J1 League27°10 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Mito HollyhockMito HollyhockBalanced & physical
    vs
    Kashima AntlersKashima AntlersBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Kashima Antlers (52%)

    Mito Hollyhock – Kashima Antlers · J1 League

    1 · Mito Hollyhock 23%X 25%52% Kashima Antlers · 2

    Analysis: Mito Hollyhock – Kashima Antlers

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Six straight victories paint a formidable picture for Kashima Antlers, but the underlying numbers suggest a more nuanced narrative. Despite their impressive win streak, Kashima's expected points (xPoints) lag behind Mito Hollyhock. A curious tension emerges when you consider Hollyhock's stronger xPoints at 4.5 compared to Kashima's 3.7, raising questions about sustainability and luck.

    Yet, the visitors don't just rely on fortune. With a predicted 52% chance of winning, the model gives a clear lean toward Kashima, reflecting their potent mix of form and expected goals. Kashima leads in expected goals per match (1.6 to 1.5) and concedes fewer chances, boasting an xGA of 1.2 compared to Mito's 1.4. This defensive solidity could prove pivotal.

    For Mito Hollyhock, the challenge is clear. Their balanced and physical style might not suffice against a side brimming with confidence and efficiency. The hosts will need to outmuscle a Kashima team that mirrors their physical approach. With evenly matched playing styles, individual moments of quality might tip the scale.

    When it comes to goals, the numbers provide a cautious outlook. With a 47% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 51% likelihood for both teams to score, this could easily swing either way. While Mito might find the net, Kashima's superior firepower and form suggest they will edge ahead, perhaps by the predicted 1-2 margin.

    The sharpest angle here involves the form and calculated probabilities. Kashima Antlers at 52% likely to win carries potential value, particularly if bookmaker odds of 2.00 or better are available. Given their current streak and defensive edge, the visitors seem a calculated bet to snatch a victory, but don't dismiss a tight contest that respects Mito Hollyhock's statistical resilience.

    Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
    Form LDW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #16xT #13xP/match #8Points #11
    Key players
    • Kotaro UchinoFxG 0.36 · xT -0.08
    • Sho OmoriLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
    • Takumi MaseRWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.24
    Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #10xP/match #12Points #2
    Key players
    • Leo CearaFxG 0.71 · xT 0.13
    • Ryoya OgawaLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
    • Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.10 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Mito Hollyhock – Kashima Antlers

    Predicted score matrix

    Kashima Antlers →
    Mito Hollyhock →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.1%
    0–111.6%
    0–29.1%
    0–34.7%
    0–4+2.5%
    1
    1–07.6%
    1–112.5%
    1–29.3%
    1–34.8%
    1–4+2.6%
    2
    2–04.1%
    2–16.2%
    2–24.8%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,02–1,53
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @1.81
    Over 2,547%
    @2.01

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Kashima Antlers to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Kashima Antlers to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • Yuma Suzuki to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • Yuma Suzuki to score30%
    • Chihiro Kato to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Mito HollyhockX2 · Kashima Antlers
    Betsafe3.853.251.92
    Betsson3.853.251.92
    Nordicbet3.853.251.92
    Pinnacle3.973.591.90

