Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

J1 League12 September 2026Edion Peace Wing, Hiroshima25°0,5 mm7 km/h

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Sanfrecce HiroshimaPossession & high press

Cerezo OsakaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (68%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.65 (+10 %)

1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 68%X 20%12% Cerezo Osaka · 2

68%

20%

12%

Analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Cerezo Osaka

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT CORRECTED:

Sanfrecce Hiroshima's high-pressing approach has been a nightmare for Cerezo Osaka in recent encounters. With a record of three wins and three draws in their last six matches against the visitors, the hosts have dominated this fixture. Their ability to control possession and suffocate opponents in their own half is reflected in the expected goals (xG) numbers: an impressive 2.17 for Hiroshima, compared to a paltry 0.72 for Osaka. This disparity underscores the likelihood of a home win, aligning with the model's 68% probability for Hiroshima.

Cerezo Osaka's reliance on counter-attacking play and crosses could, in theory, exploit any lapses in Hiroshima's defensive setup. However, the hosts' defensive solidity — allowing just 0.69 expected goals against (xGA) per match — suggests that Osaka's chances of breaking through will be limited. Their expected dominance in this game is hard to ignore.

Despite Hiroshima's clear superiority in recent matchups, the underperforming xPoints for Osaka (5.8) versus Hiroshima's 12.0 signal a deeper underlying issue for the visitors. With only a 12% chance of victory according to the model, Osaka's hopes rest on rare breakaway opportunities. Meanwhile, Hiroshima's steady home form — winning 59% of their games at home — further cements their status as favorites.

While the model leans towards a 2-0 or 1-0 result, the over 2.5 goals probability sits marginally at 55%, hinting at a potentially tight affair. A sharp angle emerges from the under 2.5 goals market, where value (EV+) appears at 2.42 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 45% rating on this bet suggests an 8% edge, making the under an enticing proposition for those eyeing a defensive masterclass from the hosts.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Form WDDWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #5

Key players

Akito SuzukiFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
Sébastien Romain Teddy HallerFxG 0.53 · xT 0.08
Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.41

Cerezo Osaka

Form LWLWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #9xT #11xP/match #16Points #9

Key players

Solomon SakuragawaFxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
Takumi NakamuraRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Jackson Alexander IrvineCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Cerezo Osaka

Predicted score matrix

Cerezo Osaka →

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0–05.8%

0–13.8%

0–21.4%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.8%

1–18.9%

1–23.1%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–013.0%

2–19.4%

2–23.4%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.4%

3–16.8%

3–22.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–08.5%

4+–16.1%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-012%
3.3-09%
4.2-19%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

2,17–0,72

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.42EV+8%

Over 2,555%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win68%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win68%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Akito Suzuki to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Akito Suzuki to score32%
Hayato Okuda to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.567% probability@1.65PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima68% probability@1.60PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima	X	2 · Cerezo Osaka
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 1.55	4.15	4.70
Betsson	EV+ 5% 1.55	4.15	4.70
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 1.55	4.15	4.70
Pinnacle	EV+ 8% 1.60	4.38	5.12

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29

Odds movement

1+3 %

62 %57 %

1.56 → 1.60

X-1 %

24 %19 %

4.41 → 4.38

2-1 %

21 %16 %

5.19 → 5.12

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3Draw 3Cerezo Osaka 0

Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 1,7)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Sanfrecce Hiroshima dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 59% of their home matches all-time (58 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Cerezo Osaka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (13–5)

Cerezo Osaka (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Cerezo Osaka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Cerezo Osaka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Cerezo Osaka
Points	11	10
xPoints	12	5.8
xG per match	2.3	0.89
xGA per match	0.69	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.06
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.1

Playing style	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Cerezo Osaka
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.69	0.53
xT per match	1.7	1
xTA per match	0.75	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	29	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.36
Entries into the box per match	20	12
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.72
Passes per match	469	409
Passes against per match	317	277
Switches of play per match	37.2	24.9
Long balls per match	42	35

Set pieces	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Cerezo Osaka
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.02
Corners per match	5.7	6.7
Corners against per match	2	5.7
xG per corner	0.07	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.41

Other	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Cerezo Osaka
Throw-in control	0.72	0.79

The goalkeepers	Issei Ouchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)	Kosuke Nakamura (Cerezo Osaka)
Saves	15	19
Save %	79%	79%
xG prevented	53%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Fixtures, form & tips

Cerezo Osaka

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka according to our model?

The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 68%, draw 20%, Cerezo Osaka 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.