01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FC Tokyo or draw (X2)72%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
J1 LeagueIAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka16°19,9 mm17 km/h
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Shimizu S-PulseLow block & directvs
FC TokyoBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · FC Tokyo (41%)Best value by the model: 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse @ 3.70 (+8 %)
Shimizu S-Pulse – FC Tokyo · J1 League
1 · Shimizu S-Pulse 29%X 30%41% FC Tokyo · 2
29%
30%
41%
Analysis: Shimizu S-Pulse – FC Tokyo
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Shimizu S-Pulse enter this match with a curious contradiction: despite sitting marginally behind FC Tokyo in the points tally, their underlying numbers tell a different story. The hosts boast an impressive xPoints edge at 5.6 compared to Tokyo's 4.4, suggesting they have been performing better than their results indicate. Their low xGA of 0.83 per match stands out, though their playing style profiles as low defence & direct rather than defensively solid, which could make containing Tokyo's physical approach a challenge.
The visitors, however, shouldn't be underestimated. With the model favoring them at a 41% win probability, FC Tokyo has shown a balanced yet physical style on the pitch. They hold an edge in xG per match at 1.5, slightly outpacing Shimizu's 1.4. This hints at a potential to breach the home side's defenses, albeit in a rainy match that may suppress goal-scoring opportunities overall. The expected rain suggests a tighter affair than usual.
Two prior head-to-head encounters since 2023, where Shimizu have remained unbeaten, provide limited sample weight against the broader statistical trends. With model probabilities and current form considered, a draw or narrow Tokyo win seems plausible. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, sitting at 13%, closely followed by a 0-1 Tokyo win at 12%.
For bettors, the tilt towards FC Tokyo is noteworthy given the model's assessment. However, with only a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals, a low-scoring clash is likely, aligning with the under on the goals market. Shimizu's low xGA combined with the expected weather conditions provides a compelling case for those expecting a cagey encounter.
Shimizu S-PulseForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #9xP/match #4Points #15
Key players
- Se-Hun OhFxG 0.71 · xT 0.09
- Koya KitagawaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
- Yudai ShimamotoRWxG 0.30 · xT -0.13
FC TokyoForm DDLDW
League ranking xG #4xGA #17xT #7xP/match #9Points #9
Key players
- Motoki NagakuraFxG 0.46 · xT 0.18
- Kein SatoRWxG 0.07 · xT -0.04
- Hayato InamuraCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse – FC Tokyo
Predicted score matrix
FC Tokyo →
Shimizu S-Pulse →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.7%
0–112.2%
0–28.5%
0–33.8%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–09.1%
1–113.2%
1–28.7%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–04.9%
2–16.6%
2–24.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–01.7%
3–12.2%
3–21.5%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
1,02–1,35
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.79EV+3%
Over 2,542%
@2.04
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FC Tokyo or draw (X2)72%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Marcelo Ryan Silvestre dos Santos to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Marcelo Ryan Silvestre dos Santos to score23%
- Zento Uno to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse29% probability@3.70PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse29% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse29% probability@3.60BetssonEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse | X | 2 · FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.02 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.02 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 8% 3.70 | EV+ 3% 3.46 | 2.02 |
Odds updated 31 Aug, 08:35
Odds movement
1+2 %
28 %23 %
3.64 → 3.70
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.45 → 3.46
2-1 %
49 %44 %
2.04 → 2.02
Over 2,50 %
49 %44 %
2.03 → 2.04
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesShimizu S-Pulse 1Draw 1FC Tokyo 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Shimizu S-Pulse
FC Tokyo
Shimizu S-Pulse (1–2)
FC Tokyo (5–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Shimizu S-Pulse
FC Tokyo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Shimizu S-Pulse
FC Tokyo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Shimizu S-Pulse | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 4 |
| xPoints | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 0.83 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| Playing style | Shimizu S-Pulse | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.6 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.57 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 192 | 361 |
| Passes against per match | 428 | 360 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.6 | 21.6 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Shimizu S-Pulse | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 8.4 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.18 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.46 |
| Other | Shimizu S-Pulse | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse) | Seung-Gyu Kim (FC Tokyo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 6 |
| Save % | 86% | 46% |
| xG prevented | 88% | 17% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo according to our model?
The model gives FC Tokyo a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shimizu S-Pulse 29%, draw 30%, FC Tokyo 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.