V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

J1 League19 September 2026Peace Stadium, Nagasaki28°0,6 mm11 km/h

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V-Varen NagasakiCounter-attacks & crosses

Cerezo OsakaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Cerezo Osaka (40%)

1 · V-Varen Nagasaki 31%X 29%40% Cerezo Osaka · 2

31%

29%

40%

Analysis: V-Varen Nagasaki – Cerezo Osaka

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT contains unsupported claims not present in the FACTS: a reference to head-to-head data (no such data was provided) and specific bookmaker odds (3.40 Unibet odds) that are not part of the given facts.

Corrected TEXT:

A telling 40% win probability for Cerezo Osaka sets the tone for their encounter with V-Varen Nagasaki. While both teams are inclined towards counter-attacks and crosses, it's the visitors who hold the edge in terms of form, points, and expected goals statistics. Cerezo have accumulated 10 points to Nagasaki's mere 4, reflecting their more consistent performances. The current season form clearly leans towards the visitors.

Despite Nagasaki's slight advantage in creating quick chances — with an xG of 0.2 within eight seconds of winning the ball compared to Cerezo's 0.06 — the hosts are struggling elsewhere. Their higher expected goals against (1.5) suggests vulnerabilities that Cerezo might exploit, given their own xGA is marginally lower at 1.4. The expected goals model forecasts around 1.07 goals for Nagasaki and 1.50 for Osaka, hinting at a potentially narrow game where the visitors edge the proceedings.

The model suggests a 1-1 scoreline as most likely, but with a lean towards an Osaka victory, the 0-1 or 1-2 outcomes are intriguing. The 47% chance for over 2.5 goals suggests a moderately contained game overall.

V-Varen Nagasaki

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #16xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Thiago Santos SantanaFxG 0.47 · xT 0.07
Hijiri OnagaLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Motoki HasegawaCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Cerezo Osaka

Form LWLWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #9xT #11xP/match #16Points #9

Key players

Solomon SakuragawaFxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
Takumi NakamuraRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Jackson Alexander IrvineCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: V-Varen Nagasaki – Cerezo Osaka

Predicted score matrix

Cerezo Osaka →

V-Varen Nagasaki →

0–08.1%

0–111.2%

0–28.6%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.3%

1–07.9%

1–112.7%

1–29.2%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.4%

2–04.4%

2–16.6%

2–24.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.6%

3–12.3%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,07–1,50

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

–

Over 2,547%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2)73%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2)73%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Solomon Sakuragawa to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Solomon Sakuragawa to score34%
Hotaru Yamaguchi to be booked19%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

V-Varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

V-Varen Nagasaki (7–14)

Cerezo Osaka (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

V-Varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

V-Varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka

The teams in numbers

Performance	V-Varen Nagasaki	Cerezo Osaka
Points	4	10
xPoints	5.8	5.8
xG per match	0.86	0.89
xGA per match	1.5	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.06
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.1

Playing style	V-Varen Nagasaki	Cerezo Osaka
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.31	0.53
xT per match	0.85	1
xTA per match	1.1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	19	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.36
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	16	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	354	409
Passes against per match	467	277
Switches of play per match	13.7	24.9
Long balls per match	22	35

Set pieces	V-Varen Nagasaki	Cerezo Osaka
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	3.9	6.7
Corners against per match	4.5	5.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.41

Other	V-Varen Nagasaki	Cerezo Osaka
Throw-in control	0.73	0.79

The goalkeepers	Masaaki Goto (V-Varen Nagasaki)	Kosuke Nakamura (Cerezo Osaka)
Saves	18	19
Save %	60%	79%
xG prevented	32%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

V-Varen Nagasaki

Fixtures, form & tips

Cerezo Osaka

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka according to our model?

The model gives Cerezo Osaka a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: V-Varen Nagasaki 31%, draw 29%, Cerezo Osaka 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.