J1 LeagueSanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kyoto24°21,6 mm5 km/h

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    Kyoto SangaKyoto SangaPossession control
    2–3
    Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa ReysolPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Kashiwa Reysol (49%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.04 (+10 %)

    Kyoto Sanga – Kashiwa Reysol · J1 League

    1 · Kyoto Sanga 24%X 27%49% Kashiwa Reysol · 2

    Analysis: Kyoto Sanga – Kashiwa Reysol

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Betting value emerges with Kashiwa Reysol at 2.30 odds, given their form and historical edge. — this odds figure is not supported by the FACTS provided.

    Corrected TEXT:

    The head-to-head in this fixture is a curious case. Despite facing each other six times since 2023, Kyoto Sanga have failed to win any, drawing five and losing once. This small sample suggests a tight contest historically but clashes with the broader form and model predictions, which favor Kashiwa Reysol quite decisively. The visitors' edge isn't massive but significant enough to suggest they're the better team currently.

    Kyoto's struggle is evident in their current form as well, with only five points accumulated this season against Kashiwa's twelve. Even in expected metrics, Kashiwa holds the upper hand, boasting better xPoints and a +0.3 xG differential per match. Kyoto's defensive frailties are particularly concerning, with an xGA of 1.8 per game, suggesting they'll likely concede at least once.

    The model suggests a 49% probability of a Kashiwa win, leaning towards a 1-1 or 1-2 scoreline. Expected goals imply a relatively open contest, despite the possession-control styles both teams adopt. However, the forecasted rain could dampen scoring opportunities, though this is already factored into the 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and the 57% chance both teams find the net.

    Betting value appears to favor Kashiwa Reysol, given their form and historical edge, though no specific odds are provided. The suggested 1-2 scoreline aligns well with this lean, alongside a high possibility of seeing more than two goals. The combination of Kashiwa's sharper attack and Kyoto's leaky defense makes backing the visitors a calculated risk.

    Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga
    Form DLWDL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #14xP/match #15Points #15
    Key players
    • Rafael Elias da Silva BatagliaFxG 0.50 · xT 0.08
    • Shinnosuke FukudaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.31
    • Ryuma NakanoCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.10
    Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol
    Form WWWLL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #9xP/match #10Points #4
    Key players
    • Tojiro KuboRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.17
    • Taiyo KogaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Kyoto Sanga 24% · Draw 27% · Kashiwa Reysol 49%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Kyoto Sanga FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,99fair 13,92-7 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Kashiwa ReysolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,97fair 6,68-26 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Kyoto Sanga – Kashiwa Reysol

    Predicted score matrix

    Kashiwa Reysol →
    Kyoto Sanga →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.9%
    0–19.1%
    0–28.1%
    0–34.6%
    0–4+2.9%
    1
    1–06.2%
    1–111.5%
    1–29.6%
    1–35.5%
    1–4+3.4%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–16.6%
    2–25.7%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+2.0%
    3
    3–01.5%
    3–12.6%
    3–22.2%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,18–1,71
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @2.23
    Over 2,555%
    @1.70

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Kashiwa Reysol to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.49

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Kashiwa Reysol to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Tojiro Kubo to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Tojiro Kubo to score22%
    • João Pedro Mendes Santos to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw27% probability@4.04PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Kyoto Sanga24% probability@4.39PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Kyoto Sanga24% probability@4.30BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Kyoto SangaX2 · Kashiwa Reysol
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    4.30    		3.651.70
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    4.30    		3.651.70
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    4.30    		3.651.70
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    4.39
    EV+ 10%
    4.04    		1.77

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 10:23

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 1.84 to 1.70 (−8%).

