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    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    vs
    Hokkaido Consadole SapporoHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    The model's lean: 1 · Vegalta Sendai (55%)

    Vegalta Sendai vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo · J2 League

    1 · Vegalta Sendai 55%X 26%20% Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo · 2

    Analysis: Vegalta Sendai – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Vegalta Sendai have held the upper hand in their recent encounters against Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo, with one win and a draw in the two matches since 2023. However, this sample is small and less indicative of future outcomes than the current form. It's the form that truly sets the stage for this clash, as the hosts are riding a wave of three consecutive victories, while the visitors are reeling from four straight defeats.

    Goals have been a constant for Sapporo despite their poor run, finding the net in 9 consecutive league matches. Yet, their defensive frailties have been glaring, which the Sendai side will aim to exploit. The model's expected goals of 1.70 for the home team speak volumes about their potential to break down a shaky Sapporo defense. For the visitors, the expected 0.95 goals suggest they'll need something special to tip the scales in their favor.

    While goals might not rain down, the balance hangs at a knife edge. The probability of a match with over 2.5 goals stands at 50%, while the chance of both teams scoring is slightly higher at 51%. This paints a picture of a closely contested match, where a single goal could be decisive. The model suggests a tight 1-1 or 1-0 scoreline as the most probable outcomes, hinting at a match that may not breach the over 2.5 goals threshold.

    The sharpest angle here lies in the home win, priced at 1.92 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model rating Sendai's chances at 55%, there's a clear 5% edge in those odds. For those seeking value, backing the hosts, who are in better form, looks the soundest play.

    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    Form LDWWW
    Key players
    • Shunta ArakiFxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
    • Tsubasa UmekiFxG 0.38 · xT 0.07
    • Hidetoshi TakedaRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
    Hokkaido Consadole SapporoHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Form WLLLL
    Key players
    • Supachok SarachatFxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
    • Haruto ShiraiRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.10
    • Ryunosuke UmetsuCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Vegalta Sendai – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

    Predicted score matrix

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo →
    Vegalta Sendai →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.3%
    0–16.4%
    0–23.2%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.6%
    1–111.7%
    1–25.4%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.2%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.8%
    3–15.5%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,70–0,95
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.90
    Over 2,550%
    @1.87

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Vegalta Sendai to win55%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.68

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Vegalta Sendai to win55%
    • Under 2.5 goals50%
    • Motohiko Nakajima to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Motohiko Nakajima to score27%
    • Ryunosuke Umetsu to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Vegalta Sendai55% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • 1 · Vegalta Sendai55% probability@1.85BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    • 1 · Vegalta Sendai55% probability@1.85NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Vegalta SendaiX2 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    1.85    		3.353.90
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    1.85    		3.353.90
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    1.85    		3.353.90
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 0%
    1.83    		3.544.08

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 06:38

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    52 %47 %

    1.91 → 1.83

    X+2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.47 → 3.54

    2+6 %
    26 %21 %

    3.84 → 4.08

    Over 2,5-1 %
    53 %48 %

    1.88 → 1.87

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Vegalta Sendai 1Draw 1Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 0
    Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Vegalta Sendai come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have lost 4 in a row.
    • Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vegalta Sendai
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vegalta Sendai (9–5)
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (6–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 193 passningar, xT 0.49InoueMateus Moraes: 165 passningar, xT 0.68MoraesHayata Ishii: 132 passningar, xT 0.64IshiiHiromu Kamada: 123 passningar, xT 0.12KamadaRyota Takada: 103 passningar, xT 0.44TakadaMotohiko Nakajima: 92 passningar, xT 0.43NakajimaHidetoshi Takeda: 80 passningar, xT 0.26TakedaMasayuki Okuyama: 80 passningar, xT 0.24OkuyamaAkihiro Hayashi: 70 passningar, xT 0.25HayashiYota Sugiyama: 67 passningar, xT 0.11SugiyamaShunta Araki: 54 passningar, xT 0.06Araki
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Ryunosuke Umetsu: 374 passningar, xT 0.51UmetsuShota Nishino: 241 passningar, xT 0.43NishinoMin-Gyu Park: 196 passningar, xT 0.7ParkTomoki Tagawa: 192 passningar, xT 0.22TagawaHiroki Miyazawa: 116 passningar, xT 0.21MiyazawaMizuki Uchida: 113 passningar, xT 0.38UchidaRenji Sanada: 100 passningar, xT 0.29SanadaRyu Takao: 95 passningar, xT 0.12TakaoYuto Horigome: 90 passningar, xT 0.18HorigomeShuma Kido: 84 passningar, xT 0.12KidoTeerapat Pruetong: 81 passningar, xT 0.53Pruetong
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 193 passningar, xT 0.49InoueMateus Moraes: 165 passningar, xT 0.68MoraesHayata Ishii: 132 passningar, xT 0.64IshiiHiromu Kamada: 123 passningar, xT 0.12KamadaRyota Takada: 103 passningar, xT 0.44TakadaMotohiko Nakajima: 92 passningar, xT 0.43NakajimaHidetoshi Takeda: 80 passningar, xT 0.26TakedaMasayuki Okuyama: 80 passningar, xT 0.24OkuyamaAkihiro Hayashi: 70 passningar, xT 0.25HayashiYota Sugiyama: 67 passningar, xT 0.11SugiyamaShunta Araki: 54 passningar, xT 0.06Araki
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Ryunosuke Umetsu: 374 passningar, xT 0.51UmetsuShota Nishino: 241 passningar, xT 0.43NishinoMin-Gyu Park: 196 passningar, xT 0.7ParkTomoki Tagawa: 192 passningar, xT 0.22TagawaHiroki Miyazawa: 116 passningar, xT 0.21MiyazawaMizuki Uchida: 113 passningar, xT 0.38UchidaRenji Sanada: 100 passningar, xT 0.29SanadaRyu Takao: 95 passningar, xT 0.12TakaoYuto Horigome: 90 passningar, xT 0.18HorigomeShuma Kido: 84 passningar, xT 0.12KidoTeerapat Pruetong: 81 passningar, xT 0.53Pruetong
    The goalkeepersAkihiro Hayashi (Vegalta Sendai)Tomoki Tagawa (Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo)
    Saves411
    Save %44%48%
    xG prevented25%33%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Vegalta Sendai
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vegalta Sendai vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo according to our model?

    The model gives Vegalta Sendai a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vegalta Sendai 55%, draw 26%, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.