Ventforet Kofu vs Jubilo Iwata: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

J2 League12 September 202624°1,1 mm6 km/h

Läs på svenska

Ventforet Kofu

Jubilo Iwata

The model's lean: 2 · Jubilo Iwata (34%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Ventforet Kofu @ 3.96 (+33 %)

1 · Ventforet Kofu 34%X 32%34% Jubilo Iwata · 2

34%

32%

34%

Analysis: Ventforet Kofu – Jubilo Iwata

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Ventforet Kofu have yet to find success against Jubilo Iwata, having lost both of their encounters since 2023. Though the head-to-head sample is small, the psychological edge could lean towards the visitors, who remain undefeated in this matchup. However, the model sees no clear favorite, assigning identical win probabilities to both sides at 34%, suggesting a finely balanced contest.

The expected goals offer a marginal nod to the hosts, with Kofu at 1.22 and Iwata at 1.13, indicating a tight affair likely driven by defensive solidity rather than offensive prowess. Weather conditions, with over 36 mm of rain forecasted, could further stifle attacking opportunities, likely contributing to the relatively low 42% probability for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is almost a coin flip at 48%, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring draw, most probably a 1-1.

Jubilo Iwata's form and head-to-head advantage suggest they might be marginally better placed, supported by the model's lean towards the visitors. Yet, the real intrigue lies in the potential value of betting on the hosts. With odds of 3.65 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and a model-implied probability of 34%, there’s a notable 23% expected value edge in backing Kofu.

Assessing all elements, a cautious prediction would steer towards a 1-1 draw, with under 2.5 goals slightly favored. However, the substantial value identified in Kofu's odds could tempt sharp bettors to side with the home team, despite the rain and past defeats.

Ventforet Kofu

Form LDLWW

Key players

Kazushi FujiiFxG 0.34 · xT 0.04
Sho ArakiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Kojiro YasudaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

Jubilo Iwata

Form DLWWL

Key players

Ryunosuke OtaFxG 0.22 · xT 0.14
Joao Victor Lopes do Nascimento SilveiraFxG 1.11 · xT 0.03
Kensuke FujiwaraCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Ventforet Kofu – Jubilo Iwata

Predicted score matrix

Jubilo Iwata →

Ventforet Kofu →

0–09.9%

0–110.4%

0–26.1%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.2%

1–113.5%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.1%

2–18.0%

2–24.5%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.9%

3–13.2%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,22–1,13

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.74EV+1%

Over 2,542%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Jubilo Iwata or draw (X2)62%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Jubilo Iwata or draw (X2)62%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Shion Inoue to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Yamato Naito to score18%
Seigo Takei to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Ventforet Kofu34% probability@3.96PinnacleEV+33%reference odds
1 · Ventforet Kofu34% probability@3.65BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
1 · Ventforet Kofu34% probability@3.65BetssonEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ventforet Kofu	X	2 · Jubilo Iwata
Betsafe	EV+ 23% 3.65	3.10	2.00
Betsson	EV+ 23% 3.65	3.10	2.00
Nordicbet	EV+ 23% 3.65	3.10	2.00
Pinnacle	EV+ 33% 3.96	EV+ 4% 3.24	2.02

Odds updated 11 Sept, 20:31

Odds movement

1+1 %

26 %21 %

3.91 → 3.96

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.22 → 3.24

2+3 %

50 %45 %

1.97 → 2.02

Over 2,5+1 %

48 %43 %

2.08 → 2.10

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ventforet Kofu 0Draw 0Jubilo Iwata 2

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ventforet Kofu

Jubilo Iwata

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ventforet Kofu (5–8)

Jubilo Iwata (7–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ventforet Kofu

Jubilo Iwata

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ventforet Kofu

Jubilo Iwata

The goalkeepers	Kodai Yamauchi (Ventforet Kofu)	Ayumi Niekawa (Jubilo Iwata)
Saves	10	12
Save %	63%	63%
xG prevented	27%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ventforet Kofu

Fixtures, form & tips

Jubilo Iwata

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ventforet Kofu vs Jubilo Iwata according to our model?

The model gives Jubilo Iwata a 34% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ventforet Kofu 34%, draw 32%, Jubilo Iwata 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.