    Odds updated 31 Aug, 13:35

    Odds movement

    1+6 %
    27 %22 %

    3.74 → 3.97

    X+3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.47 → 3.59

    2-5 %
    51 %46 %

    2.00 → 1.90

    Over 2,5-1 %
    49 %44 %

    2.04 → 2.01

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Kashima Antlers come into this round on 6 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mito Hollyhock
    Kashima Antlers
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mito Hollyhock (5–4)
    Kashima Antlers (9–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mito Hollyhock
    Kenta Itakura: 133 passningar, xT 0.05ItakuraYasuki Kimoto: 117 passningar, xT 0.29KimotoSho Omori: 110 passningar, xT 0.46OmoriTaishi Semba: 108 passningar, xT 0.13SembaYu Funabashi: 102 passningar, xT 0.28FunabashiKonosuke Nishikawa: 98 passningar, xT 0.21NishikawaTakumi Mase: 89 passningar, xT 0.39MaseKaito Taniguchi: 40 passningar, xT 0.21TaniguchiArata Watanabe: 39 passningar, xT 0.02WatanabeYoshiki Torikai: 37 passningar, xT 0.47TorikaiKotaro Uchino: 29 passningar, xT -0.25Uchino
    Kashima Antlers
    Ikuma Sekigawa: 147 passningar, xT 0.19SekigawaRyoya Ogawa: 143 passningar, xT 0.33OgawaNaomichi Ueda: 139 passningar, xT 0.19UedaRikuto Hirose: 135 passningar, xT 0.43HiroseMatheus Bueno: 129 passningar, xT 0.13BuenoKento Misao: 123 passningar, xT 0.02MisaoGaku Shibasaki: 107 passningar, xT 0.11ShibasakiYuma Suzuki: 78 passningar, xT 0.11SuzukiTomoki Hayakawa: 78 passningar, xT 0.16HayakawaLeo Ceara: 60 passningar, xT 0.36CearaYuta Matsumura: 45 passningar, xT 0.6Matsumura
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mito Hollyhock
    Kenta Itakura: 133 passningar, xT 0.05ItakuraYasuki Kimoto: 117 passningar, xT 0.29KimotoSho Omori: 110 passningar, xT 0.46OmoriTaishi Semba: 108 passningar, xT 0.13SembaYu Funabashi: 102 passningar, xT 0.28FunabashiKonosuke Nishikawa: 98 passningar, xT 0.21NishikawaTakumi Mase: 89 passningar, xT 0.39MaseKaito Taniguchi: 40 passningar, xT 0.21TaniguchiArata Watanabe: 39 passningar, xT 0.02WatanabeYoshiki Torikai: 37 passningar, xT 0.47TorikaiKotaro Uchino: 29 passningar, xT -0.25Uchino
    Kashima Antlers
    Ikuma Sekigawa: 147 passningar, xT 0.19SekigawaRyoya Ogawa: 143 passningar, xT 0.33OgawaNaomichi Ueda: 139 passningar, xT 0.19UedaRikuto Hirose: 135 passningar, xT 0.43HiroseMatheus Bueno: 129 passningar, xT 0.13BuenoKento Misao: 123 passningar, xT 0.02MisaoGaku Shibasaki: 107 passningar, xT 0.11ShibasakiYuma Suzuki: 78 passningar, xT 0.11SuzukiTomoki Hayakawa: 78 passningar, xT 0.16HayakawaLeo Ceara: 60 passningar, xT 0.36CearaYuta Matsumura: 45 passningar, xT 0.6Matsumura

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMito HollyhockKashima Antlers
    Points49
    xPoints4.53.7
    xG per match1.51.6
    xGA per match1.41.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.28
    Playing styleMito HollyhockKashima Antlers
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.320.61
    xT per match0.951.1
    xTA per match1.20.76
    Won balls, offensive half2520
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.240.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.21
    Entries into the box per match1311
    Entries into the box against169
    Pass completion %0.770.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.7
    Passes per match339433
    Passes against per match531301
    Switches of play per match25.328
    Long balls per match3234
    Set piecesMito HollyhockKashima Antlers
    xG from free kicks0.130.12
    Corners per match7.24.5
    Corners against per match3.83.9
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.050.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.36
    First touch, defensive corners %0.450.5
    OtherMito HollyhockKashima Antlers
    Throw-in control0.640.75
    The goalkeepersKonosuke Nishikawa (Mito Hollyhock)Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers)
    Saves127
    Save %75%64%
    xG prevented58%33%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima Antlers according to our model?

    The model gives Kashima Antlers a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mito Hollyhock 23%, draw 25%, Kashima Antlers 52%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos
    3–4
    Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers
    1 25%X 30%2 45%
    The model called the outcome
    Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
    4–3
    Urawa RedsUrawa Reds
    1 38%X 26%2 36%
    The model called the outcome
    Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
    0–1
    Shimizu S-PulseShimizu S-Pulse
    1 43%X 27%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.