Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

J2 League13 September 202626°14 km/h

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Albirex Niigata

Montedio Yamagata

The model's lean: 1 · Albirex Niigata (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.46 (+9 %)

1 · Albirex Niigata 41%X 32%28% Montedio Yamagata · 2

41%

32%

28%

Analysis: Albirex Niigata – Montedio Yamagata

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Albirex Niigata enters this matchup with a slight analytical edge. The model gives them a 41% chance to triumph, leaning towards the hosts in a matchup that promises defensive discipline more than offensive fireworks. With expected goals sitting at 1.34 for Niigata and 1.08 for Montedio Yamagata, the tension is palpable but unlikely to explode into a high-scoring affair.

Small head-to-head samples can skew perceptions, and the model's lean reflects the current probabilities rather than any broader narrative. As both teams average goals just over the 1 mark, the likelihood of a low-scoring standoff crystallizes further. A 1-1 draw tops the probability chart at 13%, with a 1-0 home win closely following at 11%. Even the 0-0 scenario holds a notable 9%, underscoring the potential for a stalemate.

The expected 6.9 mm of rain is likely to suppress any attacking flair further. Such conditions traditionally dampen goal-scoring opportunities, which the model already accounts for. With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 44%, there's little indication of a scoring spree. This all points to a controlled, strategically played game, likely to be settled by a moment of precision or a lapse in concentration.

For bettors seeking an edge, the under 2.5 goals market emerges with a slight positive expected value. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 1.8 on this outcome. The model rates this occurrence at 56%, providing a modest 1% edge. Sticking with the theme of stability and defensive prowess, this appears to be the prudent play, one that aligns with the numbers and pays the bills without the need for glamour or high stakes.

Albirex Niigata

Form LWWL

Key players

Kazuyoshi ShimabukuLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
Tetsuya KatoLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Michael James FitzgeraldCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05

Montedio Yamagata

Form WLWWL

Key players

Junya TakahashiFxG 0.38 · xT 0.00
Akira Silvano DisaroFxG 0.66 · xT 0.05
Ryoma KidaRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Albirex Niigata – Montedio Yamagata

Predicted score matrix

Montedio Yamagata →

Albirex Niigata →

0–09.2%

0–19.2%

0–25.2%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.5%

1–113.2%

1–27.0%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.9%

2–18.6%

2–24.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.5%

3–13.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-09%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,34–1,08

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.84EV+1%

Over 2,544%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Jin Okumura to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Jin Okumura to score23%
Yusuke Onishi to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.46PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.84PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Albirex Niigata	X	2 · Montedio Yamagata
Betsafe	2.22	3.15	2.95
Betsson	2.22	3.15	2.95
Nordicbet	2.22	3.15	2.95
Pinnacle	2.28	EV+ 9% 3.46	2.93

Odds updated 11 Sept, 20:33

Odds movement

10 %

44 %39 %

2.28 → 2.28

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.46 → 3.46

20 %

34 %29 %

2.93 → 2.93

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.93 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Albirex Niigata

Montedio Yamagata

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Albirex Niigata (3–7)

Montedio Yamagata (8–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Albirex Niigata

Montedio Yamagata

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Albirex Niigata

Montedio Yamagata

The goalkeepers	Noam Baumann (Albirex Niigata)	Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata)
Saves	9	17
Save %	56%	85%
xG prevented	27%	69%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Albirex Niigata

Fixtures, form & tips

Montedio Yamagata

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata according to our model?

The model gives Albirex Niigata a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Albirex Niigata 41%, draw 32%, Montedio Yamagata 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.