Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

J1 League12 September 2026IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka17°0,4 mm16 km/h

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Shimizu S-PulseLow block & direct

Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Avispa Fukuoka (39%)

1 · Shimizu S-Pulse 32%X 30%39% Avispa Fukuoka · 2

32%

30%

39%

Analysis: Shimizu S-Pulse – Avispa Fukuoka

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The odds figure "3.10" for Fukuoka is not supported by the provided facts and should be removed.

Despite Shimizu S-Pulse's unbeaten head-to-head record against Avispa Fukuoka in the small sample of two matches since 2023, the numbers tilt the scales in favor of the visitors for this clash. Fukuoka's 39% win probability outstrips the hosts' 32%, and with an expected goals tally of 1.30 compared to Shimizu's 1.06, their edge becomes clearer. Both sides sport contrasting styles, with Shimizu leaning on a direct approach and Fukuoka preferring a balanced, physical game.

While the historical encounters favor Shimizu, with one win and a draw, they hold less weight given the limited data. What stands out is Fukuoka's more robust defensive profile, conceding an average of just 1.0 xGA per match compared to Shimizu's worrying 1.6. This defensive solidity could prove decisive, particularly against a side that struggles to keep goals out.

The most probable scorelines of 1-1, 0-1, and 0-0 suggest a tight affair, with goals possibly at a premium. Given the low over 2.5 goals probability of 42% and the 48% chance of both teams finding the net, a cagey game seems likely. Shimizu might seek to exploit their slight edge in creating chances quickly after regaining possession, but Fukuoka's balanced setup should help them control the tempo.

The match leans toward a narrow Avispa Fukuoka victory, with 0-1 a very plausible outcome. Fukuoka's subtle advantages and defensive prowess could prove decisive. In a contest where small margins will matter, Fukuoka's defensive structure might just be the key to edging out Shimizu.

Shimizu S-Pulse

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #12xP/match #11Points #17

Key players

Se-Hun OhFxG 0.67 · xT 0.11
Koya KitagawaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
Mateus Brunetti ValorLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.41

Avispa Fukuoka

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #13xP/match #5Points #16

Key players

Shosei UsuiFxG 0.36 · xT 0.03
Yu HashimotoRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
Werik Silva PintoFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse – Avispa Fukuoka

Predicted score matrix

Avispa Fukuoka →

Shimizu S-Pulse →

0–09.7%

0–111.8%

0–28.0%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.6%

1–113.4%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–05.3%

2–16.9%

2–24.5%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.9%

3–12.5%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,06–1,30

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.69

Over 2,542%

@2.22

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Avispa Fukuoka or draw (X2)70%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Avispa Fukuoka or draw (X2)70%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Werik Silva Pinto to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Kosuke Kinoshita to score21%
Yudai Shimamoto to be booked19%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Shimizu S-Pulse	X	2 · Avispa Fukuoka
Betsafe	2.80	3.05	2.42
Betsson	2.80	3.05	2.42
Nordicbet	2.80	3.05	2.42
Pinnacle	2.94	3.33	2.49

Odds updated 11 Sept, 17:38

Odds movement

1+3 %

35 %30 %

2.85 → 2.94

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.29 → 3.33

2-1 %

41 %36 %

2.51 → 2.49

Over 2,5+1 %

46 %41 %

2.20 → 2.22

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Shimizu S-Pulse 1Draw 1Avispa Fukuoka 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Shimizu S-Pulse

Avispa Fukuoka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Shimizu S-Pulse (3–7)

Avispa Fukuoka (9–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Shimizu S-Pulse

Avispa Fukuoka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Shimizu S-Pulse

Avispa Fukuoka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Shimizu S-Pulse	Avispa Fukuoka
Points	4	4
xPoints	8.3	9.9
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.17

Playing style	Shimizu S-Pulse	Avispa Fukuoka
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.31	0.54
xT per match	1	1
xTA per match	1.2	0.71
Won balls, offensive half	30	30
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	15	9
Pass completion %	0.67	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.67
Passes per match	240	271
Passes against per match	433	379
Switches of play per match	20.1	17.6
Long balls per match	32	29

Set pieces	Shimizu S-Pulse	Avispa Fukuoka
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.04
Corners per match	5.4	5.1
Corners against per match	6.9	1.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.46	0.56

Other	Shimizu S-Pulse	Avispa Fukuoka
Throw-in control	0.6	0.8

The goalkeepers	Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse)	Takumi Nagaishi (Avispa Fukuoka)
Saves	24	7
Save %	80%	58%
xG prevented	61%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Shimizu S-Pulse

Fixtures, form & tips

Avispa Fukuoka

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka according to our model?

The model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shimizu S-Pulse 32%, draw 30%, Avispa Fukuoka 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.