    1+6 %
    27 %17 %

    4.16 → 4.39

    X+8 %
    29 %19 %

    3.73 → 4.04

    2-4 %
    59 %49 %

    1.84 → 1.77

    Over 2,5-8 %
    59 %49 %

    1.84 → 1.70

    Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Kyoto Sanga 0Draw 5Kashiwa Reysol 1
    Goals: 8–9 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kyoto Sanga
    Kashiwa Reysol
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kyoto Sanga (7–11)
    Kashiwa Reysol (10–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kyoto Sanga
    João Pedro Mendes Santos: 167 passningar, xT 0.63SantosSung-Jun Yoon: 153 passningar, xT 0.2YoonYoshinori Suzuki: 151 passningar, xT 0.19SuzukiShinnosuke Fukuda: 146 passningar, xT 0.96FukudaKyo Sato: 133 passningar, xT 0.38SatoWeverton Silva de Andrade: 126 passningar, xT 0.14AndradeRyuma Nakano: 72 passningar, xT 0.29NakanoRafael Elias da Silva Bataglia: 68 passningar, xT 0.16BatagliaHaruki Arai: 58 passningar, xT 0.28AraiGakuji Ota: 50 passningar, xT 0.08OtaEverton Leandro de Oliveira Santos: 49 passningar, xT 0.22Santos
    Kashiwa Reysol
    Taiyo Koga: 438 passningar, xT 0.45KogaWataru Harada: 331 passningar, xT 1HaradaDaiki Sugioka: 298 passningar, xT 0.53SugiokaNobuteru Nakagawa: 289 passningar, xT 0.77NakagawaKoki Kumasaka: 259 passningar, xT 0.1KumasakaTojiro Kubo: 217 passningar, xT 0.79KuboYoshio Koizumi: 205 passningar, xT 0.34KoizumiRyosuke Kojima: 156 passningar, xT 0KojimaKeita Endo: 124 passningar, xT 0.19EndoKenshin Yuba: 85 passningar, xT 0.14YubaMasaki Watai: 81 passningar, xT 0.36Watai
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kyoto Sanga
    João Pedro Mendes Santos: 167 passningar, xT 0.63SantosSung-Jun Yoon: 153 passningar, xT 0.2YoonYoshinori Suzuki: 151 passningar, xT 0.19SuzukiShinnosuke Fukuda: 146 passningar, xT 0.96FukudaKyo Sato: 133 passningar, xT 0.38SatoWeverton Silva de Andrade: 126 passningar, xT 0.14AndradeRyuma Nakano: 72 passningar, xT 0.29NakanoRafael Elias da Silva Bataglia: 68 passningar, xT 0.16BatagliaHaruki Arai: 58 passningar, xT 0.28AraiGakuji Ota: 50 passningar, xT 0.08OtaEverton Leandro de Oliveira Santos: 49 passningar, xT 0.22Santos
    Kashiwa Reysol
    Taiyo Koga: 438 passningar, xT 0.45KogaWataru Harada: 331 passningar, xT 1HaradaDaiki Sugioka: 298 passningar, xT 0.53SugiokaNobuteru Nakagawa: 289 passningar, xT 0.77NakagawaKoki Kumasaka: 259 passningar, xT 0.1KumasakaTojiro Kubo: 217 passningar, xT 0.79KuboYoshio Koizumi: 205 passningar, xT 0.34KoizumiRyosuke Kojima: 156 passningar, xT 0KojimaKeita Endo: 124 passningar, xT 0.19EndoKenshin Yuba: 85 passningar, xT 0.14YubaMasaki Watai: 81 passningar, xT 0.36Watai

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKyoto SangaKashiwa Reysol
    Points512
    xPoints6.68.7
    xG per match1.11.4
    xGA per match1.81.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.490.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.17
    Playing styleKyoto SangaKashiwa Reysol
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.490.67
    xT per match0.961.1
    xTA per match1.30.79
    Won balls, offensive half2320
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.290.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.23
    Entries into the box per match1215
    Entries into the box against1810
    Pass completion %0.710.84
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.76
    Passes per match300571
    Passes against per match366351
    Switches of play per match19.736.7
    Long balls per match2234
    Set piecesKyoto SangaKashiwa Reysol
    xG from free kicks0.110.01
    Corners per match2.55.6
    Corners against per match63.9
    xG per corner0.010
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.270.91
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.86
    OtherKyoto SangaKashiwa Reysol
    Throw-in control0.70.77
    The goalkeepersHedhe Halls Rocha da Silva (Kyoto Sanga)Ryosuke Kojima (Kashiwa Reysol)
    Saves1410
    Save %82%56%
    xG prevented63%23%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Kyoto Sanga
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Kashiwa Reysol
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol according to our model?

    The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kyoto Sanga 24%, draw 27%, Kashiwa Reysol 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.