
2 · Shimizu S-Pulse31% probability@3.90BetssonEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kawasaki Frontale	X	2 · Shimizu S-Pulse
Betsafe	1.82	3.45	EV+ 19% 3.90
Betsson	1.82	3.45	EV+ 19% 3.90
Nordicbet	1.82	3.45	EV+ 19% 3.90
Pinnacle	1.86	3.63	EV+ 34% 4.40

Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1+2 %

53 %48 %

1.83 → 1.86

X-3 %

28 %23 %

3.74 → 3.63

2+7 %

26 %21 %

4.10 → 4.40

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Kawasaki Frontale 1Draw 1Shimizu S-Pulse 0

Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kawasaki Frontale

Shimizu S-Pulse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kawasaki Frontale (9–8)

Shimizu S-Pulse (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kawasaki Frontale

Shimizu S-Pulse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kawasaki Frontale

Shimizu S-Pulse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kawasaki Frontale	Shimizu S-Pulse
Points	6	4
xPoints	6.3	7.9
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.18

Playing style	Kawasaki Frontale	Shimizu S-Pulse
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.53	0.34
xT per match	1	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	19	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.24
Entries into the box per match	16	12
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.65
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.62
Passes per match	415	227
Passes against per match	364	436
Switches of play per match	20.5	20.1
Long balls per match	23	33

Set pieces	Kawasaki Frontale	Shimizu S-Pulse
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	4	5.5
Corners against per match	3.6	6.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.52

Other	Kawasaki Frontale	Shimizu S-Pulse
Throw-in control	0.66	0.6

The goalkeepers	Svend Arvid Stanislaw Brodersen (Kawasaki Frontale)	Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse)
Saves	24	19
Save %	75%	86%
xG prevented	45%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kawasaki Frontale

Fixtures, form & tips

Shimizu S-Pulse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse according to our model?

The model gives Kawasaki Frontale a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kawasaki Frontale 44%, draw 25%, Shimizu S-Pulse 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.