J1 LeagueSaitama Stadium 2002, Saitama24°3,4 mm7 km/h

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    Urawa RedsUrawa RedsLow block & direct
    vs
    Tokyo VerdyTokyo VerdyLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Urawa Reds (55%)

    Urawa Reds – Tokyo Verdy · J1 League

    1 · Urawa Reds 55%X 26%19% Tokyo Verdy · 2

    Analysis: Urawa Reds – Tokyo Verdy

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    In a game where both Urawa Reds and Tokyo Verdy exhibit low defensive profiles paired with a direct playing style, the momentum leans heavily toward the hosts. On a streak of three consecutive victories, Urawa Reds have been consistently finding the net, scoring in eight league matches in a row. Their attacking edge is supported by an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.82, far outstripping Tokyo Verdy's 0.95. This attacking prowess suggests that Urawa's ability to break down defences could be central to the match's outcome.

    Despite only a modest 11% probability for a 1-1 draw and the same for a 1-0 home victory, the model paints a picture of a tightly contested affair with a slight tilt in favour of Urawa Reds. Three wins on the trot contrast with Tokyo Verdy’s struggle for results, having accumulated only three points so far this season. The head-to-head record since 2023 is a small sample (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss for Urawa Reds), which weighs less in comparison to the current form and expected goals data that clearly favour the hosts.

    The weather forecast adds another layer, with 33.8 mm of rain expected, potentially dampening the attacking flair of both sides. However, the predicted inclement conditions are already factored into the model's numbers, which still suggest a slight over 2.5 goals lean at 52%. Urawa's historical win rate of 55% at home, coupled with their form, enhances the likelihood of a home win, with a 1-0 or 2-0 result appearing plausible.

    While no outcome is guaranteed, the numbers place the hosts as favorites to control the narrative, despite weather challenges.

    Urawa RedsUrawa Reds
    Form LLWWW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #17xT #4xP/match #12Points #10
    Key players
    • Ryoma WatanabeFxG 0.50 · xT 0.23
    • Takuro KanekoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.38
    • Matheus SavioCAMxG 0.41 · xT 0.17
    Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
    Form LDLLD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #19xP/match #14Points #19
    Key players
    • Itsuki SomenoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
    • Rei HirakawaCAMxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
    • Yuya FukudaLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: Urawa Reds – Tokyo Verdy

    Predicted score matrix

    Tokyo Verdy →
    Urawa Reds →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–15.7%
    0–22.8%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.1%
    1–111.2%
    1–25.2%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.3%
    3–16.0%
    3–22.8%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–04.3%
    4+–14.1%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,82–0,95
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    –
    Over 2,552%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Urawa Reds to win55%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.16

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Urawa Reds to win55%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Renji Hidano to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Renji Hidano to score37%
    • Rei Hirakawa to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Urawa Reds 1Draw 2Tokyo Verdy 1
    Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Urawa Reds come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Urawa Reds have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    • Urawa Reds win 55% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Urawa Reds
    Tokyo Verdy
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Urawa Reds (12–15)
    Tokyo Verdy (2–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Urawa Reds
    Yuta Miyamoto: 287 passningar, xT 0.56MiyamotoDanilo Boza: 185 passningar, xT 0.12BozaKaito Yasui: 113 passningar, xT 0.18YasuiYoichi Naganuma: 111 passningar, xT 0.46NaganumaTakuro Kaneko: 109 passningar, xT 1.21KanekoTatsuki Seko: 107 passningar, xT 0.3SekoHayate Ueki: 103 passningar, xT 0.07UekiRyoma Watanabe: 102 passningar, xT 0.29WatanabeMatheus Savio: 101 passningar, xT 0.47SavioShusaku Nishikawa: 87 passningar, xT 0.31NishikawaKotaro Hayashi: 83 passningar, xT 0.15Hayashi
    Tokyo Verdy
    Rei Hirakawa: 169 passningar, xT 0.07HirakawaNaoki Hayashi: 156 passningar, xT -0.04HayashiShogo Sasaki: 132 passningar, xT 0.13SasakiKaito Suzuki: 129 passningar, xT 0.48SuzukiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 117 passningar, xT 0.16OliveriaSoma Meshino: 97 passningar, xT 0.11MeshinoKazuya Miyahara: 84 passningar, xT 0.1MiyaharaShuhei Mizoguchi: 78 passningar, xT 0.29MizoguchiYuya Fukuda: 73 passningar, xT 0.48FukudaYuta Arai: 67 passningar, xT 0.24AraiYosuke Uchida: 64 passningar, xT 0.13Uchida
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Urawa Reds
    Yuta Miyamoto: 287 passningar, xT 0.56MiyamotoDanilo Boza: 185 passningar, xT 0.12BozaKaito Yasui: 113 passningar, xT 0.18YasuiYoichi Naganuma: 111 passningar, xT 0.46NaganumaTakuro Kaneko: 109 passningar, xT 1.21KanekoTatsuki Seko: 107 passningar, xT 0.3SekoHayate Ueki: 103 passningar, xT 0.07UekiRyoma Watanabe: 102 passningar, xT 0.29WatanabeMatheus Savio: 101 passningar, xT 0.47SavioShusaku Nishikawa: 87 passningar, xT 0.31NishikawaKotaro Hayashi: 83 passningar, xT 0.15Hayashi
    Tokyo Verdy
    Rei Hirakawa: 169 passningar, xT 0.07HirakawaNaoki Hayashi: 156 passningar, xT -0.04HayashiShogo Sasaki: 132 passningar, xT 0.13SasakiKaito Suzuki: 129 passningar, xT 0.48SuzukiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 117 passningar, xT 0.16OliveriaSoma Meshino: 97 passningar, xT 0.11MeshinoKazuya Miyahara: 84 passningar, xT 0.1MiyaharaShuhei Mizoguchi: 78 passningar, xT 0.29MizoguchiYuya Fukuda: 73 passningar, xT 0.48FukudaYuta Arai: 67 passningar, xT 0.24AraiYosuke Uchida: 64 passningar, xT 0.13Uchida

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceUrawa RedsTokyo Verdy
    Points93
    xPoints8.26.9
    xG per match1.70.89
    xGA per match1.71.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.16
    Playing styleUrawa RedsTokyo Verdy
    Build-up efficiency0.320.28
    Field tilt0.480.24
    xT per match1.40.73
    xTA per match1.41.6
    Won balls, offensive half2823
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.23
    Entries into the box per match138
    Entries into the box against1617
    Pass completion %0.720.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.66
    Passes per match314289
    Passes against per match306505
    Switches of play per match20.511.6
    Long balls per match2823
    Set piecesUrawa RedsTokyo Verdy
    xG from free kicks0.020.01
    Corners per match3.73.2
    Corners against per match55.9
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.050.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.70.57
    OtherUrawa RedsTokyo Verdy
    Throw-in control0.730.73
    The goalkeepersShusaku Nishikawa (Urawa Reds)Matheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria (Tokyo Verdy)
    Saves2621
    Save %63%72%
    xG prevented59%56%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Urawa Reds
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tokyo Verdy
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Urawa Reds vs Tokyo Verdy according to our model?

    The model gives Urawa Reds a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Urawa Reds 55%, draw 26%, Tokyo Verdy 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.