Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

J1 League6 September 2026Toyota Stadium, Toyota24°15,9 mm7 km/h

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Nagoya GrampusPossession control

1–3

Machida ZelviaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Machida Zelvia (44%)

1 · Nagoya Grampus 30%X 26%44% Machida Zelvia · 2

30%

26%

44%

Analysis: Nagoya Grampus – Machida Zelvia

Oscar Nilsson · 5 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Machida Zelvia's recent form and tactical resilience present a formidable challenge for Nagoya Grampus, especially given the visitors' physical style of play against the hosts' possession-based approach. The numbers tell a compelling story: Machida's unbeaten streak in their last five league matches and their perfect head-to-head record since 2023 (albeit from a small sample of four matches) indicate a trend that favors the away side. The model leans heavily towards Zelvia, reflecting a 44% probability of them taking all three points.

Nagoya's struggles are underscored by their lackluster xPoints of 5.5 compared to Machida's 9.2. This discrepancy is mirrored in their xG stats, with Grampus trailing at 1.3 per match against Zelvia's 1.9. Despite controlling possession, they have failed to translate it into substantial goal-scoring opportunities, a concern amplified by Machida's tighter defense, allowing only 1.0 xGA per match. The model predicts a narrow victory for Zelvia, with the 1-1 draw standing at 12% likelihood and the 1-2 away win at 9% likelihood.

With rain forecasted to potentially dampen the tempo, both teams might find it slightly harder to execute their preferred styles effectively, yet the model's over 2.5 goals probability of 51% suggests goals are still more likely than not. The expected goals lean towards a marginally higher tally for Machida, reinforcing the view that Zelvia might edge this encounter.

For those seeking value, the model's inclination towards an away win presents a potentially interesting angle for bettors. Ending on that note, Machida's blend of form, defensive solidity, and Nagoya's struggles make for an intriguing clash with the visitors tipped to come out on top.

Nagoya Grampus

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #10xP/match #14Points #11

Key players

Katsuhiro NakayamaLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
Haruya FujiiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Sho InagakiCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.13

Machida Zelvia

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #3xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Tete YengiFxG 0.46 · xT -0.01
Takuma NishimuraFxG 0.86 · xT 0.11
Yuta NakayamaLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.47

Final score

1 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Nagoya Grampus 30% · Draw 26% · Machida Zelvia 44%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Nagoya GrampusBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,79fair 12,21-20 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Machida ZelviaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,76fair 8,99-25 %

Hit

Match prediction: Nagoya Grampus – Machida Zelvia

Predicted score matrix

Machida Zelvia →

Nagoya Grampus →

0–07.0%

0–19.3%

0–27.1%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.7%

1–08.0%

1–112.5%

1–28.9%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.2%

2–17.6%

2–25.5%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.2%

3–13.2%

3–22.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,25–1,46

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.01

Over 2,551%

@1.86

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Machida Zelvia or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Machida Zelvia or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Takahiro Akimoto to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Takahiro Akimoto to score26%
Tomoki Takamine to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Machida Zelvia44% probability@2.28PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nagoya Grampus	X	2 · Machida Zelvia
Betsafe	3.15	3.25	2.15
Betsson	3.15	3.25	2.15
Nordicbet	3.15	3.25	2.15
Pinnacle	3.14	3.56	EV+ 1% 2.28

Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

1-1 %

33 %28 %

3.16 → 3.14

X+2 %

29 %24 %

3.49 → 3.56

2+3 %

45 %40 %

2.22 → 2.28

Over 2,5+2 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.86

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Nagoya Grampus 0Draw 0Machida Zelvia 4

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nagoya Grampus

Machida Zelvia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nagoya Grampus (6–8)

Machida Zelvia (15–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nagoya Grampus

Machida Zelvia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nagoya Grampus

Machida Zelvia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nagoya Grampus	Machida Zelvia
Points	6	13
xPoints	5.5	9.2
xG per match	1.3	1.9
xGA per match	1.3	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.08

Playing style	Nagoya Grampus	Machida Zelvia
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.35
Field tilt	0.56	0.56
xT per match	1	1.5
xTA per match	0.98	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	26	29
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.23
Entries into the box per match	16	15
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.79	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.74
Passes per match	426	382
Passes against per match	304	383
Switches of play per match	33.8	19.5
Long balls per match	40	29

Set pieces	Nagoya Grampus	Machida Zelvia
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.05
Corners per match	5.6	4.4
Corners against per match	4.8	2.2
xG per corner	0.06	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.55

Other	Nagoya Grampus	Machida Zelvia
Throw-in control	0.74	0.7

The goalkeepers	Alexandre Pisano (Nagoya Grampus)	Kosei Tani (Machida Zelvia)
Saves	17	11
Save %	71%	73%
xG prevented	63%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nagoya Grampus

Fixtures, form & tips

Machida Zelvia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia according to our model?

The model gives Machida Zelvia a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nagoya Grampus 30%, draw 26%, Machida Zelvia 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.